It is well known that there were significant spikes in homicides in 2020, particularly in major urban areas. In an article I published in 2021, I attributed these spikes to what I dubbed the “Minneapolis Effect”–specifically reductions in proactive policing as police pulled back in the wake of the George Floyd protests. I blogged about my article here.
A few days ago, an important new statistical study found corroboration for my hypothesis in New York City. Professor Dae-Young Kim’s article “Did De-Policing Contribute to the 2020 Homicide Spikes?” answers the question posed in the title in the affirmative.
Professor Kim’s article examines NYC homicide data from 2017 through 2020. It divides homicides into six different categories: gun, non-gun, domestic, non-domestic, gang, and non-gang. It assesses the connection between homicide rates in those categories and a significant reduction in NYPD police stops of pedestrians. In NYC, stops fell from 13,453 in 2019 to 8,375 in 2020–a 30% decrease in proactive policing.
Professor Kim’s article found that the reduction in stops led to an increase in three homicide categories:
… the interaction term of police stops and the pandemic presents the extent to which the 2020 homicide surges were attributable to reduced proactive law enforcement. Specifically, gun, non-domestic, and gang homicides significantly increased as police stops decreased in the pandemic and post-Floyd era. In addition, the supplementary correlation analyses present a significant correlation of police stops to gun (r=−.406, p =.008), non-domestic (r=-.321, p=.041), and gang (r=−.364, p=.019) homicides, respectively, in the pandemic and post-Floyd era. In contrast, the significant correlations disappear in the pre-intervention era. …
In the first of the eight charts above, the reader can see the dramatic reduction in police stops by NYPD following the George Floyd protests. In the remaining charts, the simultaneous significant increase in homicides in the gun, non-domestic, and gang categories (but non in non-gun, domestic, and non-gang categories) is visually evident.
The explanation Professor Kim gives for this pattern tracks the one that I gave in my paper on the “Minneapolis Effect”–specifically, that police stops are targetted (sic) at gun crimes and related gang activity, and thus a reduction in stops will produce the greatest increase in homicides in these specific categories. As Professor Kim puts it:
Pedestrian stops are used to stop and frisk anyone, but mostly known gang members, on the street they suspect might engage in criminal activity or carry concealed weapons. Given the goal of pedestrian stops, the effects of de-policing should be more pronounced on gun, non-domestic, and gang homicides that usually occur in public settings. The current findings echo Piza and Connealy’s (2022) study in that the lack of policing caused crime increases, ultimately compromising public safety and endangering communities.
— Paul Cassell in New Statistical Evidence Supports the “Minneapolis Effect” as an Explanation for Increases in Homicides
“stops fell from 13,453 in 2019 to 8,375 in 2020–a 30% decrease in proactive policing“
Yep, because of the Covid lockdown NYC saw a 30% decrease in police/civilian interactions.
No mystery there.
And yet there was only a .7% drop in overall crime in the same time frame….
https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/news/p0106a/overall-crime-new-york-city-reaches-record-low-2020
“And yet there was only a .7% drop in overall crime in the same time frame“
Yes, it’s no surprise that the criminal element ignored the Covid lockdown mandates and continued to ply their nefarious trade.
“Yes, it’s no surprise that the criminal element ignored the Covid lockdown mandates and continued to ply their nefarious trade.”
WHOA!
You have said that the reason for crime increase is that there are guns. But now its ’cause COVID?
Look here’s the fact that you evidently do not understand because you don’t know what ‘context’ means —- de-policing if by policy or even due to COVID results in a crime increase, period.
You have avoided using the term ‘de-policing’ for a reason, like all anti-gun you want to blame crime on everything except the criminal —- its guns, no wait, its COVID, no wait, its poverty, no wait, its racism, no wait, the criminals ignored the lock-down (even though in areas with high numbers of armed law abiding ordinary citizens and police stayed on duty and the areas were not de-policed and there was no total lock down like there was in blue state areas crime did not increase), no wait, its what ever excuses you guys can come up with to keep from blaming crime on the criminal.
To add:
you would rather die then admit that de-policing results in a crime increase, and that because you support de-policing by de-funding.
