I saw this analysis on Reddit yesterday, and I thought it was brilliant. Compiled by user RESHP1, it tracks the weekly price of a Colt LE6920 as determined by the lowest and highest price paid for a successful auction on Gunbroker. What’s really interesting is how there are two peaks in the price; one a few weeks after the panic started and another after president Obama announced his support for an assault weapons ban during the SHOT Show. In general, though, the trend is a downwards one. People seem to be running out of money and supply is starting to catch up with demand. The incoming flood of tax refund checks will keep things hairy for a bit, but the worst may well be over. For now. Make the jump for RESHP1’s more detailed analysis . . .
The psychology of a mass panic buying event has always been interesting to me for some reason… that and I’m waiting the market to die down a bit for my own AR-15 so the pricing trends are of particular interest to me. I decided to track the new in box prices of three popular AR-15s since when the Sandy Hook School shooting happened. For each week starting 11/30/2012, I found the highest and lowest price for an auction that actually sold. The prices are for the week following the date of the data points on the graphs (the 11/30 data point covers prices from 11/30-12/6 for example)
I chose to track three guns: The Colt LE6920, the Bushmaster XM-15 Magpul Edition, and the DPMS Oracle. I chose these guns because they are popular and are spread across the spectrum from premium to budget. They were also easy to search for and return results mostly of comparable guns. Filtering which auctions were apples to apples comparisons was sometimes a challenge since some sellers would throw in accessories and there were often subtle changes in features/colors between the guns in different auctions. I tended to be a little more selective for the low end of the pricing, filtering out auctions that deviated too much in features/accessories, but was more lax in the upper end just to show some of the wilder price flucuations.
There were some interesting things I noticed that may not be obvious from the graphs alone. [CLICK HERE FOR THE OTHER GRAPHS]
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There was about a 3-7 day lag after Sandy Hook. The movement in price was almost immediately noticeable (more accurately, the ratio of existing auctions that closed with a sale increased immediately), but full out panic mode didn’t really start until a week or so. The peak was generally the first week of 2013.
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Prices spiked again after the recommendations of the Biden Gun Violence Task Force were released on 1/17/2013. Things were starting to calm down before that, where sellers were starting to find the top of the market again and where those top price auctions were not meeting their reserve or even getting an opening bid (Previously, almost every single auction resulted in a sale. The only exceptions seemed to be when auctions were closed early, presumably since the gun sold locally)
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The price increase was expected, but the variation was just insane. During the first couple of weeks, basically no one knew the value of anything and it was oviously apparent. You had sellers a little slow to adapt offering Buy-it-now prices at what I’m sure they thought was a really healthy mark-up next to penny auctions that got bid up in some cases thousands of dollars higher. On the tail end you also had people impulse buying at ridiculous prices while the majority of other auctions at the time were closing at much lower prices. Those who did their homework definitely made out ahead and those who didn’t were liable to get burned badly.
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There was a noticeable drop in volume in early January. The last two weeks have seen a recovery from that. Hopefully supply is at least stabilizing. There are now more and more auctions, and the prices are starting to stabilize as auctions are coalescing around a consistent threshold buyers are willing to pay. I’m also seeing a more normal ratio of auctions sold vs auctions unsold (about 3:1 unsold by my quick and dirty estimate), indicating sellers are indeed finding that threshold. You still see the occasional flier auction with a high starting bid, and sometimes they’re still finding a sucker to pay that price, but it’s much more rare.
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On an interesting side note, there was one guy asking $5000 for a special serial number colt LE6920 before the panic started. As far as I can tell, he seems to be the only seller not to sell his gun eventually through this panic cycle.
Apparently, the media recorded the ATF blasting music into the WACO compound (for psychological warfare reasons) before the last fatal day. One of the songs they played was that old rock song with the lyrics “you’re gonna burn”. Weird.
So glad I decided to make the jump and get mine around Halloween before all the panic started (not saying I saw it coming, just glad I avoided it). Saw the same gun I paid around $900 for going for $2,400 on a local classified last week.
The Troy Carbines we’re a really high value AR, Dick’s really screwed themselves lol
That being said…I don’t really feel sorry for the idiots paying $2000 for an entry level DPMS. More along the line of pity for them.
We need Mr. Colion Noir for President instead of that minstrel show spin artist we have now.
