Time’s Up! New Zealand’s Gun ‘Buyback’ Amnesty Ends…Poorly

New Zealand Police

A few months ago, in face-to-face conversations, I made a little prediction. Sadly, if I ever put it in writing somewhere, I can’t find it now. (ETA: Ah ha! I did document that prediction.)

As I watched and reported on the New Zealand firearm “buyback,” I noted the low rates of compliance, based on NZ government estimates of the number of firearms affected.

MP Brett Hudson estimated the number at 240,000, based on information from the NZ Police, an estimate that Deputy Commissioner Mike Clement did not dispute in a committee hearing in September (which is why I was using the figure for my compliance estimates).

I predicted that the New Zealand government, faced with very limited compliance, would, at the end of the amnesty period (that was today), suddenly revise the estimate sharply downward and declare success.

I wish I’d put that in writing because . . .

After mosque shootings, New Zealand’s gun buyback runs into an obstacle: gun owners

But a government-commissioned assessment by the KPMG professional services firm estimated that the number of banned guns could be between 50,000 and 170,000. …

Officials are hailing the policy as a success. “I just do not believe there’s 170,000. I believe we’ve got the majority of these guns in,” Police Minister Stuart Nash told New Zealand’s national broadcaster on Tuesday.

Nash would be the minister of the same police which gave MP Hudson those much greater numbers earlier. He knows better. I nailed it.

Just for giggles and grins, let’s pretend Nash is now correct, and they actually collected most of those firearms. New Zealand is now a safe space, an almost gun-free paradise for a disarmed populace. Except . . .

What is the one class we know did not turn in their guns?

That’s right. If Police Minister Nash is to be believed, the government has turned the country into a safe workplace for the criminal gangs who inexplicably declined to participate in the “buyback.”

But it’s all garbage. We know Nash is spinning this utter failure like a top, and everyone else is putting the low end of the affected firearms at over 170,000 (again, it’s probably 240,000). They collected 46,750 firearms.

  • 170,000: 27.5% compliance
  • 240,000: 19.5% compliance

Even in Cat-E “Military-Style Semi-Automatic” firearms — registered firearms — compliance was a piddly 44.9%. Less than half of registered owners of registered MSSAs surrendered their weapons.

I suspect the 2020 New Zealand general election is going to be nearly exciting as the one here in the United States.

Travis Poulson, 38, a hunting enthusiast from Auckland, said there was resentment toward the police.

You don’t say. So much for the once obligatory quotes from the police about how enthusiastic gun owners were about the confiscation.

Image source: Kent McManigal, www.dullhawk.com. Used with permission.


  1. avatar Southern Cross says:

    While gun owners are a minority, they certainly have enough numbers to change the outcome of elections.

    1. avatar uncommon_sense says:

      Only if they actually get off the couch and vote.

      1. avatar RGP says:

        Voting isn’t by choice in some places. Not sure about NZ, but it wouldn’t surprise me if voting is legally mandatory for citizens there, like it is in Australia and some other Commonwealth countries. And people who don’t vote get fined.

        1. avatar ROFuher says:

          All legal residents are required to register to vote, but actually casting a ballot is not compulsory.

      2. avatar Darkman says:

        From the “Roof Tops”?

    2. avatar Merle 0 says:

      Well you’ve also got to factor in the democrats vote the dead, and illegals.

      1. avatar James Campbell says:

        I remember when they caught poll workers in the south filling out ballots for dead friends, when asked why they did it the reply was, “well, we knew Tillie REALLY well so we know how she WOULD have voted, had she lived this long” .
        Drugging unreal.

    3. avatar Leighton Cavendish says:

      Probably way more gun owners than the numbers reflect…some may not be LEGAL gun owners, of course…

  2. avatar jeff says:

    I wonder what Virginia’s compliance rate will be if they outlaw semi-automatics. Probably not good.

    1. avatar RGP says:

      Compliance rate in VA would be the 3 guys who moved there from NY and CA who own a semi auto.

      1. avatar guy says:

        Lol that made my day good one!

      2. avatar KJW says:

        NY gun owners basically invented new-age noncompliance back in 2013 when the SAFE Act was passed and the registration numbers were incredibly small. It was the same for the gun sanctuary theory. Almost all of the counties decided against enforcing the new gun laws.