“You have said that the reason for crime increase is that there are guns. But now its ’cause COVID?“
Nope, I’ve made neither claim here.
You have before in other comments sections for other articles said that guns are the reason for crime.
You in this comment section said this in relation to the crime increase…
“Yes, it’s no surprise that the criminal element ignored the Covid lockdown mandates and continued to ply their nefarious trade.”
yes, you have claimed both. Quit lying.
The American funded and Communist Chinese created bio weapon known as COVID nineteen, did kill lots of people. But guess what else gets people killed???
Chinese Communist manufactured Glock switches.
Chinese fentanyl (as well as precursor chemicals for its production) and various other designer drugs and contaminated ingredients for basic products don’t help much either.
“said that guns are the reason for crime“
Nope, never said it.
Please quote for me where I stated that Covid was the cause for the crime increase.
As way of distraction you quote this statement I made:
“Yes, it’s no surprise that the criminal element ignored the Covid lockdown mandates and continued to ply their nefarious trade.”
I’m sorry to inform you that statement does not blame any crime increase on Covid, rather the pertinent point is:
“the criminal element ignored the Covid lockdown mandates“
Your reading comprehension skills seem somewhat compromised, I imagine English as a second language can be difficult.
And you folks continue to ignore the main reason police stops were down during the Covid lockdowns, people stayed off the streets so there was less police/citizen interaction, it’s as simple as that.
In other news, Benedict Donald received his 2nd target letter, how exciting for him to have been involved in a seditious conspiracy to overthrow the legitimate government of the United States of America.
goebbels, oops, I mean miner. What other regime has used the .gov to grind its opponents to dust?
We do need a Nuremberg 2.0.
MajorLiar,
(I may have to hand you a new nick, “MajorRetard” because your alleged “arguments” are so completely stupid.)
“I’m sorry to inform you that statement does not blame any crime increase on Covid, rather the pertinent point is:
“the criminal element ignored the Covid lockdown mandates“”
No. F**king. Shit. Sherlock. Criminals do no obey laws – kinda definitional, if you have the wits to pour p**s out of a boot, with the instructions on the heel (which you obviously DON’T have). All “gun control laws” can EVER accomplish is to . . . burden the law-abiding. But you’re all for that (oh, except if we’re talking about simple, PROVEN effective things like picture ID for voting).
Your pathetic, idiotic attempt to give yourself and your gun-control fellow travelers a reach-around is as stupid as are you – we have over 300 federal gun control laws, and north of 20,000 state and local gun control laws . . . and they have accomplished sweet f**k-all. Even the federal government itself could prove NO efficacy to the original “Assault Weapons Ban”.
Just be honest – your fascist @$$ just wants . . . control. You KNOW “reasonable gun control” laws will accomplish jack diddly s**t, but you want them because you fear my gun(s). No need to, MajorLiar/MajorRetard – as the man said, “Don’t start none, won’t be none.” I’ve owned my guns for over 40 years. I have carried one for over 20 years. I have never even pulled it, let alone shot someone, and I HOPE I never have to. But if I have to, I choose to be armed. I am intelligent enough to realize that I CAN’T stop criminals from acquiring firearms, so I choose to arm myself. You do you, and be disarmed if that’s what displaces your watercraft – I. DON’T. CARE. Do whatever the f**k makes your dick hard, but LEAVE ME THE F**K ALONE. Oh, and while you’re at it, osculate my anal sphincter.
and defunding police due to the Floyd overdose riots
and prosecutors letting violent criminals out with little or no bail. If your a cop why would you bother arresting someone when they will be out before you finish the paperwork?
“If your a cop why would you bother arresting someone when they will be out before you finish the paperwork?“
Maybe because it’s the job you signed up for and you’re being paid by the taxpayers…
How’s that working out in NY again?
SAFEupstate,
Oh, and how’s it working in San Francisco, LA, Chiraq, St. Louis, Atlanta, Detroit, etc.??? And what do all those cities (and most others with obscene crime rates) have in common???? Oh, yeah – they are all ruled exclusively (or nearly so) by Dimtard/Leftist/fascists. As a general statistical proposition, the BIGGEST indicator of a city with a high crime rate is . . . a Dimocrat/Leftist/fascist government. Hmmm. An intelligent person might even draw a conclusion from that, but there is no danger of MajorLiar ever reaching an intelligent conclusion.
