Data Reveals Murders and Violent Crime Decrease as More People Carry Guns

John Lott has published his Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2020 and there’s lots of good news in it.

  • The number of concealed handgun permits has soared to over 19.48 million – a 34% increase over 2016.
  • Seventeen states no longer provide data on all the people who are legally carrying a concealed handgun because people in those states no longer need a permit to carry.
  • Permits for women and minorities continue to increase at a much faster rate than for either men or whites.
  • Five states now have over 1 million permit holders: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Florida is the first state to have over 2 million permits.

And more. On personal note, I’m proud that my own state is one of those with a million-plus. That’s particularly impressive, because the last time I checked, we were only around 700,000; about 1 in 8 adults.

Other goods news is that chart above. It shows the murder rate has declined as the CCW rate increases. That’s not news to TTAG regulars, but it’s nice to see it confirmed for yet another year. In case some gun-grabbing type wants to argue that the murder rate trend is really almost flat, so it doesn’t mean anything, take a look at the CCW vs. violent crime trend. Concealed carry is up while violent crime down.

But the trend is even more noticeable, to the point where one cannot honestly deny it.

I’m looking forward to next year’s report, which should reflect 2020’s millions of new gun owners. Good job, people. Keep it up, and let’s get those new folks trained and carrying.

comments

  1. avatar Nope says:

    Le gasp! Its almost as if risk vs reward is a thing. (Sarc)

    1. avatar Darkman says:

      Here they go again trying to confuse Lefty Liberals with data to prove a point. Everyone knows Snowflake Liberals are ruled by their emotions. If it makes them feel good about themselves it’s Okay. If it makes them feel bad, it’s Evil. Once again Trying to teach pigs to sing, While knowing it wastes your time and annoys the pigs.

  2. avatar Dennis Sumner says:

    Probably not gonna see this on CNN, eh?

  3. avatar jwm says:

    One 17yo with one rifle shut down violent riots. He shot 3 felons. 2 of them will never offend again.

    Guns in private hands stops crime and protects the innocent. This terrifies the left, for some reason.

    1. avatar RGP says:

      And Henchman #3 aka “Lefty” will probably be happy with a disability payment on account of he can’t work.

      1. avatar LarryinTX says:

        He gets double credit for a workplace injury, right? His workplace after midnight with a gun in his hand threatening a child?

    2. avatar sound awake says:

      one will likely not ever offend with his right hand again

      1. avatar Hush says:

        He gave an arm to be there and lucky he didn’t give a leg too.

      2. avatar Southern Cross says:

        The sound of one hand fapping.

        But he will have lots of Bolshie chicks willing to give him their services for his sacrifice for the revolution.

        1. avatar SAFEupstateFML says:

          He is welcome to the herp.

      3. avatar possum says:

        one may draw a disability check for the rest of their life too

    3. avatar zerofoo says:

      An educated populace that can defend and provide for itself doesn’t really need much in the way of governance.

      That’s what scares the left.

      They want to keep us dumb, defenseless, and dependent.

  4. avatar JasonM says:

    Correlation does not imply causation. The two graphs could be related, or they could be coincidence.

    Does this relationship hold up if we go to the state or county level? Did states that saw a rapid increase in permits, like Florida, see a rapid decrease in crime, while states that were late to the permit process, like Illinois, see a stagnant or increasing crime rate until they passed their permit law?

    This relationship doesn’t prove permits reduce crime, but it does deflate the argument that legal concealed carry will cause blood in the streets and turn every traffic accident into a shootout.

    1. avatar BluesMike says:

      Read his books. The overall answer is yes. However, he is very critical of his own data and will give you (at length) every potential pitfall of his data and methods. Probably the most honest economist and in general, scientist, in the last 25 years.

      1. avatar Bil says:

        The same guy who pretended to be someone else to praise himself? Dude lost credibility with that and similar stunts.

        1. avatar jwm says:

          Citation, please.

      2. avatar Debbie W. says:

        Let’s play Big Brother’s legal Illegal game. Wear your sidearm open and you’re legal. Put a coat on and you are illegal. Take your coat off and presto you’re legal again. Put your coat back on and again you are illegal. The legal illegal game is as ridiculous as it sounds and it needs to be ended.

