Chicago Police via CPD twitter 1
Courtesy Chicago Police Department
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The Illinois Bail Reform Act of 2017 mandated that judges impose “affordable” bail to criminal suspects arrested by police. Theoretically, the law was to apply only to misdemeanor and minor felony arrests. However Cook County judges, under orders from Cook County’s Chief Judge, Tim Evans, have brazenly applied the law to all but the worst offenders.

Implementation of this new law has emptied out Cook County’s jails by tens of thousands of inmates since the summer of 2017.  While “decarceration” has saved Cook County $143 per day per inmate, local residents and visitors have paid in blood.

Judge Evans released a junk science report that allegedly found no increase in violent crime from releasing felons under the “affordable” bail provisions.  The mainstream media dutifully and gleefully and reported the same.

From NPR:

Report: Cook County Bail Reform Reduced Jail Population Without More Crime

Major bail reforms in Cook County led to a decrease in the number of people held in jail, but the reforms did not increase violent crime, according to a report released Thursday by the office of Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans.

According to the report, in the 15 months following the reform, from October 2017 to December 2018, the average daily jail population dropped by 16%, from 6,940 to 5,799. Meanwhile, the percentage of felony defendants committing crimes while out on bond remained stable between the 15-month period before the reform and the 15 months after the changes.

However, a more scientific study available for peer review among fellow researchers has found something entirely different.

From a study done by Paul Cassell and Richard Fowles from the University of Utah:

Properly measured and estimated, after more generous release procedures were put in place, the number of released defendants charged with committing new crimes increased by 45%. And, more concerning, the number of pretrial releasees charged with committing new violent crimes increased by an estimated 33%.

In addition, as reported by the Chicago Tribune, the Study’s data appears to undercount the number of releasees charged with new violent crimes; and a substantial number of aggravated domestic violence prosecutions prosecutors dropped after the changes, presumably because batterers were able to more frequently obtain release and intimidate their victims into not pursuing charges.

These public safety concerns call into question whether the bail “reform” measures implemented in Cook County were cost-beneficial. And because Cook County’s procedures are state-of-the-art and track those being implemented in many parts of the country, Cook County’s experience suggests that other jurisdictions may similarly be suffering increases in crime due to bail reform.

Admittedly, many of those arrested on felony charges couldn’t post bail under the previous law.  So, have those suspects suddenly seen the light and behaved themselves once they were released under the 2017 bail reform law? Hardly.

CWB Chicago has found that 16 assailants in 2021 murders were free on “affordable” bail awaiting trial on one or more previous felony arrests.

Sights are overrated. Chicago Police regularly grab up guns like these from individuals out on “affordable” bail. Image via Chicago Police Twitter.

Thanks to we know Chicago police have identified suspects in only 49 of 450 murder cases (some involving more than one murder victim).

Putting some public school math to work, that means 32.7% — one-third — of all known homicide suspects through August 12th where known, were out under the 2017 Illinois bail Reform Act.

Given that Chicago Police have only managed to identify suspects in 49 of 450 murder cases to date, that would suggest that other offenders out on “affordable” bail could be responsible for upwards of 150 cases, or about 163 criminal homicides. This, of course, doesn’t count those who were released and committed other violent crimes which maimed, but did not kill other innocents.

Looking at it another way, if judges returned to imposing bail amounts commensurate with the charges against the arrestee coupled with his or her likelihood to re-offend in a way that might endanger the safety and well-being of others in the community, Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s Paradise By the Lake homicide numbers might be up to one third lower than the current 513 as of this writing.

In a time when some politicians love to say, “if it saves just one life” to promote new laws and regulations, what do we tell all those families whose loved ones died at the hands of people out of jail on “affordable” bail following one or more felony arrests?

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    • Similar to what’s happening here in CA, eh jwm?

      When you experiment on a society by both (1) intentionally washing any belief in Divine moral structure [and consequences] from the minds of the next generation and (2) expand the legal latticework to encompass increasingly activity as “criminal”, you’ll inevitably end up with the double whammy of more young people committing crimes as well as more activities defined as crimes. The incarceration rate rises to the point where that society simply cannot contain them anymore under the old structure. So you either release them early, or don’t incarcerate them at all.

