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The comprehensive study reveals that nearly seven percent of shootings can be attributed to above-average daily temperatures, even after adjusting for seasonal patterns. The findings indicate that the Northeast and Midwest regions experience the sharpest increases in gun violence on hotter-than-normal days.

“Our study provides strong evidence that daily temperature plays a meaningful role in gun violence fluctuations,” says study senior author Dr. Jonathan Jay, assistant professor of community health sciences at BUSPH, director of BUSPH’s Research on Innovations for Safety and Equity (RISE) Lab, and a partnering faculty member of Boston University’s Center for Climate and Health (BU CCH). “Even though some regions showed larger or smaller effects, the general pattern is remarkably consistent across cities.” …

For the study, Dr. Jay, Dr. Lyons, and colleagues utilized publicly available data from the Gun Violence Archive, a national repository of gun violence information. The team analyzed daily temperatures and more than 116,000 shootings from 2015 to 2020, in the top 100 US cities with the highest number of assault-related shootings in the country.

Accounting for seasonality and regional climate differences, they found that 7,973 shootings were attributable to above-average temperatures. The temperatures associated with increased gun violence varied considerably across cities. For example, both Seattle and Las Vegas experienced the highest elevated risk of gun violence during days when the temperature soared within the 96th percentile range of average daily temperatures—but for Seattle, that temperature was 84 degrees, while in Las Vegas, it was 104 degrees.

“Cities with high rates of firearm violence should continue to implement firearm-prevention strategies broadly including credible messenger programs and hospital-based violence intervention programs,” Dr. Lyons says. “What our study suggests is that for cities with more heat-attributable shootings, implementing heat adaptation strategies at the community level—such as greening efforts that have been effective at reducing urban heat islands and have some association with reductions in firearm violence—may be particularly important.”

So what might be driving this association between heat and gun violence? “It could be that heat causes stress, which makes people more likely to use aggression,” Dr. Jay says. “Or it could be that people are more likely to get out on warmer days and have more interactions, which creates more opportunities for conflict and violence. Most likely, it’s a combination of both.”

— Boston University in Warm Days are Contributing to Gun Violence Surge Across the US, Says Study of 100 Cities

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    • to begin with their data source, the “Gun Violence Archive”, is compromised. it uses that reported in the media which is more than frequently and commonly incorrect, it uses other anti-gun sources that use incorrect or limited data, and the number of victims claimed in reality do not exist because, as anti- gun puts it, “the bodies don’t exist because they were completely vaporized by a single bullet so that even DNA nor clothing exists” not to forget some of those “victims” they claim were puzzled as to how they could be the victim of a shooting hundreds of miles away from them.

    • “It could be that…”

      in other words he knows this is not ‘scientific’ at all and his study is worthless because he’s guessing.

      • ^ BINGO !!

        “In other research we find that being an idiot and having opportunity to communicate freely eliminates all doubts as to the idiocy of the communicator.”

      • Agreed. I remember this from (one of) my Basic Statistics classes. Same as the link between ice cream sales and violence. Now we’re just saying that those warmer days are increasing…therefore there MUST be an increase in violence (as opposed to strictly ‘gun’ violence, right). And absolutely NO LINK to the ‘Summer of Love’ BS that swept the big cities. Because Racism.

        • Ah, statistics. I recall reading once that over 50% of people killed in traffic accidents had eaten carrots within the last 24 hours. The conclusion would then follow that avoiding carrots would increase your safety on the road.

        • If Global Warming-Cooling-Climate Change continues at this pace it will lead to throwing virgins into volcanos to please the Climate Change gods.

    • Correlation does not prove causality. That doesn’t mean a statistically significant correlation should be ignored. The author’s implication, that people get short tempered when it’s hot out, seems reasonable. Someone with a perpetual chip on their shoulder starts out closer to the snapping point. There are ways to lower urban temperatures (e.g. less concrete and more grass and shade trees) but they need money and community support to implement.

      • Exactly my take. He isn’t positing causation, only correlation, and suggests some possible causes. The causative factors may be shorter tempers, and more people in the street when it is hot outside, perhaps, as the OP states.
        This correlation has long been known in Chicago; as the temperatures rise, so do the number of shootings. Long hot weekends with a full moon are the worst.