Interesting. A few weeks ago, many people were buying Magpuls at $40-50. Now, the general willing to buy price has dropped down to $25-30 (though some retailers are selling them for less when available). Last week, no one responded to my ads for Magpuls priced $30-35 though now at $25 people are buying them.
The banner is not inherently intolerable. However, the way my browser (Safari/OSX) has begun jumping to the bottom of the page is. While correlation is not proof of causation, it is worth investigating.
I’ll treat it with the same consideration I give to similar ads on Townhall, Daily Caller, and Yahoo! If I can ‘x’ it out then great. If not I’m able to ignore it after years of practice.
I guess my pop-up ad blocker works. Didn’t even know about it till I read this post. Go for it.
Starting a savings account now so the first thing I do after leaving cali is pick up both LaRue tactical and Olympic arms products. (I’m hoping they’ll stop selling to the state of CA if they haven’t already since the laws here are insane).
I guess he should be happy they didn’t call in a drone strike.
Sounds like a happy ending.
I run Firefox with adblock, so I don’t see hardly any ads anywhere. I have done this because of obtrusive ads, which I would say this would fall into that category. I don’t mind ads on the side or on the top, but I don’t like ads getting in the way of reading articles.
That thing is huge! The rifle is pretty large as well!
Looks like they didn’t have a dog to shoot so they shot the cat instead.
Cat was ok (hiding in the dryer!) – no thanks to them.
This was no fiction. More details will follow when attorneys permit.
Dan,
Pretty sure you had a CT and not an MRI. MRI for kidney stones is a lousy prospect, I guess it might work but CT of the abdomen and pelvis takes about 20 seconds of scan time versus 20-30 minutes minimum for MRI. They probably rolled you PAST the MRI scanner and put you in the CT. CT sees kidney stones like a big dog, MRI not so much and the resolution on MRI is about 1/4 that of CT, so when a 3mm stone can ruin your day you want a CT and not an MRI.
A 1.5T closed-bore MRI like the one pictured has a dumbell-shaped magnetic signature that is more prominent at the ends than the sides. Depending on the type of firearm it can very well grab that sucker HARD within a few feet of the bore entrance, and it won’t let go. The more steel in the weapon the harder it’s going to grab. I’ve seen it make a scalpel blade on a plastic handle hop a couple of inches when within a couple of feet of the bore, and as such I do MRI breast biopsies with titanium blades now instead of steel.
The MRI is always on. Under the shell are two big iron hoops, wrapped in superconducting wire and bathed in liquid helium in one vacuum bottle. That vacuum bottle is bathed in liquid nitrogen in yet another bottle. To turn the electromagnet off, you have to allow the cryogens to boil off. Refilling the cryogens used to be about $30,000…but liquid helium is more expensive than it used to be. Wouldn’t want to hazard a guess as to the cost now but it’s easily mid-5 figures. The only thing that turns on and off in a MRI is the magnetic gradient coils and the RF transmit-receive arrays. The main magnet is far and away the strongest and it’s always on.
Most patients do not know the difference between CTs and MRIs these days. MRIs take longer and are noisier is about the only way you can tell the difference in some models. CTs tend to be shorter in terms of how much of your body is in the magnet at a given time, but if the techs around you are wearing watches then you are in a CT, not an MRI. MRI gacks mechanical watches (even the Rolex Milgauss is only good up to 1.0T) and isn’t all that great for the electronic kind either. Nonferrous metal is safe in MRI rooms, so alumimum, etc. is kosher.
I like the looks of this one. It is more Browning HiPower than Beretta. I too want to see a review especially the reliability. I can see trading my XD/m compact for the 4.1″ barrel full sized version. I have no problem with the safety if the safe mode is up and not down like the M-9. The RoKs make good stuff.
Let’s see now…people with mental disorders publishing articles about….people with mental disorders (along with eating disorders judging by the picture), to a target audience of….people with mental disorders.
Just thinking about this kinda makes me dizzy.
Our favorite squirrels were always in our funding planks…
Out of three pronged funding there would always be either a: Benefit fish fry and rock concerts or b: legalization and monopolization of marijuana industry by the USDA.
Sometimes, opponents would ignore case-side argument completely.
So glad I waited until the lull after the panic to buy my M&P15 for $566. 😀