Come on lamp no fun I wanted to see if he could do a better job of spinning that shit show than two governor’s and all the media.
Don’t forget to include their democrat enablers in that group!!
They needed a study for this obvious conclusion?
if you hated black people
you wouldnt treat them any differently
than the democrat party does:
1 kill them in the womb by the millions
2 destroy their families with the welfare state
3 make sure that the schools they attend dont teach them anything
4 allow them to run up the body count on each other in huge numbers by not enforcing the law in any way that could be described as effective
Yet the very people that seek to destroy them lead them…. Margret Sanger would be proud.
The reality is…Yesterday’s democRat Party slave masters used Blacks to pick cotton whereas Today’s democRat Party slave masters use Blacks to harvest votes. In other words the problem is the demoCrap stuck between the ears of fools.
“Today’s democRat Party slave masters use Blacks to harvest votes.”
Precisely, the Black population is still being used by democrats and for what ever reason too many can’t see the use or the abuse.
BLM and the “Defund” crowd prey on the weak minded, the uneducated, or over-educated morons. Perpetually offended and lazy minded people let corrupt or insane others think and lead them, always has been, always will be. The Spanish Inquisition, the KKK, Nazi Germany, the list goes on…
Gotta keep everyone in line on the new plantation.
“It is well known that there were significant spikes in homicides in 2020, particularly in major urban areas.”
“major urban areas” aka socialist-democrat’s governance zones.
“the “Defund” crowd prey on the weak minded, the uneducated”
Yes, I agree with your opinion.
“Rep Andy Biggs
@RepAndyBiggsAZ
Defund and dismantle the FBI.“
“Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸
@RepMTG
DEFUND THE FBI!“
“Perpetually offended and lazy minded people let corrupt or insane others think and lead them“
Yep, space lasers and Italian satellites, be afraid, be very afraid!
Bloated and useless federal agencies that focus more on oppressing political opponents than going after gangs, mafia, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and foreign espionage/invasion. As opposed to street cops that actually have to deal with gangs and much of the above………..sure is an apples to apples comparison there miner.
Apples to Apples? Then it’s kkk, nazi, kgb tactics…Oh but that’s History and History doesn’t matter…especially to a Gun Control History illiterate barking sack of sht.
Sir this is a Wendy’s
“Sir this is a Wendy’s“
No, this is an online firearms focused forum, TTAG.
If you think this is Wendy’s, you really should speak with your mental health caregiver about adjusting your medication.
“No, this is an online firearms focused forum, TTAG.”
And yet, Liar69er, you rarely discuss gun topics — rather you bring your leftist politics and blinding hatred for your opponents to jump off from firearms and gun law into unrelated babblings.
Debbie and Miner rarely seem to quarrel despite supposedly being on opposite ends of a presumed viewpoint…… interesting.
MajorRetard,
For YOU, of all people, to even mention seeking mental help is *chef’s kiss*. You are a babbling moron, have never had an original thought in your pathetic life, and couldn’t follow a chain of logic if it were laid out in a straight line. Tell us again, MajorRetard, how Article I, section 8 expressly authorizes universal gun control . . . I could use a good laugh, today. F**king incompetent quarterwit, go back to your hole (or your mom’s basement, more likely).
I went to the local FBI office with clear evidence of overcharging the government and they declined to investigate. Too much paper work and not a big enough amount to get major headlines with a perp walk. On the other hand an FBI agent was extremely proud about how they investigated some guy with more time than sense. He was milling down pennies to dime size to use in the San Diego ferry. I think it took them ten years to track him down. Big Whoop! That spent all that time tracing the days he used the pennies and the times they thought the pennies were put into the turnstile and looking at work schedules of the companies that were at the destination end of the ferry they managed to nab their man. What a dangerous felon they took off the streets. It was at that point that the FBI joined female milk glands on boar hog as useless items in the universe for me.
@Miner49er Nobody here is proposing “DEFUND THE FBI” (or BATFE, BLM, DOJ, IRS etc) but we support firing everyone in those agencies who ignores the U.S. Constitution. Big difference.
