Florida’s Parkland Red Flag Law: Two Years Later and Homicides and Suicides are Both Up

red flag evro gvro confiscation colorado

Bigstock

Some time back, I took a look at the results of Florida’s “red flag” law. It was passed in the rush to DO SOMETHING, less than one month after the February, 2018 shooting at Parkland High School.

The law allows no-due-process confiscations of firearms because a person might be a danger to self or others sometime, maybe, in the future, we think. I first looked at the law in 2019, and there was little data, but what there was seemed to indicate that homicides and suicides had actually increased post-passage. That was despite the confiscation law being used an average of five times a day.

Two years after the law’s passage, it has been used more than 3,500 times. That’s a lot of would-be homicides and suicides prevented, right?

Generally, when I see the victim disarmament advocacy industry or the mainstream media — but I repeat myself — touting the alleged success of red flag laws, their “metric” is always…Look how many guns we took away!

I think a better measure is how many bad things — murders or suicides — were prevented from occurring. After all, that is how they justified rationalized passing these laws in the first place.

Well, we now have another year of data, so let’s take another look at Florida.

2016 2017 Law 2018 2019
Homicides 5.4/1000 5.0/1000 Signed 5.2/1000 5.2/1000
Suicides 14.1/1000 14.1/1000 3/9/18 15.3/1000 14.5/1000

 

In the two years prior to passage of the red flag law, homicides were declining and the suicide rate was steady. After passage, both rates went up, and remain above pre-law rates. To be fair, you can’t say the rates went up because of the passage of the law, but way to go, Florida. Floridians are now at the mercy of vindictive exes and other with grudges and the law’s proponents can’t even claim it improved anything.

It sure would be nice if courts would start applying strict scrutiny to laws like this, where a key test of whether a rights violation should be allowed is…Does it even even work? But with “President-Elect Harris” about to take the throne, I think we can surrender the dream constitutional niceties.

comments

  1. avatar LarryinTX says:

    Nice. I suspect a whole lot of anti-gun claims would fare much the same if anyone actually looked, which is why they don’t.

    1. avatar Geoff "I'm getting too old for this shit" PR says:

      When the policy results refuse to match their predictions, they ignore the hard data…

      1. avatar Victor Connolly says:

        Frankly, it seems that ‘progressives’ ignore the ‘hard data’ whenever it runs contrary to their narrative or agenda, period.

    2. avatar Craig in IA says:

      I’m surprised the majority of the FL homicides aren’t used as Covid victim deaths…

    3. avatar Brooke King says:

      The homicide and suicide rates in the article are astoundingly high. They are listed as per 1,000 residents. They are actually per 100,000 residents. Someone should fix the article.

  2. avatar Specialist38 says:

    Remember to thank Skeletor for this ….. and stripping some liberty from younger adults in Florida.

    We need to replace him with a Conservative when we can……

    The “we have to do something” crowd is always to blame for bullshit statutes.

    1. avatar GluteusMaximus says:

      I held my nose and voted for him. I agree. Let’s get him out.

      1. avatar Specialist38 says:

        I did not vote for him. We already had anti-liberty senator in Nelson. I saw no difference.

        Scott pandered to the leftist elite in South Florida so he could win the seat.

        Maybe real conservative will run in a few years. That goes for Rubio as well.

        1. avatar X marks the spot says:

          Rubio? Are you blind, he’s probably the biggest RINO in Florida right now.

        2. avatar Specialist38 says:

          I agree. Did you actually read my comments.?

        3. avatar Geoff "I'm getting too old for this shit" PR says:

          “Maybe real conservative will run in a few years. That goes for Rubio as well.”

          Guess who announced they are moving their home to the Miami area? A Trump the younger…

    2. avatar TheUnspoken says:

      Not just Rick Scott, but his Republican majority in the legislature as well. The Republican leadership in Florida is pretty anti-gun rights. They gave in to the Parkland kids (and tried to even ban AR sales for 2 years with a voice vote). Most pro-gun bills get sent to committee to die. “Gunshine state” indeed.

      1. avatar Debbie W. says:

        Let’s be stupid and zero in on everyone that is not the best but far better than the alternative…That’s the same game plan used by politically inept azzhats on this forum to zero in on POTUS DJT. Ungrateful azzhats forgot all about what it would be like under a hilliary rotten clintoon and acted like spoiled brats.
        Next you have the party mouth bigots on this forum making wagers if the perp is Black every time a headline crime is commited. Those are all helpful ingredients for a disaster known as biden/harris.
        If the clowns on this forum shoot the same way they talk politics they could not hit the broadside of a barn.

  3. avatar Green Mtn. Boy says:

    Gun control besides being un Constitutional especially the deprivation of ones due process is a failure,however the braindead civilian disarmament proponents also fail to comprehend truth or facts and lack all ability to comprehend.

  4. avatar Nonips says:

    Bull this is a Blanton INFRINGEMENT on Our Constitutional Rights as Written SUE the hell out of these criminals that are breaking the Law and forcing a. Illegal Law all who are involved sued and cost them their jobs in any government state or federal

  5. avatar Anymouse says:

    But, but, but … just think how much higher those rates would have been had the Red Flag Laws not been in place. Also, communism hasn’t worked because the wrong people have been running it, but WE know how to do it right

    1. avatar Montana Actual says:

      Said every commie, ever.

      It’s so amusing to hear these idiots give you a “benefit of socialism or communism” speech only to have someone from those countries they compare it to totally shut them down. Like Canada and healthcare… If they love it so much, migrate there and good luck.

      1. avatar The Crimson Pirate says:

        I had a lot of Canadian patients back in San Antonio who came down here to pay for things that Canada’s socialized medicine would not provide.