  3. avatar Thixotropic says:

    “An Armed Man Is a Citizen. A Disarmed Man is a Subject” Rep. Allen West (R-FL)

    1. avatar Truthteller says:

      We are all subjects, not citizens. Armed subjects are at least armed subjects. Disarmed subjects are slaves. Maybe someday, we will be citizens again.

      1. avatar James Campbell says:

        There are several types of slavery.
        Consumerism is also slavery.

        1. avatar Art out West says:

          Good point. Proverbs teaches us that the borrower is slave to the lender. 2nd Peter also tells us that we are enslaved by our own sin.
          “They promise them freedom, but they themselves are slaves of corruption. For whatever overcomes a person, to that he is enslaved.”

        2. avatar James Campbell says:

          Amen Art!
          I learned this in Catholic school, and my family did without things we couldn’t afford.
          I actually cut grass, trimmed hedges, shoveled snow, repaired small engines starting at around 13 yrs old to save for my first car. My dad matched what I had saved in 3 year’s to allow me to grab a 9yr old ’69 396 SS Chevelle with a manual trans from a neighbor (he bought it in ’70, he had just become a grandfather at 40.

  4. avatar HoundDogDave says:

    Although 4 out of every 5 firearms that the government can’t track still on the street may seem significant, the real challenge to the New Zealand government is the 11 out of 20 registered firearms that the owners KNOW the NZ government KNOWS exactly who and where they are still refused to give them up. Basically “Yep, I know you know I have the ‘now illegal gun’, dare you to come and get it.”

    1. avatar SKP5885 says:

      + This 1,000

  5. avatar Stephen Craig says:

    Someone needs to make shirts out of that Time’s Up flag

    1. avatar Mark N. says:

      Agreed. Nice take on an old meme.

      1. avatar Snake says:

        Snake is acting like it is blind, biting into nowhere. Put a caricature of your gun hating politician in front of it.

        1. avatar gene says:

          But “Red” Ralph Northam, Justin “#MeToo” Fairfax, and Mark “Respect Mah Authoritah” Herring are already caricatures…

  6. avatar Leighton Cavendish says:

    So when does the door to door search start?

    1. avatar MLee says:

      Never. They’ll say that until the cops tell them to kick rocks because they’re not about to go knock on doors. What they will do is make few cases super-duper high profile over the prosecution of someone who didn’t turn them in. Then they can say SEE, this is what happens when you defy the great and powerful OZ, and you also will be in big trouble if we catch you!!!

    2. avatar Victoria Illinois says:

      I want to see the video of them going to the gang members’ homes, house to house. You know, the ones who just said NO to the “buy “back”.

      1. avatar James Campbell says:

        Never happen. They will go to the middle class areas to collect guns, urban areas are dangerous.

    3. avatar James Campbell says:

      Any moment now according to moreadventuresonothetplanets.
      The Confiscators will prevail too, according to him.
      He ate a lot of paint chip sandwiches while growing up so cut him some slack.
      He might be retarded, but he’s TTAGs retard.

      1. avatar Derp says:

        …and James Campbell knows retarded!

        1. avatar James Campbell says:

          For sure!
          I see it from the JCFanClub, every day on TTAG.
          A good example is how there are numerous TTAG commenters that Derp has left unanswered in the past week. Shows you as nothing more then some punk ass bitch, wouldn’t dare flap his cock holster in a face to face discussion, for fear of having change made of his 2 dollar ass.
          Stay retarded JCFanClub.

        2. avatar Soothsayer says:

          Hey Jane Campbell: Do you think it’s okay for someone as angry as you to be able to possess guns?

        3. avatar James Campbell says:

          “Hey Jane Campbell: Do you think it’s okay for someone as angry as you to be able to possess guns?”
          So, you define a person who puts trolls in their place online as “angry”

        4. avatar James Campbell says:

          Added due to lack of edit button.
          I’ve been EDCing a firearm for almost 30 years now, yet to have a need to discharge a weapon in ANY setting outside of a range session.
          Wow, for being a hot-headed, angry, Charlie Manson man (the JCFanClub salad tossers words), that sure falls short of the BS persona you trolls make me out to be.
          That could be a talking point at the next FanClub meeting.
          Has that new member (50th) let everyone know what syrup you’ll be using to flavor the bungholes at the circular salad toss tonight? See, membership has its advantages.
          Well, enjoy your meeting tonight, and remember, it’s all about you.