        1. avatar possum says:

          It’s just tricks to make stuff arrestie, another gunm grab. During the Clinton administration I was charged with concealed weapon because of the way I placed the unseen gunm on top of the car. Also during the Clinton administration I was pulled over and had to go to court after being searched and being found in procession of a loaded “assault rifle” ( SKS , 30rnd magazine, folding stock, attached bayonet)
          This time around it’s going to be worse. Keep your gunm clean, your powder dry, Freedom is going to spill blood.

    2. avatar binder says:

      Try Chicago…….

    3. avatar Renov8 says:

      This report is in question, especially from others who have demonstrated there is no direct correlation. Although I do believe a more armed society is bound to be more civil, I am not one to purport to know that for a fact.

      This article says there is no direct relation between the two.

      https://medium.com/handwaving-freakoutery/everybodys-lying-about-the-link-between-gun-ownership-and-homicide-1108ed400be5

      1. avatar Todd V King says:

        You and other need to work on your reading comprehension skills. You’re reading into it things that are not there. Nowhere that I can see did he say or even imply that there was correlation. He just said permits were up and crime was down.
        “It shows the murder rate has declined as the CCW rate increases.” “Concealed carry is up while violent crime down.”
        If I’m wrong please show me where.

  5. avatar James Campbell says:

    Prisoner surveys have shown criminals fear armed victims FAR more then armed LEOs.
    Ben Franklin said “An ARMED society, is a POLITE society”.
    Is any SANE person doubting this statement?
    Trump/Pence 2020 FTW….and FTTDS! 🤣

    1. avatar Rusty - Always Carry - Chains says:

      Ummm, not Ben Franklin! Your quote is from Robert A. Heinlein, I find his quotes to be far more instructive in modern life than what Mr. Franklin had to say.

      1. avatar James Campbell says:

        Thanks for the correction.
        It’s all a bit of a blur. I remember learning this in H.S., back when they ACTUALLY spoke of this stuff.
        Trump/Pence 2020. Warning; TDS Zone Ahead! 🤣

      2. avatar MADDMAXX says:

        than what Mr. Franklin had to say.

        And just WHAT is wrong with with “MORE WINE WENCH”?

    2. avatar Texican says:

      Robert A. Heinlein said in his book Beyond This Horizon, “An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.” Benjamin Franklin just wishes he had said it!

      1. avatar James Campbell says:

        👍

      2. avatar billy-bob says:

        Another good one:

        “You can have peace. Or you can have freedom. Don’t ever count on having both at once.”
        Robert A. Heinlein

        1. avatar James Campbell says:

          I recall one that said something like…. Those willing to sacrifice/trade some long fought for and hard earned Liberties, for some PERCEIVED short term securities, DESERVE NEITHER, and WILL LOSE BOTH!
          Trump/Pence 2020! Say it with me now TTAG troll farm…. Trump/Pence 2020!… Trump/Pence 2020!….Trump/Pence 2020!
          I can do this all day. It NEVER gets old.
          Trump/Pence 2020!
          Enjoy the TDS losers.

    3. avatar Wiregrass says:

      I thought it was Robert Heinlein that said that. I’ll start a new one, “Eventually all quotes are attributed to Ben Franklin.”

      1. avatar Mercury says:

        “Eventually all quotes are attributed to Ben Franklin.”

        –Benjamin Franklin

  6. avatar sound awake says:

    it would be interesting to see a breakout of just constitutional carry states
    theres enough of them now that have been around long enough to provide enough data

    1. avatar LarryinTX says:

      I remember back in the day having this argument with my (adult) brother. It was around 1994 or so, he was wondering about guns, rights, and so forth, thinking about where he could get some historical data, when I pointed out the best area at the time was FL, and he was raised and lived currently in FL. He did not understand what I was talking about, he knew NOTHING about FL passing “shall issue” in 1987, how everybody was watching FL to see what happened. He said it must not have been reported much, I replied I had watched the progress from start to finish while living in Okinawa, perhaps he should review his news sources. He got better.

  7. avatar Dude says:

    Notice the murder rate increase under Obama’s watch, otherwise known as the Ferguson Effect. How many of those victims were “black and brown?” Why weren’t the sports organizations promoting BLM back then? Because BLM promotion is purely political. The NBA has announced they will remove BLM messaging next season. In other words, it’s nothing more than election interference.

