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Data on policing and race is complex and nuanced. Police killings of unarmed suspects are rare, according to the Washington Post, and they’ve been declining. Numbers peak at 95 for all races in 2015, declining to 32 for all races in 2021.    

When it comes to police shootings of unarmed individuals, white suspects are shot more often than black suspects (by contrast, Asians are rarely shot by police compared to either group). Though more unarmed whites than blacks are killed by police, black suspects are indeed proportionally overrepresented.  …

One might conclude that, perhaps, overrepresentation of black Americans as perpetrators of violent crime might be due to overpolicing of black communities. However, when we look at victims of homicide, most of which are the same race as the killers, we see the same pattern of black victims being overrepresented. This means the overpolicing hypothesis does not fit the data.    

It is also worth noting that most young men of any ethnicity do not commit violent crimes. Race itself is not a determinant of violent crime. In one recent study, although racial composition of neighborhoods predicted violent crime, race no longer predicted violent crime once other community factors such as insufficient food, housing issues, air pollution and proportion of single-parent homes are controlled.

Studies largely find the same thing when it comes to excessive use of police force. In another recent study, we found that class issues, particularly communities experiencing higher levels of mental health issues among residents — not race — predicted reports of excessive police force (except for Latinos, who reported less police force). To be fair, studies on this do vary in conclusion.  However, in my view the weight of evidence suggests that class, not race, predicts excessive police force.    

We found that higher levels of mental health problems among community residents predicted reports of excessive police force. This is probably because police are likely coming into contact with mentally ill residents who may escalate an encounter that began over something trivial. Other studies also suggest the chronically mentally ill more often experience physical force during police encounters. The mentally ill may struggle to respond to aggressive police commands. Thus, relatively minor encounters initially may intensify into dangerous situations. Better police training with mental illness may help.  …

Though often ostensibly speaking on behalf of minority groups, progressive theories on race have often made practical situations worse. The most obvious cost to low-income neighborhoods has been in delegitimizing or even defunding police and the predictable surge in crime that created. Evidence does suggests (sic) that the George Floyd protests and riots were associated with increased resignations of police officers as well as decreased policing in high-crime neighborhoods. These in turn, were associated with increased violent crime.    

There are more subtle, harmful impacts as well. Informing people that they are at ever-present danger from police can be traumatizing. Research has long demonstrated that convincing people they are victims causes them to perceive injustice where it may not actually occur.    

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    • Good to see that you’re intimately familiar with white nationalist talking points.

      When’s your next Klan meeting? Can you work that in between your Gestapo seminars and goose-step drills?

    • A day in the life of jsled:

      Wakes up.
      Grabs coffee.
      Checks TTAG.
      Sees something tangentially related to race.
      Calls everyone racist.
      Goes back to sleep.

      Until next time, you bigots.

      • “Until next time,…”

        Oh, look everyone!

        Another anonymous troll slinging accusations doesn’t have the balls to show who he is.

        Wassamatter, no balls, little boy?

        (Very little, I’ll bet! 😉 )

    • fyi
      Thank you to Dr. Thomas Sowell.

      “The Origin of the Left’s War on White People in America”
      video 6 min long

  1. ace itself is not a determinant of violent crime. In one recent study, although racial composition of neighborhoods predicted violent crime, race no longer predicted violent crime once other community factors such as insufficient food, housing issues, air pollution and proportion of single-parent homes are controlled.

    Serious question for the statistically-inclined: How does one “control” for confounding variables in systems with feedback loops? We talk about controlling for things like food insecurity or single-parent homes because these things are believed to contribute to crime, but we know that violent crime also contributes to both of these things in very direct and concrete ways. After all, if a father is murdered, he obviously will no longer be in his children’s lives. Likely, his murderer won’t be in his children’s lives, either. Burn down the supermarket, eventually they stop rebuilding it. In complex social systems, there’s often no clean line between “dependent” and “independent” variables. And surely, treating effects as confounding causes must create no end of mischief in statistical analysis.

