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Chicago homicide (courtesy

“Allowing citizens without criminal records or histories of significant mental illness to carry concealed handguns deters violent crimes,” John Lott’s Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns concludes. Common sense also suggests a link – if only because shooting a perp reduces his or her chances of reoffending. But that’s still a far cry from suggesting that the prospect of concealed carry reduces violent crime. Citing Chicago’s falling firearms-related homicide rate, Second Amendment Foundation Prez Alan Gottleib goes there. “Surveys have repeatedly revealed that predatory criminals fear armed citizens. Just the thought that an intended victim might be armed, and willing to fight back, tends to discourage some of these outlaws.” [Full press release after the jump.] Hey, if the antis can promote gun control as pre-crime, gun rights guys can promote concealed carry as pre-crime prevention. It doesn’t make any sense, but logic rarely intrudes on the gun control debate. Just sayin’ . . .


For Immediate Release

BELLEVUE, WA – Last year saw the City of Chicago reportedly post the fewest homicides since 1965, and the Second Amendment Foundation says one plausible explanation for at least part of the decline is because criminals can no longer be certain that their intended victim is not legally armed.

Since SAF’s landmark Supreme Court victory in the 2010 McDonald v. City of Chicago case that nullified the 30-year-old handgun ban in the city, increasing numbers of law-abiding citizens have obtained firearms for personal protection, noted SAF Executive Vice President Alan Gottlieb.

“For three decades,” he said, “street thugs essentially enjoyed a risk-free environment in the Windy City. That changed, thanks to a series of court victories stemming from SAF’s win in the McDonald case. That forced the city to enter the 21st Century and rejoin the United States where the right to keep and bear arms is protected by the Second Amendment.

“Surveys have repeatedly revealed that predatory criminals fear armed citizens,” he added. “Just the thought that an intended victim might be armed, and willing to fight back, tends to discourage some of these outlaws.”

ABC News reported that the city saw a 16-percent reduction in crime overall last year. There were 415 homicides, which was 88 fewer slayings than the city logged in 2012.

“Improved police work is certainly a factor, and no doubt a number of slayings involved people with criminal backgrounds, themselves, who are no longer victimizing the community,” Gottlieb observed. “However, it cannot be discounted that with the restoration of gun rights in the city, there is a deterrent factor that did not exist for many years under the virtual ban on private handgun ownership within the city limits.

“One thing about criminal predators is that they don’t want to risk getting shot by an intended victim,” he concluded. “Now, with legal concealed carry coming to Illinois thanks to SAF’s victory in Moore v. Madigan, this sends an even stronger message to criminals that it may be time to change their lifestyle.”

The Second Amendment Foundation ( is the nation’s oldest and largest tax-exempt education, research, publishing and legal action group focusing on the Constitutional right and heritage to privately own and possess firearms. Founded in 1974, The Foundation has grown to more than 650,000 members and supporters and conducts many programs designed to better inform the public about the consequences of gun control. In addition to the landmark McDonald v. ChicagoSupreme Court Case, SAF has previously funded successful firearms-related suits against the cities of Los Angeles; New Haven, CT; New Orleans; Chicago and San Francisco on behalf of American gun owners, a lawsuit against the cities suing gun makers and numerous amicus briefs holding the Second Amendment as an individual right.


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  1. I’d have to disagree, because most of the homicides in Chicago are thug against thug, and no matter what the CCW laws are the gangs will play gangsters.

    Another note-I never did this myself, but one of my relatives was an old timer who came up before the IL FOID act passed back in the 60’s. Being an old school black man growing up during the Civil Rights Era, he carried -and presumably still does- a S&W .38 revolver, UUW law be damned.

    Far as I know he never had to use it, but lets just say that the FOID act didn’t disarm as many good guys as the limousine liberals think .

  2. Thanks for posting this Robert. When I read this story from SAF I had to scratch my head and say “huh?”. Big props to the SAF for what they do, but this was a reach to say the least.

  3. What needs to be stressed in these stories is how increased firearms ownership did NOT lead to increased firearms deaths.
    The Antis always proclaim that any loosening of restrictions will lead to blood in the streets and they are always proven wrong.

  4. It’s okay to “poke the bear” every once in a while with the same type of bias crap the other side tries to feed us, just as long as we remember the actual fact-based and rights-driven arguments when push comes to shove.

  5. The Chicago homicide rate has been trending downward since 1992. In ’92, the City of Windbags had 943 murders. In 2013, the number was 415. I attribute this to a number of factors:

    1. In Chicago where the dead vote, it’s hard to kill the same scumbag twice.
    2. After a bloody summer, it got cold and the jagoffs decided that staying indoors was the better part of not freezing.
    3, Once the bad guys left the streets, the cops were imbued with the courage to leave their precinct fortresses and do some actual police work.

    While Tiny Dancer and his personal sock puppet Garry McCarthy are probably sucking each other’s winkies in celebration, New York City with a population of 8.3 million had about 75 fewer murders than Chicago, which has a pop of 2.75 million.

    • I think weather played the largest role in the reduction of murders. Winter was at least normal if not long last year and really cold weather started early in Autumn as well. That keeps people inside where it is warm … including violent criminals who don’t kill as many people if they are holed up inside.

    • Homicide rate everywhere has been trending down, with a few exceptions. It’s a general trend in all developed countries.