        • He is positing causation, he even says it with “Our study provides strong evidence that daily temperature plays a meaningful role in gun violence fluctuations,” < that is a causation statement, a 'meaningful role' with 'strong evidence'.

          So, I'll say this from my scientist aspect as I am actually a scientist (physics) and write study's and reports; Anytime you see the word 'evidence' combined with an action statement effect ('meaningful role') in a scientific study it is a 'causation statement'.

      • More money and more government is the answer? Politicians would love you. That’s always the answer, no matter the question.

  1. So, that means, if I have a grudge against someone, I should wait for the hottest day of the year, then go gun him down? I can blame it on global warming, and that’s just like a ‘get out of jail free’ card.

  2. lol

    I have no doubt that the planet might be warming. There is nothing the human race can do about it though. Humans will destroy themselves long before destroying the planet.

    Zero carbon efforts means ending life. Even then, there will still be carbon.

    • One thought here I’ve never seen out forward: It has always been fact there the Earth itself has been cooling since it’s creation or forming. Scientists seem to agree that at one time, much of this rock was a molten sphere incapable of sustaining life. Perhaps a somewhat warming of the surrounding atmosphere is necessary to balance this cooling effect.

      • Our planet was at one time completely covered in a thick sheet of ice. Earth’s molten core is certainly a factor in what happens on the surface but there are other things going on. The Sun (our star) is the primary driver. Just as the moon has an effect on things. We have ‘seasons’ in the first place has a result of the relationship between the Earth, the Moon, the Sun, and Earths’ tilted axis. Our planet cools as we get further from the sun and hotter as we move closer. The orbit we take around the sun is not a perfect circle with the it in the exact center. We are in constant motion. Our star will be what destroys this planet if we don’t get hit by another asteroid of suficient size. But that wont happen for billions of years.

        There is NOTHING in this entire universe that exists without violence. The sun itself is a nuclear fusion reactor physically bigger than anything else within a light year. Earth is not just rotating within it’s orbit. It’s moving through space faster than any bullet has ever traveled. It is believed that we are on our 6th lap around the Milky Way.

        We have life on Earth in the first place because of the carbon that is here (among other things). Life here is carbon based. THAT is what ‘organic’ actually means. It does not mean no hormones or pesticides.

        Personally, I am convinced that in order to grow to our next phase of existence, we will need to get beyond fosil fuels. But we do still need it to get there to start with. Taking that away from us will not only halt human advancement but will revert the human race by hundreds of years. Technology will advance but we are not there yet. We will never get there with the lunacy of the Democrat left in control.

        • Fission until we get fusion running? Or something like an Asimov array to collect massive solar energy?

        • They claim to have accomplished “fusion” when on December 5, U.S. scientists at the National Ignition Facility in California generated more energy from a nuclear fusion reaction than they put in… They used 80 billion thousand million gigawatts of electricity to produce 80 billion thousand million .01 gigawatts of usable energy…

  3. I’ve often heard the sentiment that someone is so smart that they have no common sense. It certainly seems to apply in this case.
    I wonder how much they were paid for this “study”? I’ve always wondered if the term “grant” is interchangeable with “graft”


    Climate change, aka “global warming”, causes “gun violence”.

    Just how “normal violence” is affected by rising temperatures isn’t mentioned.

    More at 11:00.

  5. Nothing new here; it’s long been understood that crime increases in the Summer months because fools and hoodlums are out and about during such times which increases interactions and the odds of violent confrontations. Way before “climate change” was a thing.

  6. From the same people who for decades insisted violence spikes during heat waves were fictional superstition and purely anecdotal.

    Correlations are spurious until proven useful then they magically morph into fact.

  7. There is actually something to this. Not global warming. I think that’s bullshit. When I was working everyone hated a hot summer night. Especially around the first of the month or a holiday. We knew we were going to be busy. A cold winter night was the opposite. Except for domestics. Everyone is hemmed up inside with family they don’t like.

    • everyone hated a hot summer night. Especially around the first of the month or a holiday.