We support American agenda, not a right or left.
“Defund and dismantle the FBI”
was in reference to the move to de-weaponize federal law enforcement because Biden weaponized it against the American people and the number of criminal offenses (excused by qualified immunity) by federal law enforcement against the American people went up more than 300%.
is not the same as the city police forces being talked about here in the article. Learn what context means Miner49er
You are proof that the Follywood writer strike is ineffective. You are a master of stupid is as stupid votes.
“It is well known that there were significant spikes in homicides in 2020, particularly in major urban areas.”
“major urban areas” aka $ocia list-democrat’s governance zones.
So now Minor Irritant, you’re going to infer that the FBI is working the city streets, keeping the gang bangers in check? Well then, by all means we should double their budget… oh wait, you’re just applying your twisted logic again, sorry.
“So now Minor Irritant, you’re going to infer that the FBI is working the city streets, keeping the gang bangers in check?“
Yep, that’s exactly what is happening.
“The Albuquerque FBI Violent Gang Task Force executed 16 federal search warrants in various locations in Albuquerque and at Bernalillo County’s Metropolitan Detention Center on September 1, 2022, as part of an ongoing RICO/VICAR investigation targeting violent street and prison gangs.
More than a dozen federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies, including SWAT teams from the Albuquerque, Denver, and El Paso FBI field offices, participated in what could be the largest ever fentanyl takedown in New Mexico.“
And as I point out above, your Republican politicians want to defund the FBI so the gangs can continue their warfare on American streets… smooth move, bowels.
While conceptually, I can make the link in causality between police stops and various crime, there is a bit of wordplay in the article. A correlation between +-0.30 and +-0.50 is considered at moderate correlation. +-0.50 and above is considered strong. The moderate correlation value for all these crime categories indicate additional “other” unstated or unknown factors are also linked to the increase in crime (such as more people being out of work during the Covid pandemic?). The p value needs to be less than 0.05 in order to have statistical significance of correlation. All of the crime variants do in this study so that is a valid claim.
For any statement of causality – Yes, you do need a valid statistical study with enough data points to provide you with proof indicators. Otherwise, it’s your word against the other guy without any proof. With this study, it does provide indicators that police stops do have a negative effects on crime – at least in this geographical area studied. And the study provides part of an evidence package that can be used to fund (the labor time for) MORE police and/or police officers hours to perform these stops.
Meanwhile in ILLANNOY the ILL Supreme Court has ruled it’s cool to eliminate cash bail. The SAME azzwholes who cheered the Dims gun ban. BLM raised a cheer🙄
Even for violent repeat offenders, no less. All the Supremer Court ruled is that they legally can, no that they should. The ILL Legislature is the body in charge of creating law and goodness knows what genius(es)-in-charge decided it was a novel idea to make no cash bail to somehow level the economic level playing field??? The bail should fit the crime AND the economic circumstances of the individual charged IF they could be considered not a flight risk OR the accused is a very low risk for repeat offenses. Makes me sick to read of all the victims that continue to add up from these offenders that are out on no-cash bail.
George Floyd was a useless drugged out petty criminal with a rap sheet as long as Joe Biden’s lies. To pay ten cents worth of pity on this POS just astounds me.
Duty of the police is to protect and serve the public, including those you might consider unworthy. It is not their duty to conduct executions in public.
The police did not publicly execute George Floyd. He died of a drug overdose. It is unfortunate that he died when the police were around.
A dead drug addict is just like a tree falling in the forest. And nobody being around to notice.
George Floyd died. Because he was a drug addict. And the drug legaliz@tion crowd likes to use the deaths of drug addicts, as a weapon against the police.
When they simply die of their drug overdose,
when the police have them in custody.
The drug leg@liz@tion crowd are liars. They don’t believe in liberty.
Because they don’t believe that drug addicts who die of an overdose, should be held responsible for their own actions.
If they can find a cop around to blame the death on they will.
So Geoge Floyd was force fed fentanyl? Is this something police officers now carry?
What is telling is the cities with the most alleged cases of police using unwarranted deadly force or allegedly have a racist police dept. are also cities that have been under Dementiacrat control for decades.
