I’ve been following the New Zealand firearm “buyback” with some amusement as I ran estimates on the compliance rate based on NZ Police turn-in reports and NZ government guesstimates of the number of affected firearms. (It’s a measly 16.5% as of November 24.)
News of the “buyback” privacy breach has added extra humor value. Sorry, Kiwi gun owners who were complying; I’m sure you weren’t laughing.
But privacy issues aside, I am. And not merely at the gross incompetence displayed. I’m encouraged by the additional proof of non-compliance.
Government estimates of the number of newly banned firearms range from an early 173,000 to, finally, 240,000. I’ve been rolling with the final 240K figure.
At the end of November, 21,655 people had been paid for 36,045 firearms. That works out to an average 1.66 firearms per person.
Reports have it that people turning their firearms had to pre-register online through the breached web site. A total of 38,000 people registered and now have their personal and financial data endangered.
There are only 17 days left in the amnesty period, so you’d expect that pretty much everyone who had any intention of complying would have registered by now.
Only 38,000. Let’s assume that the 1:1.66 ratio holds true. That would account for 63,080 firearms or 26.3% compliance.
I had been projecting 19.8% assuming no sudden, last-minute rush, and turn-in rates holding steady. But I also figured some folks would get cold feet in the final weeks and decide to turn in their property, especially registered Cat-E “military-style semiautomatic” owners since the government does know who they are (but 60% of even those aren’t complying yet).
I had speculated that the New Zealand government would stop reporting turn-in numbers out of sheer embarrassment. Then they’d dust off early lowball estimates and simply declare the amnesty a success.
Now this breach fiasco just gives them a better opportunity to do so.