    1. avatar RGP says:

      The reason they’ll remove pro BLM messages and behavior is because pro sports ratings have crashed as a direct result of their politicization. The pro sports associations are the tail, and they can’t wag the dog any more. NFL viewership is down 70% and a 70% loss of their audience will not continue to pay million dollar salaries. With numbers dwindling like that, they can either adapt or they can go out of business.

      1. avatar Dude says:

        Never forget. Fk em. People have learned to live without sports. It’s hard to enjoy anything when they’re constantly preaching about how terrible you are because of the color of your skin or the way you vote. Thankfully, the only major sports organization that I’ve ever cared about happens to be the only one that didn’t go all in on left wing politics (UFC).

      2. avatar Dude says:

        “The reason they’ll remove pro BLM messages and behavior is because pro sports ratings have crashed as a direct result of their politicization.”

        So they’re willing to sacrifice Black Lives just so they can make more money?!?! How could ANYONE ever support that level of greed and violence? Apparently Black Lives DON’T Matter. 😉

    2. avatar James Campbell says:

      “Notice the murder rate increase under Obama’s watch”
      Yes. Broke O’bummer and his crooked Jim Crow rasist dimtard cronies did all they could to get guns into the hands of criminals, then gave those same armed criminals a justice system pathway back onto the street after committing horrible felonies. All in the name of running up the death toll numbers.
      Barry CLEARLY DID NOT think black lives matter, in fact, he grouped them with Border Patrol Agents.
      Remember, slow joe gets credit for the assist on this debacle.
      Trump/Pence 2020 FTW
      Remember, only racists morons vote slow joe/sticky hoe come November.

  8. avatar Green Mtn. Boy says:

    A armed society tends to be a polite society .

  9. avatar A O says:

    I am doubting this “study”. Violent crime is skyrocketing throughout the US major population cities, while gun purchases have never been at a higher rate for the past three years. Homicide rates for major cities have not decreased much, if at all depending on location, for the past two years. Looking at his chart, if it is accurate, his linear murder rate also appears to be a bit more steep than it should be.

    A more interesting study would be the breakdown of firearm purchases. Are current owners adding to their inventory or how many new carriers are really being added to the firearm industry? We see many bits of info saying gun sales are increasing but at what rate to new owners?

    1. avatar Gliderguy says:

      A. O., Media COVERAGE of violent crime in cities is SKYROCKETING, not the actual crime itself. Media tends to obfuscate the facts by over covering certain things and ignoring other counterpoints. Yes there are local hotspots like Chicago and Detroit, but even those aren’t enough to reverse the overall national decreasing trend. I don’t doubt that some real hellholes exist in this country, but that is a failure of local leadership and not an indictment of national policy.

      Think of it this way, If we could actually get results (or even a bit of stability) in the poor urban areas, then the overall crime rate for the whole country would be precipitously dropping. Politicians and pundits could then move on to other things and leave the 2A alone. I suspect this nice outcome would foil some long-range plans of certain individuals, such that they are doing everything they can to prevent it.

    2. avatar MADDMAXX says:

      Violent crime is skyrocketing throughout the US major population cities

      In some of those “major” cities you can’t get a concealed carry permit, and in others it’s almost impossible to even legally own a gun…. So what exactly was YOUR point

    3. avatar LarryinTX says:

      You are interested in a further breakdown of my firearm purchases? Fuck off and die. What I own, and what I purchase, is none of your business and I am not going to tell you. I live in Texas, and Texas is not going to ask me, and if they found out what you want to know, they would not tell you. Because it is none of your business and you have no right, and no reason, to know. Look up “infringement”.

      The “skyrocketing crime” in cities is rioting and looting by criminal thugs who are encouraged by Democrat mayors and governors telling police to stand down instead of “knock them down!”

    4. avatar Ing says:

      Looking at only the past three years is cherry picking.

      It doesn’t have much of anything to do with the fact that there’s a 22-year trend of an exponentially increasing number of people who carry guns while the violent crime rate decreased steadily.