  6. The MSM is trying to soften the inevitable news next year that guns reduced Chicago-land’s crime rate.

    It will be a clarion call: Freedom works. Thus must that clear outcome be muddied as much as possible.

    • “The MSM is trying to soften the inevitable news next year that guns reduced Chicago-land’s crime rate.”

      I will rejoice if this EVER happens. But I think it’s unlikely given the “normal” news cycle. Can you imagine the evening news muppet ever leading with “Nothing bad happened today”?

  7. Yeah, this is just wishful thinking. For starters, no one is actually (legally) carrying yet, because no permits have been issued. Secondly, I doubt very many of the murderous gangster crowd follow the news to this degree. Obviously anyone committing homicides could give a crap about the law and probably doesn’t keep real close track of what’s legal or not.
    If you check out Second City Cop (blog) or, you’ll also notice that 2012 was an aberration in the otherwise downward trend of homicides in Chicago. Meaning, that drop from ’12 to ’13 only looks impressive because ’12 was more violent than 2011.

  8. Hmmm. I see no reason to discredit SAFs presser based on what I’ve read here. I think a primer on logic and some practical examples would be a great resource for TTAG readers along with the tacts to reference so we can refer back to the in conversations with antis as that calm rational approach seems to befuddle them fastest and avoid the personal attacks they resort to in favor of emotion.

  9. I say why not go ahead and credit guns with every good thing that happens from now on? Cancer gets cured? Armed citizens. World hunger ends? Standard capacity magazines. It’s no less ridiculous than what they’ve done to us for decades.

  10. For example: statisticians say that correlation does not equal causation. And you need a large enough sample size to have useful results. I believe the Lott survey and recent Harvard and CDC studies have all come to same general conclusion: that increased private citizen legal gun ownership correlates to lower crime against citizens. And that is an inconvient truth the State Run Media™ ‘strangely’ seems to avoid.

    If I have that correct then

  11. Well, I’d have to rate this self-congratulatory presser as mostly not true. Technically, permits to carry have not been issued yet. Most murders are in drug infested poor areas and 80% of the victims themselves have records. Plus, homicide has been trending down for quite a while.

    In Chicago, I would expect carry to have an impact on other violent crime – robberies and such, not homicide per se.

    On the other hand, I doubt the thugs understand the legal nuances so probably there has been some deterrent factor.

    • I read that, too, on; but let’s not celebrate too much about this particular chief’s view. After all, it took his moving to Maine as police chief, after 28 years on the LAPD, before he changed his view on concealed carry. And even in Maine, it took some time and peer pressure to change his mind; after realizing he was the only chief with a stack of rejected concealed carry applications on his desk.

      So that means for some three decades, as a “law enforcement professional” and all its gravitas, this chump was going around disparaging and denying citizens their right to keep and bear arms. Too little, too late. He’s hardly an enlightened civil servant. The proof?

      Even after all being proven wrong and supposedly realizing it about concealed carry after all those many years in the police state business, he *still*… *this* day………does not believe in civilian ownership of so-called “assault weapons” (read: semi-automatic rifles). He says they should be banned. He’s also called for tight restrictions for online ammunition sales, to regulate “high-capacity magazines” (read: standard capacity magazines), and for background checks for gun sales (read: ban on private sales of firearms).

      How many three decade cycles will it take before this fraud finally realizes that “shall not be infringed” means “shall not be infringed”? This guy would be a couple of centuries old before he finally stops infringing.

  12. One thing I am curious about with the argument that legalized concealed carry reduces homicides though is, do criminals really pay any attention to the gun laws? I mean you’re not going to tell me that if you go into the ghettos of Chicago and walk up to random punks, that they know what the gun laws in the city are?

    • Even thugs have watch the news occasionally. And while they aren’t likely to follow the nuances of law, the word will spread when homies keep getting shot trying to mug yuppies on the Mag Mile.

  13. Thank God for SAF,someone one has the gonads to put these illegal laws in the toilet where they belong.Illinois also won open carry as well and SAF have a right to claim that this has and will reduce gun crime,just look at Florida a few years ago when then enacted conceal carry— crime went down by almost 50% within Months of permits being issued.Crooks got so desperate they started going after tourists,by following rental cars.
    So don’t you think for a second conceal carry won’t reduce crime,hide and watch it happen as more and more law abiding citizens start to carry and practice with their handguns .You’ll be hearing about it from the NRA’s. “Armed Citizens” stories.
    All these idiot police commissioners and officers who have NEVER been through a CCW class are ignorant to what citizens learn.They are over 21 and are NOT going to go out and shoot each other .They will know the laws and limitations of CCW. Thanks to SAF!
    I listened to some of these Chicago Liberals on TV saying how you are supposed to carry” mug money” and give in to the subway thugs.Sorry but my way of thinking is ” plug the Thug” Maybe the rest of the scum will start getting the picture.But that’s just me!

  14. “Hey, if the antis can promote gun control as pre-crime, gun rights guys can promote concealed carry as pre-crime prevention. It doesn’t make any sense, but logic rarely intrudes on the gun control debate.”

    Fair enough.

  15. Hey Robert, the word is usually spelled homicide not homocide unless of course the misspelling is intentional and the threat of guns is effecting certain intimate lifestyle behavior patterns in Chicago.


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