      EDIT FOR 2021: Don’t even prosecute certain crimes, such as here in Los Angeles where our fearless D.A. Gascon has instructed City attorneys to ignore petty thefts, trespassing, public intoxication, verbal threats, prostitution, and more. #winning [/sarc]

  1. Killed by someone and not killed by the gun? That should have got some democRat panties in a wad. They must be slipping because of Benghazi…I mean Afghanistan.

  2. Coming soon to NYC if they can figure out how to shoot. May be for the best most of our shootings in the Capital District tend to be to the legs and/or random.

  3. This is my shocked and surprised face…

    That braced pistol is a S&W 15-22 – complete with 25 round loaded magazine… Seems to be an odd choice for a gang-banger out on bail…

      • And depending on measurements potentially legal (technically) even under the SAFE Act if it meets that “other” definition. Cheap, stolen, and borderline obsolescent do make up a lot of the weapons that turn up in crime but we do get a few that are more likely than not straw purchases for the gang as well as the occasional home built. Personally I am just annoyed I cannot own the extended magazines.

        • Potentially legal only until that SBA3 gets outlawed by the Sniffy Joe AFT and since it likely was shipped with that by Smith so the rightful owner won’t even be allowed to modify it into legal status.

  4. Regardless of spin from any direction on data, I find it difficult to believe that anyone who drops the hammer on another human for the first time has not committed numerous felonies prior to the first shooting or murder, whether previously convicted or not.

    I suppose with so many gangstas only being charged with felonies but then being out on no bail/recognizance when they do murder someone, the stats would claim the assailant had not yet been convicted of felonies and that would show the program of catch and release to be a huge success.

    It’d be interesting to see if someone defending one’s self with a firearm and who is not prohibited from owning
    /possessing one would get the same no-bail treatment…

    • Watching that very topic but not a lot of data thus far. We will likely need to FOIL that data which may be delayed for release longer than our Governor’s sexual harassment training certification.

      • Stalling almost always seems to work. Almost got Cuomo off the hook, in fact he’s about the first dem in modern history who didn’t beat the rap by waiting it out with the help of the media accomplices. (Well, other than Franken and a few absolutely more blatant “me too” scum who were expendable. I’m betting there’ll be little further inquest into all the old people he ordered murdered with his Kung Flu policies.

        • “Well, other than Franken …”

          Al ‘Grabby Hands’ Franken resigned from the Senate.

          That was at the leading edge of the ‘Me Too movement’, so there was no escape for SNL Al…

  5. Bail should not be available to anyone not having a legitimate job or farm to take care of.
    Letting someone out on bail when their job is stealing cars is dumb.

  6. The promoters of Prop 47 in California and releasing people on “no bail” will never admit that they are the cause of all the spikes in violence in major cities.

    Because a Libertarians Liberals in the Left who supported these insane policies do not live in or anywhere near the cities.

      • In San Francisco district attorney Boudin is not concerned about property crime. His parents were convicted of property crimes. That is, they stole money from Banks. And murdered people in the process. His parents were members of the terrorist group The Weather Underground. They also planted car bombs in the attempt to kill police officers.

        Both Libertarians an attorney Boudin supported proposition 47 in California. And they both support bail reform. Now Libertarians are trying to separate themselves from what they helped create in the first place. A crime wave in San Francisco and in other major cities in the United States.
        In this video the libertarian interviewer tries to make it seem that child molester crimes should be prosecuted. But he and other Libertarians total support allowing child molesters to Cross into the United States, from the open borders that Libertarians support.

        This video is a great example of libertarian damage control.

        While Americans are being forced to wear masks again. The Biden Administration is allowing illegal aliens free travel into the United States. And no government official is forcing them to wear a mask or require them to be tested for covid-19.

        Will the Spike in Murder and Violence Undermine Criminal Justice Reform? 12 min long.

  7. The DemoCommies do not care about the death and suffering they cause because they are confident they control the election apparatus in most of our major cities. With control of the vote count, and control of local law enforcement, they have no accountability.

    Now, with the commies in control of the Federal Government and Justice, the big city Communist Party Leaders think they have nothing to fear.

