I’ve been following the New Zealand firearm “buyback” with some amusement as I ran estimates on the compliance rate based on NZ Police turn-in reports and NZ government guesstimates of the number of affected firearms. (It’s a measly 16.5% as of November 24.)
News of the “buyback” privacy breach has added extra humor value. Sorry, Kiwi gun owners who were complying; I’m sure you weren’t laughing.
But privacy issues aside, I am. And not merely at the gross incompetence displayed. I’m encouraged by the additional proof of non-compliance.
Government estimates of the number of newly banned firearms range from an early 173,000 to, finally, 240,000. I’ve been rolling with the final 240K figure.
At the end of November, 21,655 people had been paid for 36,045 firearms. That works out to an average 1.66 firearms per person.
Reports have it that people turning their firearms had to pre-register online through the breached web site. A total of 38,000 people registered and now have their personal and financial data endangered.
There are only 17 days left in the amnesty period, so you’d expect that pretty much everyone who had any intention of complying would have registered by now.
Only 38,000. Let’s assume that the 1:1.66 ratio holds true. That would account for 63,080 firearms or 26.3% compliance.
I had been projecting 19.8% assuming no sudden, last-minute rush, and turn-in rates holding steady. But I also figured some folks would get cold feet in the final weeks and decide to turn in their property, especially registered Cat-E “military-style semiautomatic” owners since the government does know who they are (but 60% of even those aren’t complying yet).
I had speculated that the New Zealand government would stop reporting turn-in numbers out of sheer embarrassment. Then they’d dust off early lowball estimates and simply declare the amnesty a success.
Now this breach fiasco just gives them a better opportunity to do so.
Yep. About the same level of compliance for 80% home builds here in CA, I suspect. I know of only one person who built a gun and then voluntarily contacted the CADOJ to register it. Everyone else simply builds and keeps their items in the safe…planning for the day they move out of CA.
Ive seen YouTube video of Police coming to collect entire expensive collections in Cali because there was a paperwork error on one thing someone registered.
I will not comply. But I might have to take the leaky ol’ rowboat out into Lake Michigan for some deep water fishing, brining some extra gear for the trip.
Let me rephrase: I currently follow MI pistol registration law as it has been in place nearly 100 years. I will not comply if any new unconstitutional laws are passed.
Tough talk is cheap at a computer key board but reality is very different. No sane person is going to risk a long jail term, loss of a job, loss of custody of his children and a big fine and bankruptcy. The alternative is to not comply and get a visit from a gang of thugs in uniform wearing jack boots and pounding rifle butts on your door at 3 A.M. yelling “Raus!, Raus”!
Cool story bro
That’s a very inviting picture you’ve painted, Mr. Moreadventures. I’m curious. Do you think the registration schemes and other restrictions rolling down the pike are a good thing, or do you mean to say that when they’re inevitably enacted we should just accept it and knuckle under?
Vlads alter ego is hoping for raids, frog marches, and zip tied guns tossed into trunks.
I guess that on some planet I’m not sane.
My “I will not comply!” T-shirt from Colion Noir just got delivered.
Well Wolfie, that threat doesn’t seem to be working in Australia or New York right now.
Eer, if you follow one, no matter how old, you are cognitive of all. I must have missed your point. But, I’m weird, I speed everywhere except school zones and inside city, limits. Btw there are no legitimate laws concerning firearms.
Anotherplanet & Sam Hill. I have a professional license and a job/family to be responsible for. Currently I am a law abiding gun owner, but I have drawn my line in the sand moving forward. Tough talk/typing isn’t just talk when I don’t hide behind a VPN or alter too much of my identity. I will probably be easy to find.
Vlad is also for renditioning gun owners to a secure facility, conducting enhanced interrogations to determine the extent of their guilt, and then herding the survivors of the enhanced interrogations into the “showers” for delousing.
Whatever the penalty for non compliance is, it still beats the hell out of the penalty for compliance which we have seen in numerous nations over the course of human history.
Recent examples include Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Cambodia, China, Vietnam, North Korea, Cuba, and everybody’s current favorite vacation spot Venezuela.
If we are going to lose everything, suffer, and die either way then I would rather do so knowing I stood up against it.
On the other hand, as Solzhenitsyn pointed out, “The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt!” Maybe if enough of us refuse to comply LEO that are not on our side will reconsider enforcing any
Or you can read AG Opinion 7304 which I helped write and not register any pistol acquisitions in MI.
Never keep them all in one place.
How about “…and keeps their items in the *other* safe…”
“The alternative is to not comply and get a visit from a gang of thugs in uniform wearing jack boots and pounding rifle butts on your door at 3 A.M. yelling “Raus!, Raus”!”
Hey another planet, who’s to say this is not the final step in following all the regulations/laws?
This has historically been the case when registration is enacted.
That is exactly what I did!!
Incompetence and Tyranny by authoritarian leftist politicians. It just doesn’t stop. Thomas Jefferson once said that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”
This is what happens when the Government gets to be in charge of just about anything. I hope the Kiwis keep their powder dry.
Australia’s 1996 National Firearms Agreement from the day of its imposition to present has had less than a 40% compliance rate. The Australian Government predicted that almost 1.8 million out of a little over 4 million firearms would be surrendered to them, but that number is only around 700,000…….that’s called FAILURE!
Australia today has almost 1.4 million Licensed Firearms Owners and about 5 million Guns, and looking at New Zealand now, I expect the compliance rate to be even worse than Australia.
Looks like over 60 percent of Australian gun owners did not agree to the “agreement”.