    • Two answers:

      One, you can “control” for confounding variables by measuring the response of metrics in data sets that don’t have those variables present (or not as present) and seek to establish what the skew effect is of those confounding variables. If that skew is observable, repeatable and predictable, you can back that effect out of the results of an analysis. Simple example – You have two hotels that each have 100 rooms. You monitor water consumption daily and compare that to occupancy. If, on certain days, you have zero or near zero occupancy you can establish a baseline for water use by the building but not the guests. You then can compare that to the (presumable) increase in water usage when there are 10 guests, 20 guests, … If, you observe that, over time, the baseline water usage plus the guest usage is, let’s say, an average of 50 gallons per day and then you observe that water usage jumps to an average of 75 gallons per day at one hotel, you can state that you have seen a change at that one hotel – maybe you have a leak, or a bunch of people taking really long showers, or an employee that never turns the sink in the break room off or so on and so on. Then, let’s say you obtain a third 100 room hotel and you measure that the water usage is always 75 or more gallons per person per day. That would indicate that there is some fundamental difference between this hotel and the others. Maybe it too has a leak or, maybe the new hotel has a swimming pool and the other two don’t. If, one could establish that the swimming pool can be expected to consume a certain amount of water per day then, one could back that consumption out of the total to establish a new expectation of water consumption by the guests themselves.

      Two: (The very common and more dubious approach) You can *choose* those variables you don’t want to be represented in your response data and remove their impact from your analysis.

      • The problem with the first approach is that you generally can’t find that sort of situation with regards to social phenomena like crime or poverty, and if you do find it it’s highly dubious whether the results hold in the general case.

        The problem with the second is that you end up correcting for effects instead of causes. If A causes B, and B causes C, then correcting for C mutes the contribution of A on B, does it not?

  2. Different races have different rates of violent crime because of their genes.

    Blacks have genes that make them less intelligent and more violent, compared to whites.
    Asians have genes that make them more intelligent and less violent, compared to whites.

    The idea of racial equality is one of the most disgusting and harmful lies in all of history.

    • Here we go again with the (discredited) eugenics. It’s CULTURE not genes.

      • Sigh MAOA and it’s a mix of both, nature and nurture with the importance of either being an individual issue.

      • Likely a troll throwing in their overt racism so they can send a screenshot to their gun-grabber friends as evidence that gun owners are racists.

      • And a culture descended from southern white cracker culture. A culture where any perceived insult must be met by violence either by “cultural mutual combat” (aka a form of duel), or spontaneous action.

        A culture where those in power take measures to ensure no one rises above them. Everyone is dragged down to their level.

        These people then blame whitey and claim victimhood of systemic racism to justify their actions.

    • Thomas Sowell has done great work demonstrating that the relevant racial differences are more cultural than genetic. He has researched ethnic minorities in societies around the globe and throughout history.

      Even in the genetic sphere, we now know that epigenetics plays a large role. Genes are turned on and off by environment and the genes then cause behavior that alters the environment, which again activates and deactivates genes.

      When my Irish ancestors arrived in America their IQ level was the same as that of blacks. Within 2 generations they came up to par with the WASPs.

      Same for the Italians.

      What saved both was having to operate in a free market with no safety net. Individual responsibility for the win.

      Between the end of WW2 and the passage of the welfare programs in the 60’s black IQ was rising faster than IQ in any other group. Other areas in which the same phenomena were occurring include education, professionals entering the workforce, businesses being started, savings, and improved housing.

      When you look at a graph of black progress and then regress over the decades it is clear that the welfare programs of the 60’s were what wrecked them.

      If not for government, the races in America would be equal. And we see in the UK that prior to the recent flood of direct 3rd world immigrants, blacks born and raised in the UK were statistically no different than white limeys.

      As for Asian genes, the relevant ones seem to be not for IQ or passivity, but for cooperation and communal action. It is generally thought that this evolved from the highly cooperative nature of early rice agriculture which is quite distinct from the more nuclear family nature of grain agriculture commonly developed in Europe and Middle East.

      In any case, black genetics can be fixed in about 2 generations of having to take responsibility. And I know and work with plenty of black people who are clearly genetically on par with any of my fellow crackers right now.

      • I hope in the end Sowell is proven correct and his suggestions are followed with vigor. Even if there are genetic limits for some it would still stand to improve all.

        • As long as there are progressives in government they will never allow his suggestions to be followed.

          There is about 10% of the general population regardless of race that is unable to be trained to do anything without causing more harm than good. These people need to be cared for. They used to be taken care of by their families and many still are. Aside from them, there is a place in free market for everyone.

          Another interesting thing is the Flynn Effect. IQ test are renormed every so often to keep the average at 100 to 105. They do this because IQ in general is rising and if they hadn’tbeen adjusted ordinary people today would have genius level IQs compared to previous generations. So black people (and anyone else) who have an 85 IQ on today’s tests would have been rated much more highly in past decades. Unfortunately good IQ research is no long fashionable, so the answers to why this is have been long in coming.

      • fyi

        The “people” who can’t afford to go to college to be taught by Dr Sowell, are getting his wisdom thru these videos.

