TTAG’s fortunate to have someone like LKB who’s an experienced litigator and keeps a close eye on Second Amendment case progress. He sent the following update on two cases that could go before the Supreme Court.
Both the Guedes v. ATF (bump stock ban) and Worman v. Healey (Massachusetts assault weapon and large mag ban) cases were on the court’s conference agenda last week. They were not, however, on the list of “cert denied” cases on Monday’s orders from that conference.
Over 95% of the cases presented were denied and none were granted review.
My read is that the Court is continuing to hold all cases where there is a serious Second Amendment issue, either because . . .
1) They know they will reach the merits in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association (in which case all such cases will be remanded for consideration under the new opinion) or . . .
2) Because they are planning on granting cert on another Second Amendment case if they don’t reach the merits in NYSR&PA (in which case they’ll hold the other cases until that case is decided, for the same reason).
While that’s at least mildly positive (before Kennedy retired, these kinds of cases were just “cert denied”), right now there’s no telling what the tea leaves are showing on this.
Absent some very unusual procedural maneuvering, however, it’s now too late to add any additional cases to be decided this term. That means if they don’t reach the merits in NYSR&PA and grant cert on another case, it won’t be argued until Fall 2020 and decided until after the election.