        5. avatar James Campbell says:

          “You don’t put trolls in their place. You ramble angrily and incoherently. You should give up your car keys and your guns.”

          And yet the TTAG members in the last week have commented regularly about the FanClub being a bunch of butthurt crybaby snowflakes, that whine because they get pushback.

          Stay clueless, AND triggered JCFC.

      2. avatar James Campbell says:

        Well Cames Jampbell, you sure don’t believe the BS you spread on GB.
        The AUG was picked up from the FFL this evening, also two 5.56/.223 Magpul M-60rd drum mags arrived via FedEx on the doorstep.
        With your “Charlie M” statement directed toward me, that means only TWO conclusions can POSSIBLY be reached…….
        1) You’re a huge lying POS, who doesn’t believe for a second the BS you spew on TTAG, or……….
        2) You’re a HORRIBLE human being, who couldn’t care less about a firearm becoming accessible to a person you’re SURE is on the level of a deranged psycho like CManson. That would also mean you have a blatant disregard of the horrors gun violence victims and their families actually endure after a tragic event.
        I provided all the details of the GB transaction, the ATF could have easily questioned the transfer had you called and provided data/message screenshots to support your claim.
        So which are you, #1 or #2?
        Well, poor phrasing, we all known you’re a massive pile of #2!
        Are you the 1st or the 2nd. That’s better phrasing.
        We are still doing phrasing, right?

        Hey Cames, still waiting for a response on this, you fans concern over gun violence, yet fail to act.
        Pathetic lower case troll loser.

        1. avatar James Campbell says:

          Added post due to lack of Edit ability in TTAG comment section.
          Whoops, turned the lights on in this comment section, all the cockroach-like trolls scurried to the next TTAG story comment section to try again.
          Bye bye, cockroaches.
          Stay scurrying FanClub.

        2. avatar Canes Jampbell says:

          Yep, you’re stable…

        3. avatar James Campbell says:

          Stay pathetic loser.

        4. avatar James Campbell says:

          “Canes Jampbell says:
          Yep, you’re stable…”
          Says the person who took a TTAG username similar to the intended target of their lame troll.
          All the dispersions on others left you with ZERO time for self reflection.
          Such the lame moron move, accusing others of your non-existent cognitive stability.

        5. avatar James Campbell says:

          And trolls like you are why I scrape hairless nutsacks and cockroach entrails off my boots daily.
          Get back over to the shallow side of the internet, where your feet can touch the bottom. YOU ARE BEYOND YOUR DEPTH.

        6. avatar James Campbell says:

          “‘Men’ like you are the reason red flag laws exist”
          And these “red flag” laws of which you speak?
          This shows you absolute IGNORANCE of the laws as they apply to my (AND my two sons) firearms.
          ALL our firearms are in a TRUST (look it up moron), the firearms are owned by all three parties in the trust.
          Thanks for playing, don’t forget your parting gift.

  7. avatar GS650G says:

    How many prison cells are planned for construction next year?

      1. avatar GS650G says:

        They are going to need a lot more than that . I wonder if they will consider gun owners reformable or if the idea is to just ruin their lives as a warning to others?

        1. avatar Rusty - Molon Labe - Chains says:

          Using the original government estimate of 240,000 and they claim to have gotten about 40,000 of them. They got less than half of the “registered” guns that they know who has what. There aren’t enough beds in their prisons for even those folks. Maybe the voters will reject the crazy socialists that are currently in charge.

    1. avatar Jim from LI says:

      None.. they’ll just deport you to San Francisco, that’s punishment enough.

  8. avatar RCC says:

    NZ had Licencing for owners but not registration of rifles or shotguns. Pistols were registered. So the government is guessing numbers.

    The ever changing laws or regulations now want a 5 year licence at the cost of the previous 10 year and individual registration of each firearm.

    Spoke to some people there this morning and no one is admitting having semi autos but they seem to think plenty of guns still around.

    As I’ve said before – it’s better not to be on any government lists.

    1. avatar Southern Cross says:

      From customs they will know how many will be imported. They know how many were in-stock of gun shops when the ban was implemented. Plus the numbers returned in the buyback. The difference is the number still out there. And this depends on how accurate the import details from customs are.