        “How Schools Are Dumbing Down Young Students | Thomas Sowell”
        video 4 min long

    • After the 1960s and 70s civil rights movement, the minority population started to leave government dependence and buy homes, start their own businesses, and find good-paying jobs. By becoming less and less dependent on the government, many also started to become more conservative in how they voted and how they raised their children. The Democrats were seeing their voting base starting to crumble. Their new strategy is to create new victims of racism by reversing the process of judging one by their character and not by their skin color. They have succeeded in turning everything ass-backward by doing away with equality and replacing it with equal outcomes. Thereby going back to judging people by their skin color and not by their character or ability. I am not fooled by them, but too many other people are and some who are just politically corrupt.

    • Only if we wrongly assume Equality as an exponent of Intelligence. I’ve had the pleasure of knowing and interacting with many intelligent people from the various races. Just as I’ve known many stupid people of various races as well.
      There is no Equality when it comes to Intelligence. Intelligence is a product of multiple factors, some of which, an individual has no control over.
      Does having a MENSA level IQ grant one more Rights than the individual of average or below average IQ? If it does, then there’s a serious issue with a Society’s view of Equality. Conversely, granting more Rights to the Average or Sub-Average IQ Individual than the MENSA level IQ Individual is equally a unviable view of Equality.
      That was the biggest problem with Affirmative Action from the beginning.
      I certainly wouldn’t want to get into a match of wits contest against Thomas Sowell, Clarence Thomas, or Dr. Ben Carson, yet I would be ashamed of the IQ advantage I’d have over Maxine Waters, Sheila Jackson-Lee or Cori Bush.
      Genetics plays a role, but it isn’t the sole deciding factor in determining an individual of any race’s success. Cultural, Educational, Nutritional, Financial, Health Care Access, and Religious Influences also have a role in determining an Individual’s character, and Intelligence.
      Equality has had far too many qualifiers added to the word in my humble opinion. Adding all those qualifiers to Equality has given birth to the idea of Equity, which is demonstrably a very destructive concept.
      We, as a Society, need to return to our Founders definition of Equality. That is that we all have the Equal Rights Divine Providence granted us at birth. That all Individuals have the Right to Life, Liberty and to pursue Happiness, but none of these should be at the expense of another Individual.

  3. Where is the look at “mentally ill” against the use of narcotics (Pot on up). Black guys gotta have their pot/etc.

    • Increased and earlier onset of schizophrenia for those genetically predisposed to it with marijuana use. Inconclusive and random for other dreg classes but fuck dealing with bath salts.

    • I tried Pot a couple of times in my Teens. it was not a pleasant or pleasurable experience. It made me extremely Paranoid. Hide under the kitchen table Paranoid. I would though, share the observations of seeing a fair number of classmates who started using in their teens and continued to use into adulthood.
      Most, are what I would term, Socially Developmentally Stunted/Stagnant. Exhibiting the same Teenage Behavior patterns as adults. The maturity that should come with age and experience is either minimal or absent all together. It becomes really evident if they’re high when you interact with them (I noted that at my 20th, 30th and 40th High School Reunions, when several got together in the parking lot to get lit). Pretty sad to watch really.
      A few, most of whom long since passed, went on to use harder drugs.
      Marijuana may not be addictive in the same way as Opiates, but those Stoners I know personally, live and work for their next high.

  4. This is a much clearer look at the issues than I am used to seeing in print. Bound to be a few halfwits calling this out as racist but they would do that with objective crime data too so who cares. Good starting point for intro to modern crime’s gordian knot.

    • It’s “Third rail” is to discuss impolite reality that might go against the current (libtard) orthodoxy. Must dance around the subject.

      Another example being whether degenerate sexual habits are genetic (nature) or cultural (nuture). The current media/prog endorsed fad of tranny/homosexual leads to more of it by the impressionable/weak mined.

      As does naming the SOBs who commit “mass murder”. (Might get dead but will be famous syndrome).

      Or mass illegal immigration being the current dem “get out the vore” program (replacing their urban plantation black voting block).

      • Re degenerate sexual habits try looking into how parasite infection can influence behavior and development. Third rail I hope is merely coincidence and has no basis in reality.

  5. Blame the gun , no matter what.

    From NY Post &

    A man went to CIA Headquarters and said, ‘I’m here and I have a gun,’ source says. He was later arrested at a preschool with an AK-47 in his car

    He told the arresting officer that he “worked for the CIA,”

  6. According to the media white supremacists are an increasingly diverse group what with all the Black, Indian, Asian and Hispanic faces of white supremacy lately. Far more diverse than BLM even.

    • And more diverse than lil’d’s antifa troop. They are all so pasty white they would glow in the dark if the lights were turned off.