      All that and a full moon= mayhem…

  8. There has long been a link between crime and temperature. Few people like standing out on street corners in freezing temperatures or pouring rain. That includes criminals. That also means that if people aren’t around, potential victims aren’t either. What’s considered a nice day varies by climate and season, and there would be an inverse correlation in places like Phoenix where people stay in their air-conditioned homes when the temperatures are blazing. Using GVA’s bogus stats as a basis for the data amplifies it even more since you need a gathering of people to have multiple victims.

    • hhhmmm
      Kinda like how people will wait for days in the rain and other outdoor elements in line for concert tickets or the latest iPhone?

        • ok

          I’ve seen young people being kept from their smart phones. They go completely nuts. Sometimes you could swear they were on meth.

      • Prndll, the connection between a teen having a smart phone taken away while grounded and a violent felon avoiding poor weather escapes me. Criminals are notoriously lazy and slack anything that me be unpleasant. Notice they avoid potentially armed victims.

        • 🙂
          That’s because that was more of a joke. Sorry, I’ll try to be more serious next time.

          Excess heat might help to raise stress levels but that’s subjective. Right now stress is high across the board. It wouldn’t take much for some people but everyone has their own tolerances.

    • “See, I told you so. We must ban all guns except single shot muzzle loaders and shotguns for hunters. No one has a right to possess a semiautomatic spewer of death.” Justin Trudeau.

    • It was 40 degrees in Orlando, 32 in DC last night (at start of the Giants-Red-er-Commanders game), wonder how “WARM” it was in Toronto…

    • It’s 12° south of Chiraq right now. There’s murder n mayhem year ’round. Yeah there’s more in the simmer er summer. But they wanna disarm me & other law abiding folks because they hate us. Kinda simple dumbazzes…

  9. Nothing in that article mentions global warming at all. Love TTAG, but the title is misleading. The article simply reinforces studies that have been done in the past stating that violent crime in general increases with the temperature.

    Again, love this site, but this isn’t up to your typical quality.

  10. Sounds like an article supporting so called “global warming”. Another reason to go out and buy one of those 80 thousand dollar lectro cars……. Wow, now blaming “global warming” for gun violence. Insane.

    • If you reread the article it doesn’t actually mention global warming a all. Not to beat up on the guys at TTAG, but the title is very misleading. The study being discussed simply supports the idea that crime increases with temp. We studied that in my Criminology classes 25 years ago. This isn’t anything new or progressive.

      • It doesn’t need to specifically cite “global warming” the underlying implication is quite clear warmer weather= more shooting, more, warmer weather= even more shooting, cooler weather= less shooting and more, cooler weather= even less shooting… Since climate change is the NEW “global warming” it is because of CLIMATE CHANGE that temperatures are rising creating MORE above average temperature periods and thus adding more opportunity for would be shooters to take advantage of… Therefore “climate change”= global warming= more warm days= more violence/shootings… Do the math and read between the lines the authors intent is quite clear… The most interesting “fact” in this article is that only about 8000 of the 116000 shootings studied (less than 7%) were attributed to above average temperatures yet they felt it significant enough to take note and PUBLISH a paper?

      • From the full article:
        As climate change threatens to raise daily temperatures even more, the researchers say these findings underscore the need for ongoing policies and programs that acclimate communities to heat and mitigate the risk of heat-attributable gun violence.

        • There’s a part two to my above comment that’s awaiting moderation. I don’t have time to play around with the goofy moderation system here. Maybe it will show up eventually.


        • Also, in case you were wondering if you should take this guy seriously about anything:
          study senior author Dr. Jonathan Jay, assistant professor of community health sciences at BUSPH, director of BUSPH’s Research on Innovations for Safety and Equity (RISE) Lab, and a partnering faculty member of Boston University’s Center for Climate and Health (BU CCH).

          He’s a so_shall_list pushing climate alarmism to get more funding for him, and more tax payer money for the cities in question. The answer is always money and government. Always. They’re robbing us blind and the sheep are begging for more.


  11. The study not only makes sense it is also “common sense” something the Far Right have little of.

    The morons of the Far Right are still screaming that Global Warming is false because in actuality it cuts into their rape of the environment for profit and blind greed.

    In my own experience working in Industry decades ago the amount of violence went up dramatically during the hot summer days as opposed to violence in the winter time.

    Anyone who would claim that tempers do not grow short when working in extreme heat lives in his own alternate universe.