  9. avatar Trimmed Sail Flyer says:

    Likewise, the state of Virginia can enact all the panty waisted, Constitution busting, gun grabber laws they want. But understand this: Bloomberg’s bought-and-paid-for Virginia legislators won’t be buying back, seizing or confiscating f’ing *jack shit* from its 🇺🇸citizens🇺🇸 come January 2020

    Just watch 🍿🤣🖕🏻

    1. avatar James Campbell says:

      I would bet militias would roll into VA should confiscations begin.
      A blackout of communications/internet/media coverage would cause some Patriotic groups to “have gun, will travel” to preserve the Republic.
      Keep your powder dry.

      1. avatar Derp says:

        ‘Keep your powder dry’, writes the coward who will be the first to surrender, comply and narc on the real patriots.

        1. avatar James Campbell says:

          Focus some of that energy into the dozens of responses you left unanswered in the last few day.
          Your like a person with Alzheimers, going and getting a bottle of water from the fridge every time you’re thirsty, and having a few dozen open bottles with a sip taken out of each one.
          Have you ever finished anything? Like, in your whole life?
          When did you drop out of High School, 15?

  10. avatar Gadsden Flag says:

    There’s been a lot of ink spilled on this thing in in New Zealand. I for one could give a shit less. It’s in another hemisphere. Why not post articles about firearms laws in Siberia. Same thing. Let’s concentrate on what is going on in the United States of America.

    1. avatar James Campbell says:

      The left have stated that Australia and N.Z. are good “models” for the U.S. to follow.
      We need to keep an eye on it because the enemies of the 2nd A are taking notes.

    2. avatar Grumpy Old Guy says:

      Respectfully, NZ has a lot of similarities to the US, relative to Russia. Think same language, settle in the same general time as the US by many of the same immigrants. It has kept a democracy intact, just less individual freedoms. If you spent time there, except for the driving on the wrong side of the road and the funny accents, you would be comfortable most of the time. Those similarities drive the concern for me, what we see happening there could very well happen here down the road if we continue to erode individual freedoms. Russia does not have the same freedoms to begin with, they are essential DOA.

      1. avatar Ross says:

        Well said, as a former Kiwi I agree, but I do need to point out Russia does issue concealed weapons permits now.

  11. avatar Possum and the Coons of Doom says:

    We think what is penalty for no turn in gunm? Are you now the felon? We think not fail for the Takers. New Zealand need piece of paper say, The Right To Bare Arms Shall Not Be Infringed, kinda sorta until We want to. Leading the way in U.S.A,,,,,,,,oh p.s.We’ aint buying or eaten no gdamn chicken from China, they can forget that

  12. avatar John Smith says:

    Virginia gun owners and VCDL – we need to start educating people about jury nullification also.

  13. Who would have thought that gangbangers would not turn in their guns?

    1. avatar James Campbell says:

      See, that’s the thing. The idiots faciliting these action DON’T think.

  14. avatar Bierce Ambrose says:

    They created some 100,000’s new criminals, established a discretionary charge to pile or, and/or justify invasion, search, seizure, detention, for people they don’t like, and reinforced their collaboration with knownfo, armed, organized crime. (While doing nothing about the way the unwasted crisis, used to release the pogrom, kraken, regulation onslaught program waiting in the wings, actually came about.)

    So, working as intended, really.

  15. avatar Sisted Twister says:

    Headline is a little skewed, the takeaway from NZ is that a large amount of the population willingly disarmed.

    They got alot of guns handed over in a really really short amount of time. And attrition over time will net huge amounts more. Seems like a bloodless win for the govt.

    When a President Warren or Bernie or whichever red eventually seizes power they will look to the “New Zealand Model” as their example.

    1. avatar James Campbell says:

      I heard they’re going to call in Cameltoe Harris to be the “Door Breached” on most of the confiscation raids.
      I bet she’ll be stoned and listening to Tupac on her Comm headset while “splitting skulls” of those bad, BAD gun owners.
      She’s a damn hero, dontchaknow.

      1. avatar James Campbell says:

        Door BREECHER.

        1. avatar James Campbell says:

          Ok, thanks for sharing.
          Now get back to the FanClub salad toss, ass-breath

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