For some unknown reason cities dealing with increasing crimes against minorities and the cities in the worst throws of despair and decline are also the most progressive and liberal/leftist.
The number of people who die in police custody is go up. Some people are saying. But they will avoid saying those that died with the police around, were mostly a drug overdose death.
The people who hate cops. Need the cops around to blame their problems on. Because they don’t believe in personal responsibility and the consequences for the actions that they took.
Before we parse or critique the linked article and study, let’s acknowledge two very simple and hugely important facts which are absolutely indisputable:
— There are nasty/evil people walking among us in our society.
— Nasty/evil people victimize us unless someone stops them.
Those two simple facts make it absolutely crystal clear that any choice or policy which reduces society’s actions to stop nasty/evil people will promptly result in those nasty/evil people victimizing society more often and/or with greater brutality. That is indisputable.
Now the only question that we have to answer is whether or not reduced policing/prosecution of attackers reduces society’s actions to stop nasty/evil people. I believe that the answer to that question is an obvious and resounding, “YES!!!”
So, the lesson/truth here is simple:
Reduce policing/prosecution if you want to increase how much nasty/evil people victimize society.
— OR —
Increase policing/prosecution if you want to decrease how much nasty/evil people victimize society.
This isn’t rocket science people.
And, according to multiple articles citing police statements across the country, the most of the local police KNOW who the 3% of the nasty/evil population are that perpetrate the majority of crimes in their community. In many cases, they are hobbled by inane bail laws and other revolving door “justice” laws or policies that put these nasty/evils right back onto the streets again after their arrest. Way to demoralize your police force…
MrMax,
Your comment is absolutely spot-on. Well said fine sir.
The libertarians Liberals and the left all agreed on defunding the police.
They also agree that law abiding citizen, Should not be allowed to start killing criminals, when they are caught stealing, robbing, raping, breaking into or vanitizing private property.
They hate the police, and they also hate the private law-abiding armed citizen. They are all utopians. Stalin was a utopian. Pole Pot was a utopian. Adolf Hitler was a utopian.
When the mobs come for your private property, they will simply tell you that is why you have insurance.
What they want is a s0cially aware and politically motivated s0cial justice police. They want a police to fully controlled by them and completely loyal to them.
Yep. That is their end goal. The police are not loyal to Anifia. Not loyal to BLM. At least not yet.
To them I say “power comes from the barrel of a gun”….. allow me to demonstrate
A free and well-armed population does not need police nor do they need to be “policed.” Only subjects and serfs need policing by their masters. The Founders did not have nor did they need any police forces.
They had already experienced generations of “policing” from the Redcoats and were convinced that a well-regulated militia made up of the citizenry was what they really needed to defend the security of our free state and that a standing army of government goons was exactly NOT what was needed for their new Republic.
You are correct. We never needed a police force. Because we had morals, based in a Christian religious belief system. That practically everyone accepted and lived by.
Unfortunately, that is mostly gone now. Because the atheists don’t believe you need to have religious based morals.
But there are suddenly a lot of atheists, who are publicly saying, they would rather live in a Christian society, instead of an atheist one.
And they seem to prefer a Christian society versus living in a Muslim society. Because they don’t say they would like to live in a Muslim society.
Only children need to be motivated by some theoretical and eventual “punishment” by some make-believe magical sky-daddy in a mythical after-life. Free adults are capable of self-regulation without a an authoritarian psuedo-parental system of rewards and punishments
Religion is a mental disease -yours seems to have simply blinded you of your own logical disability.
I find it so amusing when an atheist starts quoting the “military industrial complex” speech from President Eisenhower and his final address to the nation.
He said in that speech that “the enemies of the United States were atheistic in their nature.”
That’s true because atheists don’t support the first amendment to the bill of rights.
You can tell that they have never watched that speech from the beginning to the end. They just cherry pick what they wanted to hear.
Whether or not you believe in God is between you and God. I don’t really care. And yes, as a Christian I know. I’m supposed to care.
But I do care about the secular issue, of supporting the bill of rights.
And atheists do not support the bill of rights. They cherry pick it. Just like they cherry pick President Eisenhower’s speech.
Looking at, instead of along, same as miner does, skews your perspective.
Nice quote from Stalin.