    • As usual, wasted space, wasted time and MORE moronic ignorance on display… A 7% increase is far from a monumental increase in violence and some of the temps noted are just barely above average (Vegas average summer temp is 102.7 while they use 104 as their “above average” number while the average for August is 105) They site 84 as the trigger point in Seattle? 84 is a warm Spring day on most of the planet but in Seattle it means the sun is shining and it’s NOT raining so there are more opportunities for violence… Are you Brandons speech writer? The last paragraph says it all… “So, what might be driving this association between heat and gun violence? “It could be that heat causes stress, which makes people more likely to use aggression,” Dr. Jay says. “Or it could be that people are more likely to get out on warmer days and have more interactions, which creates more opportunities for conflict and violence. Most likely, it’s a combination of both.”

    • “The morons of the Far Right are still screaming that Global Warming is false because in actuality it cuts into their rape of the environment for profit and blind greed.”

      Somehow the mining of lithium with child slave labor is so much better for the environment. Since it occurs in Democratic Republics in Africa it must be ok?

  12. The weather does affect crime, it’s plain and simple. I was questioning Jussie’s story when he said some “MAGA Country” guys beat him up. First off, Chicago is hardly “MAGA Country.” Second off, and far more relevant in this case is that it was like negative one thousand degrees out.

    If you look at sites like they have “rain delays” in their weekend trackers and gave credit to Skilling (a local Chicago weather man) for the drops in some months. The common sense truth is people don’t want to go out and hang on a street corner when it’s cold AF out or do other stupid things.

    That out of the way you may be able to contribute a small percentage of these homicides to the weather or “global warming” as he would put it. What’s really missing here is a more holistic analysis that talks about the five hundred other things as well. Things like emptying the jails, non-prosecution of people, shutting down schools (I’ll place a bet on it being discovered CPS e-learning has had its attendance books cooked) and therefore teenagers aren’t on the hook for being somewhere etc.

  13. The DemonRAT’s think tank is getting very creative. Their best mind(less) members had to have thought this up, wrote the narrative and sent it to Boston Univ. where Dr. Jonathan Jay picked it up and presented it word for word.


  14. There it is, it’s Trumps fault, he killed the Paris climate scam and now everyone is running around killing each other on warm sunny days…

  15. So some mental moron paid another mental moron to publish their study? Is there a Journal publication for mental morons I haven’t heard of before? Granted there are the usual Democrat propaganda machines, but this sounds even more stupid than normal.

  16. I guess by using his logic, instead of banning guns, we just ban people from going outside on hot days so we stop other murders with knives, fists, etc too.

  17. No no no… It’s the other way around: All those firearms discharging is *causing* the increased temperatures, *causing* “global warming”…

    Which is why everyone (except goverments) must be disarmed!

    • “…firearms discharging is *causing* the increased temperatures…”

      Finally, a hypothesis I can get behind. I know that a couple of my irons really put out a heat wave that I can feel on my face. I suggest that we head to the range and test it. Maybe repeatedly, just to confirm the results eh?

      My wife says, any excuse to go shooting…

  18. Interesting contribution to the discussion of how to approach gunshot mortality and morbidity.

    I don’t think it’s worthwhile pursuing climate control to the end of gunshot violence.

    Nevertheless, if there is a correlation between raw temperature or relative temperature and gun violence then that serves to spark inquiry into the causal relationship that might create the correlation.

    There seems to be very little interest in the debate as to the root cause of violent behavior. Why might this be? Does no one really care if violent people kill others (provided, of course, that those they kill are never men-of-means)?

    What is it that causes a disproportionate number of individuals to violence in one demographic compared to others?

    I very much doubt it has anything to do with skin pigmentation.
    I’m inclined to speculate that the cause is incurred sometime between cradle and kindergarten. If I were correct on this point I don’t see the casual relationship running from some artifact (e.g., bullet, powder, primer, etc.) to violence. It’s more likely the immediate environment prevailing in the child’s home. Is there something in this environment which is imperfect? What might it be? Is it amenable to mitigation? (E.g., we got lead paint out of homes. Could we remove some other toxic “element”?)

    Or, is a more cost-effective solution to construct public recreational facilities such as air-conditioned basketball courts?


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