        IIRC Stefan Molyneux went to Arizon to get his cancer excised. The way he tells it, it might have eventually happened in Canada, but he was looking at a year wait just to see all the docs he needed to see to get it approved.

        1. avatar JP Ruiz says:

          Rationed Healthcare; Isn’t it wonderful. You pay massive amounts taxes to be rationed “Free” Healthcare that is assigned to you by taxpayer subsidized bureaucrats.

          If you die of cancer on a treatment waiting list,……it’s ok ……YOU’RE COVERED! Free Healthcare.

        2. avatar Geoff "I'm getting too old for this shit" PR says:

          What will happen is a two-tier health care system where ‘The Poors’ get highly-rationed care and those with money get the best care they can afford with no waiting times.

          That’s the very best way to breed class resentment and a straight path to a good old-fashioned Communist-Marxist revolution.

          Is the government going to force doctors to treat the poor? If it comes to that, doctors en-mass will say “Fuck this noise” and let their license lapse. Doctors are smart people, they can go do something else and make good money. Then, the number of doctors will drop, exaggerating the doctor shortage. The poor will have to wait even longer to get care, and that will piss them off even more.

          Allowing leftist scum to run healthcare is the fastest way to turn America into a third-world shithole. But that’s what Leftist scum want, equity. They lie and say they will “spread the money around” (An actual Obama quote, an camera, no less, to ‘Joe the plumber’). It doesn’t work, it only spreads poverty and misery, but they want that as well, because that is ‘sustainable’….

        3. avatar Sam I Am says:

          “That’s the very best way to breed class resentment and a straight path to a good old-fashioned Communist-Marxist revolution.”

          Same result, either way.

          Illustrates that humans are not, at the core, “good”. A two-tier system should be an incentive to get to the top tier, yet people just want whatever they want, without effort/responsibility. The Mayflower Company tried the “one for all, all for one” thing. They ended up starving until the rules of the colony were changed to reward effort, and not reward sloth.

          What you stealthily recommend is merely “To each according to his need, from each according to his ability”.

  6. avatar Dude says:

    “touting the alleged success of red flag laws, their “metric” is always…Look how many guns we took away!”

    That IS what makes it successful (taking guns, not saving lives).

  7. avatar Sam I Am says:

    “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”.

    Not a fan of presenting statistics/data as “number per 100,000…”. For the non-statistician, that information is not information, but data.

    To create information from the presented data, I want to know, “How would the 3500 Red Flag uses have influenced the number of deaths per year, if the presumed murders and suicides had actually happened? To answer that question, I found a CDC page (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm) listing the number of deaths by firearm, per state.

    The number for 2018 was 2902 (didn’t take time to look deeper for 2019 and 2020 data). According to the thrust of the article referenced in this posting, an additional 1750 deaths in both 2019 and 2020 would have happened without Red Flag law in place; a nearly 50% per year increase in firearm related deaths. Yet, apparently no one is claiming the prevention of a 50% rise deaths from firearms in 2019 and 2020. Why?

    One might conclude that without firearm laws, something would have set off a killing spree unlike anything seen in Florida before. But one must also ask whether it was something else that prevented those additional deaths, prior to Red Flag laws? One must assume that prior to Red Flag law, the “prevented” additional 1750 deaths were already part of the total firearm related deaths. Again, we must ask what would have caused the spike of 1750 additional firearm deaths in 2019 and 2020, if Red Flag laws were not in effect?

    There is something rotten in the state of Denmark.

  8. avatar Debbie W. says:

    It’s the Blacks and democRats doing, all of it!

    1. avatar Geoff "I'm getting too old for this shit" PR says:

      Not the real Deborah…

      1. avatar Debbie W. says:

        Thank you for always loving me, “Geoff”. Call me…

  9. avatar Dennis Sumner says:

    C’mon man! You tryin to tell us more gun laws dont work!?

    1. avatar Montana Actual says:

      C’mon man!

  10. avatar Leigh says:

    My questions:
    How many were false reports by disgruntled partners or family members?
    How many of these people got their guns back?
    How long did it take?
    How difficult was the process?
    Were they in the same shape as when confiscated?

    1. avatar Geoff "I'm getting too old for this shit" PR says:

      “My questions:
      How many were false reports by disgruntled partners or family members?”

      That will never happen, since no woman has ever lied about being raped :

      https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/08/05/209194252/15-years-later-tawana-brawley-has-paid-1-percent-of-penalty

      1. avatar Miner49er says:

        Hey wait a minute, I thought you folks said NPR was totally leftist propaganda?

        And here you are quoting their story, what gives?

        Is it possible NPR is actually the fair and balanced source that covers both sides of the issues pretty well, satisfying no one which means they’re getting it right?

  11. avatar BluesMike says:

    Isn’t 14.5 less than 15.3 (suicides)? Maybe I haven’t figured out how to read that table. It’s a bit confusing.

    1. avatar Serpent_Vision says:

      Lower than 15.3, but higher than 14.1 for the 2 years before due process for gun confiscation was repealed.

  12. avatar M. Murcek says:

    Desperation is the polar opposite of reason. Someone who has decided self elimination is preferable to life is not going to follow any law…

  13. avatar Mack The Knife says:

    Keep this in mind the next time Rick Scott, then Governor of Florida and Marco Rubio are lauded as pro 2A senators. They are both the fathers of Florida’s red flag law and the required age of 21 to purchase a long gun.

  14. avatar Brooke King says:

    The homicide and suicide rates in the article are astoundingly high. They are listed as per 1,000 residents. They are actually per 100,000 residents. Someone should fix the article.

Write a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

button to share on facebook
button to tweet
button to share via email