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I flew into Hartford yesterday, and spent all day today at King33, planning out exactly how we’ll get all the data we’re after. And rest assured, I think we’ve got it all covered. Back when I was doing formal terrorism risk analysis for DHS, the one thing we constantly lusted after was real world data about interdiction rates and probability of defender successes. And all we had to work from were after action reports (which, for the most part, were about failures in the system). Tomorrow we’ll be able to put real people in real scenarios and see how they react. I can’t wait to see the results. And if you can’t wait either, I get the feeling that we might be live streaming from one of the cameras in the shoot house. Stay tuned.

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  1. Streaming live!! woot woot!!
    I am sure you all will have plenty of work between now and then.
    My hope is that the data retrieved will be done in such a way that it can be presented easily to others. My other hope is as Nick certainly knows, this data needs to be able to stand up to scurtiny. Sure there will always be someone who can find fault, but we need to get the facts out!
    At the base level it needs to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that either a CCW holder can stave off death and destruction or not. I like you am looking for answers. There are lots of people who say oh heck no to CCW in schools. There are others like in Utah, and Texas who say heck yes. To that end what about gun free zones in general?? If we can say that one or more CCW can stop carnage, and make a difference, then it really starts to question beyond just schools doesn’t it?
    I don’t know if this type of simulation can be applied other situations, but it certainly will provide answers to some nagging questions.

  2. Just remember to keep it unbiased and fair no matter what. As much as I know what I want the data to show, don’t let that influence the study.

  3. Good luck with your finding, gents! It’s admirable you are doing this, and I am sure you have made every effort to produce unbiased results.

  4. Good Luck guys!!! Watch your backs!! Get some great real world data and let’s prove the antis wrong once and for all!!
    Be Safe!!!

  5. I’ve had the opportunity to do some force-on-force training using Simunitions.

    While such training has immense value, bear in mind that it’s still not indicative of the real world. The biggest problem I’ve observed is that since it’s a training scenario, you already know [i]something[/i] is going to happen, and tend to be keyed up before things even get started. Your defenders will have the knowledge that they’re about to be attacked, and your attackers know that there is going to be armed resistance.

    You try your best to act realistically, but there’s only so much you can do. People tend to be much quicker to go to guns then they normally would be, because they’re expecting something to go wrong. You throw in the occasional scenario where the role player playing the “bad guy” doesn’t present a threat to try and present a more realistic scenario, but obviously you’re there to test your skills so you know that someone is going to present a threat eventually.


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