  7. Politics is everything; everything is politics. In politics, racism is everything; everything is racist….even discussing racism is racist.

    Regarding racism, the First Amendment protects speech that is racist, wrong, disconcerting, unwelcomed, unwanted, and causes others to “melt down”. It also protects the right of association, and the right to not associate.

    Just to be clear, I don’t like anyone, anywhere, at all. I don’t want to associate with anyone, anywhere, anytime. It is my natural, human and civil right to hold everyone in contempt, ignore anyone and everyone, hope that everyone (except me), fails at whatever they attempt to accomplish, along with those who attempt to accomplish anything.

    Thus, I cannot be compelled to be nice to everyone take care not to offend through speech, constrain my speech so as to protect childish minds in adult bodies. Such people are mentally disabled, beyond redemption, an unnecessary drain on resources of the world. If “natural selection” (a trait common to all living creatures) works to eliminate those contemptable adult children, then why be concerned with whatever removes them from society?

    While I am free to say anything I wish, I am not free to physically harm anyone I dislike. Thus, my desire to not associate with anyone protects the rest of society by constraining my actions, but not my speech.

    “You” stay away from me, and I stay away from “you”; win – win, eh?

    (please do not overthink this diatribe/rant/tirade/outburst/babble)

    • Not so fast sam you are…There’s the Documented, Confirmed History of Race Based Atrocities in America and the political party those race based atrocities are attributed too.

      For many decades the goal of the democRat Party is to bit by bit rewrite History and shift blame for their race based atrocities to the Party of Lincoln. I E…If you assume marchers for Gun Control do not also believe Gun Owners are racists you need to get out and about more often. Mention white supremacist and does democRat or does Republican come to mind? White supremacist is a product of the democRat Party…History also Confirms that.

      Marchers begging for Gun Control were never told History Confirms Gun Control in any shape, matter or form is Rooted in Racism and Genocide. That’s something their leaders will not and cannot ever say about Gun Control. And what’s worse are double talk free speech buttheads like you who bark at Free Speech encompassing the History of Gun Control.

      • And for the centuries of disarmament where the race of subjects, slaves, and conquered peoples were utterly irrelevant to the rulers often of the same race?

        • Careful. That is an inconvenient truth.

          According to Pr0gressives, ONLY blacks have been slaves, and enslaved by whites.

          The facts that slaves were the result of inter tribal warfare and sold to whites on the coast is inconvenient. And any white who went into the African interior at the time died from disease in weeks to months is irrelevant.

          And the middle east slave trade lasted well into the 20th century is also inconvenient.

          This is why Pr0gressives try to do a 1984 style of rewriting history to preserve their grip on power. Note in appendices of 1984 the party and Newspeak are referred to in the past tense.

  8. Perps come in all sizes, colors, genders, etc. Self defense boils down to the individual having the mindset to expect the unexpected. If someone is expecting a perp to be a certain race, etc. the fool may be setting themselves up for disappointment and failure.

  9. All the ” theories ” and social studies are for excuse making with one single goal in mind.

    As many had said , give them an inch , they will (try) to take a mile.

    After house passage in Pennsylvania of HB 1018 , red flag and HB 714 , UBC , the usual grabbers are back with another long gun and magazine ban – SB 200.

  10. This article just about covers the subject of “racism” very thoroughly. I am sure our resident Lefties will object strenuously.

  11. Oh cool we’re making this a page about race instead of giving us news about firearms.

  12. “Racing is going to suck when it’s all electric.”

    By then, racers will have the technology to holographically present loud engine noise, smoke and exhaust flame, to simulate muscle cars.

    Or maybe just create holographic races, entirely.

    • I watched a few minutes of a Formula E race. Halfway through, everyone stopped and jumped into a second set of cars with fresh batteries.

      I wonder what happens when it rains? But I don’t care enough to watch another FE race.

      Real F1 will be on this weekend, the Monaco race. Those cars still make real engine sounds.

      • “Halfway through, everyone stopped and jumped into a second set of cars with fresh batteries.”

        E-racing is a gross misuse of eternally limited electricity. Such frivolous waste of electricity creates a pending catastrophic impact to climate change.

        • This was my first introduction as a kid into electric powered vehicles.

          From 1973

          “Engineer Robert Brookings Lange, Sr., encouraged his fourteen-year-old nephew, Jimmy Gronen, to install an electromagnet and battery in his soap box derby car.”

          “Jimmy Gronen holds up his championship trophy for winning the national soap box derby on August 18, 1973. He lost the trophy the next day for cheating.”