Past history in other countries has proven it takes time to get most all of them. There will probably be an amnesty period in conjuncture with a couple of high profile arrests and long prison terms. This will start the last clean up flow of firearms during the amnesty and then on to the smelter.
Is that you Wolftracker? Past history says you are an idiot. When the Wall came down all sorts weapons came out hiding. We aren’t just talking about an old Mauser or two. Machinguns, grenades and even mortars made an appearance. Even the Communists could disarm Eastern Europeans.
It’s been a quarter century since Australia confiscated weapons and still most prohibited weapons have not been turned in. Everyplace where confiscation has been tried is still awash with weaponry.
Should read “could not disarm”
Exactly, and again; 23 years later, Australia has had under 40% compliance with their 1996 Gun Confiscation.
It is damned well known that the other 60% of those guns in Aus are still out there and being used.
Every time the police raid a Outlaw Motorcycle gang club house they always find a collection of prohibited (ie: once legal but not since 1996) or never legal weapons. The latter include submachine guns.
Obviously someone forgot to tell the criminals. Or perhaps criminals just don’t follow the law?
The funny thing about it is that over the last 10 years, Category C Firearms such as Semiautomatic Rimfires of 10 rounds or less, and Semiautomatic/Pump Action Shotguns with less than 6 rounds are making a massive comeback in Australia, and it coincides with the 500,000 new Gun Owners of the last decade.
More people who find themselves fitting the requirements for Category C Firearms are getting them.
Even New York couldn’t get compliance with their gun laws and this was before the SAFE act.
Usually the government has to kill most of the people disarming them. Thats the real history..
I would not be surprised if many of the people turning in banned weapons own multiples and are only pretending to comply.
This, when the government goes door to door, people have three options.
Opt 1: Play dumb, say you don’t own anything. Government shows online records from traitorous ISPs, banks, and CC companies and you get culled as a bad citizen who lied to the party.
Opt 2: Shoot it out, you might win, you might not. If you do, join the civil war, if you don’t well, hope you know Jesus.
Opt 3: Let the jackboots have free run of your home and let them search everything, hurricane the place, and take what they think is everything, because they know you have something based on data-mined records. Once they are gone, clean up, go dig up your other weaponry and live to fight another day, likely more effectively.
Aren’t you a bright ray of sunshine.
Arc’s comment is dead-nuts accurate and truthful.
Like it or not, sometimes the truth is not very appealing.
I’m neither a pessimist nor an idealist, but a realist. Unfortunately a realist is often confused with a pessimist and I believe that alone is a sign of the times.
If it comes to that remember that there are plenty of guns in police cars.
And all the cops have a gun on them. You just have to convince them to let you take it.
It’s still a win for them. They know that in 1-2 generations the gun culture will have been destroyed. It takes a certain kind of person to openly thumb their nose at petty tyrants and continue to own contraband firearms, and the chances your children or grandchildren will continue the resistance to the petty tyrants is far from guaranteed. In 100 years, how many semi auto rifle will still be out there in Australia or New Zealand? I would say it will be fairly low. When uncle Frank dies, the family will just rush to the nearest police station to turn his collection in. They are playing the long game and they can be patient now that their “law” is in place. It doesn’t matter if there are still mass shootings, or crime. That is not the point. The point is civilian disarmament of the most useful weapons, while allowing you to keep sub standard or obsolete weapons to placate you.
Varies by culture I think. Appalachia has multiple generations of absolutely not giving a damn about what the law happens to say when it’s something they do not agree with. Philly had several neighborhoods with a similar outlook and I have found upstate New York to have an unexpected passive lawless streak as well. But given enough time and effort numbers could be brought down low enough to reduce the threat of a commoner rebellion.
Even in the belly of the beast they cannot get compliance
Laws can be changed. Look at a concealed carry map from 1980 and look at today.
The New Zealand government and police especially seem to be taking all of the worst ideas from Australian “buy back” and none of the “good” ones.
Australia paid on the spot without any i.d. requirements. NZ preregistration and pay six to 8 weeks later into bank account.
Australia over paid for most things. People were making “machine gun” springs out of fencing wire, magazines from sheet metal etc and selling them. NZ is offering a range of 90% for new in box down to 30% for very used. Police get to define the percentage. Spare parts, mags etc are I believe 50% max.
NZ is not giving option to sell overseas. Lots of Australians sent guns to New Zealand and USA.
10 year licence became 5 years in August at bigger cost for renewal.
New Zealand grab seems to be mostly a way for police and government to avoid mentioning the shooter did not comply with Licencing laws but they approved his application anyway. Laziness or bribe was a guessing point when I was over there in July.
Not surprised at all… the New Zealand president is a Mormon… Its no wonder this was all about feelings… Its the base of the Cult, if it feels good its “god’s” will… if it feels bad its the devil… So rounding up all the guns makes her feel good because she’s doing something… Not finding the root of the problem… Not taking guns from the criminals… It just makes her feel good, so it must be the Mormon god’s will
I think her cult is socialism. She joined Labour Party at 17 and all her “employment” has been left wing political.
The few Mormons I know are very anti communist.
She actually isn’t one anymore. She had radically different views from them, so she left and became an agnostic.
I know several Mormons, NONE of them are democrats, much less socialists.
All this crap about the people unlikely to keep “illegal guns is bollocks. People all over the world keep them and use them quite regularly even lending them to others without bothering about what big brother thinks.
When the last politician, gang banger, crook and serial killer give up their guns I will turn mine in.
Australia tried that in 1996 and now there are more guns than there ever were before the confiscation.