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free & quality, i am in.
People who think China will stay out of the war are incredible naive.
China has EXPLICITLY said they WILL NOT allow regime change in North Korea.
China knows that if NK and SK re-unify via an invasion of the North, the US will be there planting missile bases on their borders. That is NOT going to be allowed to happen. China see what the US is doing to Russia in eastern Europe and they will not allow it to happen to them.
North Korea is NOT going to unilaterally attack the US OR Japan OR South Korea UNTIL and ONLY UNTIL the US attacks it first. Which is the real threat there. Trump’s US elites and elements of South Korea’s elites want a piece of the 6-10 TRILLION dollars in natural resources that North Korea has undeveloped due to the poor economy and sanctions. MONEY, as usual, is the real driver here.
Despite all the nonsense about Kim being “irrational” he has done nothing but demonstrate his rationality. Even the CIA admits this. The ONLY thing he is wrong about is his assumption that having nukes is a deterrent to a US attack.
Well, it’s not. People make the assumption that nukes are a deterrent based on the experience of Iraq and Libya. People forget that Iraq was attacked by Israel for merely having a reactor (and Syria was attacked in the last few years just for MAYBE having a reactor plan), and that long AFTER Iraq had disarmed itself, it was attacked for messing with the OPEC oil price, i.e, MONEY. And Libya was attacked long AFTER it abandoned its nuclear program, again over OIL MONEY.
Nukes are NOT a deterrent unless two things are true: 1) you have enough of them, and 2) you can deliver them accurately to your enemy. Neither applies to North Korea and would not have applied to Iraq or Libya nor would they apply to Iran if Iran had any intention of making nukes which they don’t because unlike Kim they understand they have no “use case” for them.
What happened with Iraq is that it was attacked under the EXCUSE that it was trying to get nuclear weapons when the real reason was MONEY. The same applies to North Korea.
As for the North’s conventional military, that and the fact that they have not seriously attempted to attack South Korea for sixty-four years is what has kept the US from attacking them. Nukes have nothing to do with it, despite what Kim might think. Pentagon war games show the US suffering fifty thousand casualties in the first ninety days of a war with NK and a potential 250,000 casualties if the war continues for some time – which it will.
It is quite possible that the US/SK could LOSE a war with North Korea. This is even without China entering the war. And even if the US/SK won the conventional war, what about the inevitable insurgency that could be organized by NK’s 100,000-plus Special Forces that would make the Iraq insurgency look like a tea party.
If China were to enter the war, they wouldn’t even have to attack US/SK troops. They could pour five hundred thousand troops into northern North Korea, set up a defensive line and tell the US/SK “You go no further.” Neither China nor the US will go to WWIII over North Korea. Unlike North Korea’s minimal number of nukes that have not established they can hit the US, China has 200 nukes that CAN hit continental United States.
North Korea has also explicitly said that IF – and ONLY IF – the US stops making threats against it will they consider putting their nuclear program up for negotiation. It is a fact that they have TWICE before agreed to do so and at one point DID shutter their nuclear program to the point of blowing up their cooling towers. It was the US that reneged on the deal that had been made.
Kim’s acceleration of his nuclear and missile programs are both attempts to achieve a deterrent – which will fail – and attempts to pressure the US into negotiating. What he doesn’t realize is the US has no interest in negotiating.
The parameters of a negotiated settlement have been known to anyone familiar with the history of the NK/US conflict. The US must negotiate a mutual non-aggression pact which is legally binding under US and international law that neither side will attack the other unless they are unilaterally attacked or an ally is attacked. In addition, NK must stop nuclear weapons development and rejoin the Non-Proliferation Treaty and subject itself to IAEA inspection. In return, the US will supply fuel and two light water reactors as per the Clinton Agreed Framework from the 1990’s.
The only problem preventing this is the US unwillingness to negotiate directly with NK, foisting it off on China and Russia and other countries. The other problem is that the US cannot be trusted to adhere to its agreements, as is proven by Trump’s efforts to tear up the Iran Deal, which virtually the entire world except for Trump knows is working fine.
Trump can bluster all he wants but within another year he is either going to have to blink and negotiate with NK, or Kim will continue to improve his nukes and his missiles regardless of Trump’s threats until a war starts.
My prediction is: There will be a second Korean War – and the US and SK will lose it either as a result of Chinese intervention or an insurgency.
A U.K. man used a shotgun to take hostages in a bowling alley in Warwickshire. Police ended it a couple hours ago. Gun violence in the U.K.? Is there no sanity left in the world?