Previous Post
Next Post



The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2015 National Crime Victimization Survey is out. It’s based on interviews with 95,760 households and 163,880 persons. Here are two important takeaways:

1. “Firearm violence” declined from 1993 to 2015 

“From 1993 to 2015, the rate of nonfatal firearm violence declined from 7.3 to 1.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older (figure 2). The majority of the decline in firearm violence occurred between 1994 and 1999. The rate then fluctuated between 1.1 and 2.7 per 1,000 through 2015. An estimated 284,910 nonfatal firearm victimizations occurred in 2015 (appendix table 4). In 2015, 76% of all serious violent crimes that involved a firearm were reported to police.”

2. Serious violent crime declined from 2014 to 2015

“The rate of serious violent crime involving weapons had a decline (90% confidence level) from 2014 (4.9 per 1,000) to 2015 (3.6 per 1,000). During the same period, the number of serious violent victimizations committed by a stranger decreased (90% confidence level).”

Over these same timeframes, American gun ownership rose to new heights. That said, correlation doesn’t equal causation. While John Lott may beg to differ, we can’t say for a fact that increased gun ownership caused the decline in “firearm violence.” It may have been a factor, but how much of a factor is open to debate.

But it’s safe to say that the lack of an increase in firearm violence and serious crime during a time of increased firearms ownership indicates that more guns doesn’t mean more [violent] crime. So there is that.

Previous Post
Next Post


  1. Interesting the overall violent crime rate continues to drop while in inner major cities (Chicago, Baltimore, etc.) it has spiked…

    • Yep, and if Trump can do something about criminal illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, and criminal gangs in the inner cities the violent crime problem will continue to drop.

        • Yes. I tell people it isn’t a “War on Drugs”, it’s a government subsidy of violent crime. Estimates for how much violent crime would drop if the subsidy were ended range from 65% to 85%, and most land around 80%.

          Given how many young people are in the victim category of this “war”, the “Do it for the children!” people should be lining up to slash the casualty rate by ending it.

      • “if Trump can do something about . . . criminal gangs in the inner cities”

        I don’t want him to do anything about gangs in the inner cities. I want the gangs to kill each other and resolve the problem organically.

        • Oh, but it would be much faster if trained agents infiltrated selected gangs (preferring local ones with no national ties) and raised the slaughter level to where joining a gang was akin to playing Russian Roulette with a four-round cylinder.

    • The guys who wrote the “Freakanomics” books have cited several times that when abortion rates went up in the inner cites, crime rates went down.

      • I can’t find the reference, but actually Robert Heinlein sort of predicted that when he suggested that any measures which restrained or reduced population density in cities would reduce violent crime. It also follows from some mammal studies, where high population densities resulted in severely increased violence, and more so when there wasn’t quite enough to eat. Inner cities may not show up on the Discovery Channel, but we’re still mammals!

  2. That’s interesting, because there was a theory that a large part of the homicide drop was due to better medical care, specifically trauma care, and that violence was still a huge problem. But apparently it has dropped significantly, despite the evidence for at least a partial drop due to medical advances?

    huh. Need to get more data points obviously.

    • Spot on!
      Emergency medicine survival rates have been on a steep increase since the early 90’s. QuickClot, Israeli tourniquets, AEDs, etc all hit the market in the mid 90’s.
      Another HUGE factor that helped is that addicts went from illegal drugs to abusing prescriptions. As prescription medication gets harder to get, expect crime to come back as addicts go for illegal stuff again

      • “Emergency medicine survival rates have been on a steep increase since the early 90’s” Inside the US? As someone who has been an emergency medicine provider since that time, I’ve see no increased survival rates from traumatic injuries due to medical intervention over the last 20 years. Due to vehicle safety, yes. On the battlefield, yes. But here in US and due to medical intervention, no. If you have any statistics to back up that claim, I would appreciate them.

        • I don’t have a WSJ subscription, so I’ll link the (bleh!) Thinkprogress piece that cites the WSJ, which you can read if you have a subscription. Or, you know, visit a starbucks, connect to the wifi, and get complimentary access.

          And university of massachusetts:

          Honestly, google+homicide+rate drop+medical advances will pull a bunch more sources.

          I actually would LOVE an article fisking the studies, or explaining this discrepancy.

          I love your work JWT, and am honored you replied to me!

        • Marco, thanks for taking the time to post that. The University of Massachusetts study is particularly easy to deal with. This study deals from 1966 to 1999. That date, 1966 is particularly important. It is the mid and late sixties when the ambulance system was codified and standardized in the United States. It was the medics and doctors in Vietnam who brought back the emergency response system and translated that to the civilian world. That dramatically improved patient outcomes. So they are literally studying the effect from no formalised and standardized system to the modern system that we have today, or at least, 30 years later. Even so, that is largely outside of the time of The BJs study.
          The Think Progress study has two major flaws. First they are also citing access to medical treatment, specifically traumatic medical treatment, not any improved intervention. The other problem with the study is also listed in the study itself. That is, even though they report that there are more murders over that time they failed in the initial report to note the population increase. Their update at the end of the study clarifies that the injury rate actually has gone down along the lines of treatment.
          It is important to note that the National Crime victimization survey shows that not only has murder gone down but all violent crime, and serious violent crime, have gone down. These include attempts at murder, attempts at assault, attempts at rape. So great medical intervention might have altered a murder, taking it to an attempted murder. But less attempted murder, is just less attempts. No medical intervention necessary.