    But it is coming…their downfall is coming…the social and economic perversions they are pushing will bring a backlash.

    Watch for it…be a part of it…

    • With today’s fall of Kabul and multiple videos circulating the Internet of Afghanis falling to their deaths from a C-17 (literally clinging to the landing gear) as it takes off from the runway, this may become known to history as Biden’s “Saigon moment”. And with Pelosi commending him on a “job well done” despite this, even CNN has finally turned on them.

      …when you lose even lapdog CNN, you know you’re circling the porcelain portal for the final time.

      • Haz,

        Exactly so.

        I doubt there are many rank-and-file military will support the Dems post-Afganistan.
        I doubt there are many rank-and-file LEOs who will support the destroy-the-blue Democrat Communist Party.
        Likely, not many residential landlords, either.
        Probably not the folk who have seen their cities burn.
        Certainly not the gun-owners who want to keep their guns.
        Nor the employers who cannot run their businesses because free Wuhan-cash is still available.
        And certainly not anyone for whom rapid inflation, especially at the pump, is forcing uncomfortable choices.
        And when the food shortages become real, who will vote for the DCP that wants us all dependent upon Federal charity? (625 grocery stores in eastern Washington and Idaho had their distribution center shut down due to 4 Wuhan virus cases. Food shortages have become real there, but notice only in the red part of Washington.)

        The DemoCommunist Party is like the digestive system: everything it touches turns into excrement, except, no nutrition is extracted along the way….only poison.

        • LifeSavor,

          I wish that you were right. Sadly, I believe that you are wrong. The masses have absolutely no idea what is going on, much less why it is happening nor who is causing it.

          John Newbern’s Law:

          People can be divided into three groups:
          1) Those who make things happen
          2) Those who watch things happen, and
          3) Those who wonder what happened.

          I would actually modify his law to include a fourth category of people:

          4) Those who pay no attention to what has happened nor what is happening.

          The greatest tragedy of all–I would bet a month’s pay that well over 90% of our population falls into that fourth category who pay no attention to what has been, is, and will happen. If that is true, then a giant mass of our population will scream for government to help them through shortages (of everything, not just food) and happily vote for politicians who promise to alleviate the shortages without any regard for whether or not those politicians can actually deliver on their promises.

    • LifeSavor, they are also counting on getting people addicted to being coddled by the government. There are some recent polls that prove it’s working.

  8. How many of Chicago’s murders, committed by defendants out on low or no bail for previous violent crimes, are one hood rat killing another? A dead hood rat with his hood rat murderer locked up is a plus two for the community. Low or no bail reduces it to a plus one. My sympathies are reserved for the decent people (the majority) who must live in these neighborhoods, because they can’t afford better, and get caught in the crossfire or are targeted by the criminals.

  9. I fundamentally disagree with the white Libertarians about what is most, important to alleviate the problems of black people in the United States. The white Libertarians believe black people should be able to legally sell poison to each other. I on the other hand believe that eliminating the welfare industrial complex, is much more important in changing the lives of black people for the better.

    White libertarians seem to think that the War on Drugs is what caused families to be separated. But long before drugs entered the situation, the father and his love and his discipline, were separated from the family by a welfare check. The father’s guns were replaced by the guns of a big city police department.

    I like Dave Smith. There are many things I agree with him on. He finally calls Libertarians “useful idiots” for supporting the tech companies in their efforts to destroy private business. And to destroy the ability of people to communicate with each other. But his problem is he is fixated on making sure that black people need to be able to legally sell poison to each other.

    And in his own words seems less concerned about the effects of a welfare state on the traditional black family. And I have never liked Nick Gillespie.

    1. “Useful Idiots” 1min 35 sec mark
    2. “drugs and blacks”. 1hr 15 min mark
    3. “He really, really, wants to end big business government welfare”:. 50 min mark
    4. But ending family government welfare is not that big a priority with Libertarians. 1hr 10 min mark.
    5. Libertarians fight a culture war??? And why should parents raise their own children??? 1 hr 2 min
    6. And At 1 hr and 4 min mark Nick Gillespie demonstrates why Christians have an “irrational hatred” for Libertarians.