History does not support that viewpoint.
Human Rights exist with or without the Bill of Rights. They existed before they were ever written and will continue to exist well after the Republic has fallen and has been long-forgotten. The Constitution is merely a means to an end. That end is desirable with or without the constitution and also is not the only means to that same end. The value of the Constitution and its Bill of Rights is only commensurate to how well it serves to achieve that goal.
They may exist but without a constitution and a fairly massive military to support them are they relevant?
Founding father, John Adams said “our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is holy inadequate to the government of any other.”
And the atheists have four decades been desperately attempting to prove otherwise.
Morality and virtue are the foundation of our republic and necessary for a society to be free
Oh, yes, the government has been under the control of atheists for decades, with barely a Christian to be found in any branch of federal government.
When your only tool is religion, every problem looks like apostasy.
Try that in a small town…
Thankfully for all involved their handlers do not want to escalate that far yet.
BREAKING: APPEAL LAUNCHED against unconstitutional, but judge claimed “Constitutional” ruling from Gun Control Judge… Oregon Measure 114.
Took one day to file appeal, that’s pretty fast.
it’s a shame you have to have a study to verify what is common sense to most of us and that we have known for a long time.
If you add in all branches of law enforcement no other organization has killed more people then law enforcement.
Ghengis Khan, Hitler and others of great renown enforced their laws too , so all the badge organizations of the modern world need quit patting themselves on the back about killing citizens because enforcement of ages past have exceeded their murdering capacity at this time in history.
Hopefully that will change with Our most benevolent and illustrious President Joseph Robinett Biden the greatest president America has or ever will have.
What I would like to see is more power given to the BATFE, so that bureau could expedite the killing of innocents and advance burning down more houses full of wemon and children and shooting the survivors as they run from the flames.
BLM are amateurs.
I disagree with your article, I am a black gun owner and a member of NRA . I find your article offensive by insinuating that all black people are in favor of defunding the police. Any person with common sense knows that any society needs laws and order. Every profession has bad apples and Law enforcement is no different . Please stop promoting false narratives. Thank you
Wayne,
I don’t think ANYONE on this forum believes that all black people want to defund the police. In fact, most black people I know want MORE policing in their neighborhoods. The only people who want to defund the police are “social justice warriors”, and MOST of them are . . . rich whipipo. I don’t blame social stupidity on black folks; I blame it on brain-dead idiots like MajorLiar and dacian the demented. I have no idea, but I would be willing to bet big money that NEITHER of those retards are black.
AFAIAC, you, and any other black person who values individual rights, is more than welcome here. I may, or may not, agree with your point of view on any particular issue, but . . . it won’t have one damn thing to do with what “color” you are (I don’t know, anyway). Welcome, fellow gun owner – what guns do you like, and why? Next time you have some spare cash, what gun will you buy? THOSE are things I care about. Sorry if the article rubbed you the wrong way, but I don’t think anyone here feels that way.
Something I noticed seeing video of the so called BLM riots. Damn few of those involved were actually black. A few marching up front were the usual suspects/race baiters/grifters. And a hand full of blacks thinking they have some sort of grievance. Sorry but those folks should look up and listen to or better yet, read the books of Thomas Sowell. Might get a bit of an education.
The majority of those actually rioting, burning, and looting, were the same element that exists in any city. Opportunistic predators and street thugs looking for an excuse.
Now, I will say I am in favor of defunding a couple federal agencies. Several in fact need to be abolished, or consolidated with other agencies because they have long since become weaponized against the current regimes political enemies, or the citizens in general.
Or because of overlap and redundant duties between agencies/depts. bureaus. There should be 1 federal police agency. 1 investigatory agency, with the rest back as the basic regulatory or tax collection duties they started with.
Next would be the various intel agencies. At most we need 3. Not the 15 or so we have now.
Fact is, we could dismantle fully half of the federal government and the country would function just fine and the spending on un-needed crap could be stopped cold.
HUMANS , PEOPLE , ANI’T WE SOMETHING ,
WAY TO REALLY SCREW IT UP , YEP WE CAN DO IT ..
O GO SUCK ON EXHAUST PIPE , FIX IT ALL ..
WHATEVER ..
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