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If you are shot in Chicago today, what are the odds that the shot will prove fatal? Chicago offers us a real world count to determine the percentage of people who are shot that die. The limitation is that the numbers are only those that are recorded by the authorities.

The numbers probably undercount minor woundings. There is significant motivation for people who have received minor wounds from a defensive gun use or during a criminal act, to avoid hospital treatment. Gunshot wounds are reported to the police in every state. Criminals know this; they have a strong incentive to avoid hospital treatment for minor wounds.

The number of people shot and the number killed by gunshot, as reported to the authorities in Chicago, has been closely tracked by a web site titled Hey Jackass!  They have tracked the numbers from 2013 to the present. Here are their numbers. From 2013 heyjackass:

In 2013, a total of 2185 were shot, that were recorded. Of those 375 were killed. No breakout of self defense shootings were done for 2013.

In 2014, a total of 2619 were shot. Of those, 390 were killed. One-hundred-seventy-six of the fatalities were “cleared”, that is someone was arrested for the shooting. There were five self defense shootings noted.

In 2015, a total of 2996 were shot. Of those 445 were killed. There were five official self defense shootings and 144 killings that were “cleared” by an arrest.

In 2016 through May 29, 1514 had been shot and 228 of those were killed. There were six homicides declared as justified self defense and 56 arrests.

The number of people shot, from 2013 through May 29th, 2016, was 9314. Of those, 1438, or 15.4% were killed. The ratio is one person killed for each 6.4 people who were shot.

The percentage is amazingly similar to results cited by Philip J. Cook in 1985. He wrote that a number of studies indicated that 15% of gun shot victims reported to police, died.  While I have not been able to find the studies cited by Cook, the number from 30 years ago is remarkable consistent with those found in Chicago today.

©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
Link to Gun Watch

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  1. Just goes to show you how bad Chicago is. All that shooting, and nobody’s getting any better at it.

    +^ Harambe

  2. Statistically, this is pretty good news. Although it doesn’t go on to say how their quality of life is, but having an 85% survival rate from being shot is pretty good odds.

    • I’d be willing to bet, if there were anyway to separate them out, that the mortality rate is higher among victims that couldn’t for whatever reason shoot back, than among those that could/did.

    • I would really love to know how much of a role that movement played in the numbers. How many victims were frozen in place versus moving … in the dead column as well as the survivor column?

  3. Lots of boys spraying and “preying”. That and small caliber guns used. Nothing to see here…and a “new” category of mobile shooter on the expressway,highway and Lake Shore Drive…

  4. So by rough math, Chicago accounts for ~5% of the total gun homicides in the entire U.S. every year. Democrats should be so proud.

  5. Cross reference the total number of shootings versus the shot placement on the heyjackass website. 15% average, but that percentage goes up significantly for torso and head shots. Also, gang bangers have a significant problem with flinch and trigger pull. The majority of shots hit the lower extremities.

  6. Handguns are not death rays
    Plenty of people survive being shot with pistols, even by the dreaded .45
    Rifles are far more effective

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