    • After reading the NCVS, I was not able to find any significant evidence presented by the BJS that a reasonable person would find “not favorable” as to the right to keep and bear arms. If you have reviewed it and come up with a different conclusion, please present it.

  3. 30,000-40,000 deaths by firearm a year is just a price too high.

    Now compare the number of gun murders in the US to the numbers of the EU, Canada, Australia and Japan (Which I’m head off to tomorrow) and you’ll find out that more guns does not equal less crime.

    These countries don’t see mass shootings or killing on a daily basis.

    These countries don’t have psychotic doomsday militia nuts or racist supremacy groups running amok claiming that the next leader of the free-world is the “antichrist” or whatever left-behind/turner diaries nonsense you people believe.

    Prove to me that “DGU”s actually exist (Here’s a hint, They don’t)

    Your 58% more like to kill a loved one or yourself with a gun in the home than stopping a criminal attack.

    And please tell me how are criminals getting illegally guns then?; All illegal guns started off as legal?

    Where is the accountability you people refuse to have when one of your own weapons fall into the wrong hands.

    Most people in the world don’t even want a gun to defend themselves.

    Suggesting a gun for self defense in the rest of the world would have you laughed out.

    • 2/3 of firearms deaths are from suicides. Most of the people who cite suicides as gun violence support physician assisted suicide. Why is ok to ask someone to kill you and not ok for someone to take it upon themselves to end their lIves with a gun. If you call suicide by gun gun violence than isn’t suicide by doctor medical violence?

      • A very sensible analysis, tdinva. In an endless stream of internally inconsistent narratives the left wants other people to have total freedom to do exactly what the left tells them to do, and do it the way they prescribe.

    • “And please tell me how are criminals getting illegally guns then?; All illegal guns started off as legal?”

      You see, there is a group of people collectively known as *criminals*, and they steal (breaking the law) from the law-abiding…

    • “Prove to me that “DGU”s actually exist ”
      Even the most cursory review of the TTAG website shows multiple examples of Defensive Gun Uses, often several a week. The CDC even stated that tens of thousands of DGUs occur annually. If that doesn’t convince you, or the nightly news, or the thousands of interviews by would be victims in news stories on the internet, then you are right, nothing can convince you. You are delusional.

    • Venting the election anger on this web site I see. I feel sorry for you.

      Have fun in Japan, you may want to stay.

      I want you to stay.

    • “Prove to me that “DGU”s actually exist (Here’s a hint, They don’t)”

      I take it you are unable to read, so how would we get that information to you? Making a statement that stupid demonstrates you are nothing but a troll who likes to run off at the mouth about pure nonsense, why would I fool with your silliness?

      Go down to your local police department and assault the first officer you see, attempting to take his wallet and his cuffs. You will be introduced to a DGU in a way you won’t forget. Moron.

    • 1) You don’t know squat about Japan if you don’t think are are no murders by gun. I have said this before, it is often difficult for a Japanese detective to clear a murder, when a gun is involved they often ascribe it to suicide. (McCaghy, et al, 1996)

      2) Pools and medical malpractice kill exponentially more people (CDC 2014) what will you to about that.

      3) DGU’s don’t exist? What world of Unicorns and Fairy Dust do you live in.

    • The prettiest sight in the world are the streaming tears of leftist knobs.

      AmericansAgainstProGunTyrants, I can never thank you enough for what you are doing and feeling. Your pain lights up my life.

    • There has been a gun in my home since the day my mother brought me from the hospital. Going on 66 years. So far, no one has been shot. How do you account for such a phenomena? What am I missing? Could it possibly have anything to do with the fact that no one in the family was violent?

    • Have fun in Japan, a racist, bigoted society that hates anyone not Japanese.

      Oh you didn’t know that did you?

      Yea, you libtards who love to hold up Japan as a model don’t even realize how racist they are to you stupid “gaijin”. Yea they will put on a smile, act polite, and love your money but deep down couldn’t care less about you. You know how many Syrian refugees they took in?


      I guess because they are not “white” they get a pass. It is the most racially pure, ethnically clean country on the planet which is why its crime rate is so low. Everyone there is the same just like Europe as well!! Funny I thought you all were about “diversity”? I guess when it comes to Japan they can be as racist as they want cause they are not “white” so it’s okay!!

      So have fun being the stupid “gaijin” as they laugh and mock you behind your back.

    • When you go to Japan don’t bother to take your passport. You only really need it to get back in the USA. What with Trump and all the racist, misogynist, gun nuts you would probably have to stay in your safe space all the time.

  4. “But it’s safe to say that … increased firearms ownership indicates that more guns doesn’t mean more [violent] crime.”

    Never underestimate the depths of gun-control depravity. I witnessed a gun-control advocate claim that our 23 year decline in violent crime would have declined even farther/faster if our nation had passed sweeping gun-control laws 23 years ago.

    That’s right. They acknowledged that firearm ownership has been steadily increasing for 23 years AND violent crime has been steadily decreasing for 23 years … and still had the audacity to claim that violent crime would be even lower today had we reduced firearm ownership during that time.

    If this does not prove that facts and figures are irrelevant to Progressives, I don’t know what will. This is why our arguments should be rooted in much simpler ideals.

    • I agree. Simple arguments. All that math and facts make their heads hurt and bring up their defenses. Instead, use their own language against them.

      How about: “Making it harder to legally purchase firearms is racist and misogynist! Why do you hate women and minorities?”

      Or: “Taking guns from the law abiding? That’s a pro-rape micro-aggression against all women. Why are you pro-rape? That’s just so offensive.”


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here