      And while it’s difficult to prove gun ownership caused that decrease, it is absolutely obvious from the numbers that gun ownership doesn’t cause violent crime. Anyone who claims it does is either ignorant, idiotic, or lying. Or all three.

      Still, when the current year’s crime data works its way through the reporting system, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with gun ownership and crime rates in the areas hardest hit by the BurnLootMurder movement. (Any doubt that they’ll go up together?)

  10. avatar former water walker says:

    Amazingly enough even in ILLinoyed defensive gun use(especially with a ccl )is reported positively by lamestream media. The same asswholes who wailed about “river’s of blood” and blacks would be targets for white vigilantes! Folks are a whole lot more circumspect in nearby Indiana. Way more CC and open carry…

  11. avatar Gliderguy says:

    I like data like this, but the problem with both pro and anti gun arguments trying to jump from correlation to causation is usually neither accounts for socioeconomic status. I would say all the big cities that have high crime rates have a high corresponding percentage of the population below the poverty level, and growing up with nothing pisses some people off to the point they do anything they can to escape it, including illegal things. The gun grabbers will yell that all the new local regs they put in is responsible for the nationwide drop, except when you look at the specific locations they exist vs where the crimes exist, they are not doing anything statistically significant. The truth is both the per-capita gun crime and total abortions have been slowly trending down over the last 3 decades or so.
    Oh yeah, can the editor fix the lower graph so we can see the years too? If I did want to share from this source that really weakens the argument with it not there.

    1. avatar LarryinTX says:

      Socioeconomic status is not a player. Anyone who has spent any time at all in other countries can educate you that the poorest people in America are upper middle class in many other countries, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, many more, yet the rioting and looting, burning and assaults just don’t happen. That is a function of culture as well as learned concepts of entitlement, you are breathing therefore you have a RIGHT to all manner of free stuff. If you aren’t given everything you wish before you even ask, you must BURN IT ALL DOWN!!

    2. avatar Ralph says:

      Blaming crime on poverty is an insult to poor people.

      It’s not poverty that’s the determining factor. It’s culture.

  12. avatar jbob says:

    Don’t do what the anti-gunners do. Those numbers were already declining. Guns have no impact on homicide rates although they do lower other forms of violent crime. Neither side has an argument, guns are a mute point when discussing the homicide rate.

    1. avatar Wiregrass says:

      I agree that murder, like suicide, is influenced mostly by the emotional state of the perpetrator, and not so much by the risk associated with the act. However, some homicides are carried out incidental to other violence and property crimes and the increased perceived risk associated with those crimes due to firearms would have a somewhat decreased but still beneficial effect on homicides.

    2. avatar Ralph says:

      “guns are a mute point”

      I’m just going to guess that you meant “moot point.”

  13. avatar Shire-man says:

    Data be damned!
    I operate on feelings and emotion just like the rest of the “party of science” and my feelings and emotions tell me your data is RAAAACYYYSSSSSS!!!!!!!

  14. avatar NORDNEG says:

    Told ya,,, “””FREE KYLE”””

  15. avatar Imayeti says:

    El Paso, TX and Ciudad Juarez Mexico comprise the largest metroplex straddling an international border. Guns of any sort are banned completely in Mexico. El Paso Texas, it’s Texas. What do you think? One year I worked there, Juarez AVERAGED 8 murders per day. Same year, El Paso had 7 murders for the entire year! God bless(ed) Texas!

  16. avatar possum says:

    Data reveals muder reports decrease as more people carry shovels

    1. avatar Darkman says:

      No fewer dead criminal bodies are found.

      1. avatar possum says:

        Oh forgot about them, I was thinking spouses.,,,. True story. The girlfiend and I were in $Genral, cashier said “Can I help you?” I said “Movies” she said “the Halloween ones are over here and the others are down there” pointing. Me ” I like blood and violence.” , girlfiend says, “Yeah that’s why he wants to get married.”

  17. avatar Geoff says:

    South Carolina only updates once a year on Carry Permits.
    Active Permits as of January 1, 2019………..492,646
    So we’re definitely over 500,000 by now in a population of 5.2 million, but only 75% of those are over 21, so 3,900,000 or 12.8% with a carry permit.

Write a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

button to share on facebook
button to tweet
button to share via email