    Reason TV 1 hr 30 min long
    Dave Smith on Big Tech Censorship, Lockdowns, and Running for President

  10. “The father’s guns were replaced by the guns of a big city police department”……..
    Back before the “Great Society” programs got started, very few black family men had guns. Legitimate gun use was socially forbidden to law abiding blacks in most areas of our country. The white cops would give any black man trouble for having a gun, since gangsters used guns, the good people and their church leaders frowned upon guns, more so in the black community than they do today.
    “the father and his love and his discipline” bordered on child abuse in many families(both black and white), by today’s standards and even by the standards of the time. I remember seeing kids black and blue(3-10 year olds), hearing the beatings go on for minutes, sometimes all of the children in a family, potty training an 19 month old by spanking for mistakes. That is not something I wish to ever see or hear again. A spank on the backside with an open hand is one thing, but when switches came out and cut the skin or leather belts, razor strops and the like is not loving discipline, it is child abuse.

  11. According to the Biden administration more people were shot and killed in Chiraq this weekend than in Kabul in what is described as a mostly peaceful Islamic change of power.

  12. Chicago in a nutshell in 2021:

    Defendants on the electronic monitoring system as of May 17 include:
    94 individuals charged with murder. Four years ago, that number was 31.
    261 individuals charged as armed habitual criminals — meaning, at least two prior felony convictions.
    Four years ago, that number was 15.
    534 individuals charged as felons in possession of a weapon. Four years ago, that number was 89.
    569 individuals charged with aggravated unlawful use of a weapon. Four years ago, that number was 182.
    33 individuals charged with vehicular hijacking. Four years ago, that number was six.
    53 individuals charged with domestic battery. Four years ago, that number was 13.

    Lets look at the first two lines:
    94 individuals charged with MURDER.
    261 individuals charged as armed habitual criminals.
    These people are wearing ankle bracelets, 94 people charged with MURDER?
    261 armed habitual criminals? Chicago cant make room for 255 charged with VERY serious crimes?
    94 murders and yet Illinois makes more “gun laws” that punish the law abiding.
    The carjackers would be up there but last year: 1396 carjackings, 55 arrests. 3.9% caught.

  13. Report cited by NPR uses the wrong metric:
    “the percentage of felony defendants committing crimes while out on bond remained stable” – if the PERCENTAGE stays stable while the number of those out on bond increases dramatically, the math clearly works out to a proportional increase in crimes, just as one would expect.

  14. The NPR report you cite is from 2019 and deals with 2017.
    That is when the numbers were significantly lower as in four years ago.
    The report I cited is from 5/21/21 and isn’t an NPR report, it’s from Cook County.
    The first thing that’s obvious is the numbers have gone up quite a bit.
    The second is forget the metrics, releasing 94 people charged with murder with an ankle bracelet is a bad idea. Also the same goes for 261 individuals charged as armed habitual criminals.
    I am citing two of the many crimes that people are charged with.
    As in: How would you like someone charged with MURDER to live next door to you with a ankle bracelet on? Perhaps you would feel better with armed habitual criminals?
    They can come over to your house and kill you and never set of their bracelet alarm.

    Sheriff Tom Dart (He is an idiot) has been sounding alarms:

    “There’s a population on home monitoring that was never meant to be on it, including 92 or 93 who are charged with murder,” he told us. “I’ve been pleading with judges. These are violent people who are a danger to the community. We can’t keep doing this.”

    Your math doesn’t work out because four years ago the numbers were much lower.
    The people charged with murders and armed habitual criminals totaled 46 in 2017.
    An increase in crime by 46 people isn’t going to be perceptible in a city of 2.7 million.
    Bail reform and letting people charged with murder walk around does not work.
    Murder is perhaps the most serious crime you can be charged with,
    you shouldn’t have a low or no bail because of Covid.
    They sit in their abode and generally behave as far as Cook County knows.
    This is used when they work out a plea with Kim Foxx (She is an idiot) for a greatly reduced sentence.
    Why is Chicago’s crime rate through the roof? This is part of the answer.
    518 homicides YTD. 522 homicides for all of 2020.
    Chicago will pass 2020 in homicides by this weekend or before.
    There’s your metric.


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