  13. After the 1960s and 70s civil rights movement, the minority population started to leave government dependence and buy homes, start their own businesses, and find good-paying jobs. By becoming less and less dependent on the government, many also started to become more conservative in how they voted and how they raised their children. The Democrats were seeing their voting base starting to crumble. Their new strategy is to create new victims of racism by reversing the process of judging one by their character and not by their skin color. They have succeeded in turning everything ass-backward by doing away with equality and replacing it with equal outcomes. Thereby going back to judging people by their skin color and not by their character or ability. I am not fooled by them, but too many other people are and some who are just politically corrupt.

  14. A major problem in racial disparities regarding crime, either victim or perpetrator, come from the last 60 years of the Great Society and the destruction of traditional values and common morality. Along with the perpetual victimhood being spoon fed from birth in certain communities. Much of this was and still is aimed at the urban poor.
    People will find their own level of what they are willing to tolerate. Whether it be crime, religion, government interference in their lives, discrimination for whatever reason, etc.
    At some point those living in high crime areas will either find a way to get out, think white flight to the suburbs, or fight back, think vigilantes.
    There has been a constant drumbeat in the urban, black community for decades that there is no hope of getting ahead or getting out because of systemic or ingrained racism. With the only chance being to support a particular political party/agenda and get a few crumbs from the masters table. This neither encourages education, nor work ethic. After all, why bother if there is no hope. While it may sound cruel, cutting off the majority of public aid is the only way many people will ever realize it is in their best interests to get out and provide for themselves in any legal manner they can.

  15. I saw this documentary when it was originally broadcast back in the 1980s. I believe it is a 5 or 8 part series. Dr. Walter Williams was a hero of mine. And a regular guest host on the Rush Limbaugh show. May both of them rest in peace. Now fortunately videos like this and others are being watched by millions of people.

    I don’t believe “they” had good intentions. I think “they” had, and still have, the soft bigotry of low expectations.

    “Good Intentions” with Walter E. Williams
    video 30 min long

  16. The simple truth is it’s not genetics it’s culture. Even the racism narrative falls apart at that point; People who come here from other countries do well despite the “racism” in the US. Women who are black do well despite the supposed “racism” in the US. If the US were so racist why aren’t the black women being discriminated against as much as the men?

    Now then where I think this goes wrong is what causes the issues that cause people to be criminals? I don’t see a mention of family or fathers at all. Maybe it should be mentioned that a huge proportion of the black population in the US is eugenically killed yearly and that last stats I saw the fatherless rate of black children was something like 76%. The state makes for a horrid dad, and that’s a fact proven by the successes and failures statistically regardless of race.

  17. Racism- Liberals weapon of choice for their immature, naïve, members of the self-pity party’s excuse for everything.

    • I do not think it’s a pity party. 12 more years of Dthemsocrats and excuses will not be needed.
      Kim doesn’t excuses, and neither will New America.

  18. @possum
    “I’ve got a solution for that. Illegal immigrants, beans, and wind farms.”

    Don’t think they grow beans big enough to turn a wind turbine.

  19. We need to understand something: The people who believe those asinine theories are just tools and fools. The Powers That Be know better. They are working hard to undermine the United States of America. They WANT a civil war, they’ll settle for cultural revolution, much as Chairman Mao settled for a cultural revolution.

    No one with a lick of sense, and moderate intelligence, believes anything the left is telling the world today.

    “Oh, we have to show the criminals TOLERANCE, because they’ve had BAD LIVES!!!” I can show a wild animal a whole lot of tolerance, right up until that wild animal threatens me and mine. Then, it’s “Praise the Lord, and Pass the Ammunition!”

    • Brandon McGlone, 49…has a history of domestic violence against his wife and was charged with two felonies on Sept. 1, 2020, after McGlone was found guilty of repeatedly striking his wife with a pistol and punching her in the face.

      On September 14, 2020, McGlone entered the Feng Cha Teahouse at 2528 Durant Ave and set two Asian men on fire after attempting to set fire to two others outside of the store, according to court documents. During the fight, McGlone pulled out weapons which included a knife and an axe.

      Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, who ran on “racial equity”, agreed to the plea deal after reaching an agreement with the public defender’s office…

      At a court hearing on April 28, Judge James Cramer said that all charges “will be dismissed” if McGlone successfully completes the diversion program.

      Compare and contrast with the nonviolent Jan 6 defendants.

  20. Frankly, the rise of the Welfare State is the prime causative factor in the rise in Racial Criminality. And that’s across the board for all Races.
    Uncle Sam is a very Schitty Baby Daddy and Poor Father Figure.

  21. @Chris T in Ky

    That’s funny.

Comments are closed.