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Gun Sales, Stocks Falling

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“January gun sales slumped in comparison to past years, according to new data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System,” bloomberg.com reports, with the usual qualifiers . . .

The government doesn’t keep an exact count of firearms sold, but the system can be used as a proxy for sales and is considered an indicator for the industry.

According to data kept by the agency, 2,030,530 firearm background checks were logged this January, down from 2,043,184 in the same month last year and 2,545,802 in 2016, which was a record year.

Bottom line: January’s adjusted firearms sales numbers are the lowest since 2012.

As you’d expect with those numbers, with the U.S. stock market in something not unlike freefall, the stocks of publicly traded gun companies are tumbling.

Bloomberg offers S&W’s and an investment bank’s explanation for the firearm industry’s doldrums.

“There is no fear-based buying right now,” said James Debney, chief executive officer of gunmaker American Outdoor Brands Corp. (formerly Smith & Wesson), on a conference call in December.

In a report about American Outdoor Brands released Monday by Wedbush Securities Inc., a securities firm and investment bank, analysts cited firearms-purchasing trends among risks to their price target and rating: “Gun ownership is becoming increasingly concentrated, with fewer gun owners owning more guns, as guns are primarily marketed to people who already own guns.”

While some analysts reject the “satiated super-owners” theory of falling firearm sales, I have to agree that the industry’s short and long term health depends on breaking out of the pro-2A, anti-government, Waco Was a Warning OFWG ghetto, converting casual and non-gun owners.

TTAG will be doing its part for that soon. Watch this space . . .

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Robert Farago

Robert Farago is the former publisher of The Truth About Guns (TTAG). He started the site to explore the ethics, morality, business, politics, culture, technology, practice, strategy, dangers and fun of guns.

0 thoughts on “Gun Sales, Stocks Falling”

  1. I’d like to take a whole new spin on this approach.

    We need to stop viewing guns, gun control, machine guns, military style weapons, etc…. as independent issues. There’s a reason the 2nd amendment is short and sweet.

    Its not the job of the police, or military, or emergency departments or social services to be in control and take care of your problems.

    Time for a reality check, this is YOUR country.

    Soldiers, police, firefighters, nurses, social workers…. these aren’t programmed robots designed for a simple task. These are AMERICANS, your neighbors, friends, family, kids…..

    WE THE PEOPLE! PERIOD!

    Until the rest of the human race eliminates all evil in the hearts of all men, you will always need to protect yourself and those around you by the best means possible.

    I am so sick of hearing this bull crap “We don’t need guns because I live in a safe neighborhood and nothing bad happens here….”

    Nothing bad happens to you because you let everyone else be the bad guy and do the dirty work.

    Fight or die.

    As they say, an Anti-Gun person is just someone who hasn’t been attacked yet.

    Reply
  2. The challenge for Aussies is they have never fought for their freedom, or the freedom of their country. Dont give me they seceded from England. No civil wars, no war of independence, nothing. The Aussies are sheep now and their sheep may be better men than they are.

    Reply
  3. Basically we see a continued, steady trend upwards over the years (a good thing!). The two January spikes in 2013 & 2016 I believe were caused by the fear of gun grabbing actions due to a: fallout from Sandy Hook & b: the threat of her highness HRC being elected (shudder).

    Calling January 2018’s figures a slump is nothing more than fake news sensationalism.

    Reply
  4. It’s called normalizing. This is where gun sales are supposed to be instead of the roller coaster ride it’s been since Sandy Hook. If you want to succeed in this market your prices have got to be reasonable and your product has to be an improvement to the status quo, just like all other manufactured products.

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  5. “Gun ownership is becoming increasingly concentrated, with fewer gun owners owning more guns, as guns are primarily marketed to people who already own guns.”
    That’s alotta bull.

    Market saturation is can be a good thing as well, if everyone has guns, then manufactures actually have to innovate do things better than the competition, not just produce any ole thing because it’ll sell anyway because of scarcity. I think the next few years are going to produce some pretty awesome things.

    It can also help to stimulate new purchasers, by having so many guns in the market, it will encourage dealers to lower prices to move inventory, lower barrier to entry would likely result in a net gain to the 2A community. More shooters buying more guns.

    Well, that’s my theory anyway.

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  6. A few States compel gun-owners to apply for and be issued a “FOID” (Firearm-Owner’s ID). I believe IL publishes data on applicants and outstanding cards. NJ requires FOIDs but I have not heard of their publishing data. NY requires a permit for pistols but not long-guns.

    We ought to identify which States have some form of FOID system (to be distinguished from a special CWP to “carry”). Then, we pester these States to regularly publish (at least annually, preferably quarterly or monthly) data on outstanding valid permits.

    Our pestering – as public as we can make it – will go either of two ways.

    States with FOID systems will PUBLISH the data and the chips will fall where they may. Outstanding FOIDs will be shown to: decline/hold-steady/rise.

    Some States will REFUSE to publish. Why not? What are they afraid of? Don’t they tabulate the data? If knowledge of who owns guns is so VERY important to public safety, why do these States not bother to maintain a database that would enable it to publish data? Shouldn’t they be able to show details of changes in outstanding FOIDs by county?

    Now, the kicker: Could it be that these States are engaged in a conspiracy with gun-controllers to further a myth that gun-ownership is declining? Would any State consider adopting a new FOID system carry-out such a plan in the face of pressure to publish figures? What if those figures showed an INCREASE in ownership? Would they want to PUBLISH that their residents are increasingly turning to gun-ownership?

    What do FOID-States have to hide? As long as there are FOID-States hiding data they serve to undermine the claims that gun-ownership is falling nationwide. As long as there are a few FOID-States PUBLISHING data, they supply – limited – data that will show whether the claims of gun-controllers are true/false.

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  7. So its a M&P Compact 2.0, but in 380, and single stack, and with a hammer. What now? Why, why not just a locked breach 380 shield instead of blowback, both of those would make for a lighter recoil spring. The wings are nice on the HK VP9, that wouldn’t be bad on the regular Shield actually. These can’t be any cheaper to manufacture.

    I’m not a target customer, so I guess the fact that I don’t get doesn’t matter. Maybe my wife, I guess, I’ll buy her one because its a new gun and I need it for…reasons and stuff.

    Reply

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