Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities
Courtesy Council on Criminal Justice and Arnold Ventures
Previous Post
Next Post

Gun assaults are aggravated assaults committed with a firearm. The monthly gun assault rate in the 15 cities with available data exhibits a clear upward cyclical trend over time, with no structural break in the series. (Recall that the structural break equation includes the linear trend in the data.) Gun assaults peaked in July of 2020, then declined through the end of the year.

In January and February, the average city gun assault rate increased by 12.7% over the same period in 2019. From March through May, the rate was -0.8% lower. For the summer months of June through August, the gun assault rate was 12.9% higher. For September through December, the rate was 9.5% higher.

From the declaration of emergencies in March through the end of the year, the average city gun assault rate increased by 7.4% over the same period in 2019. Across the entire year of 2020, the rate was 7.9% higher in 2020 than the year before, representing an additional 3,557 gun assaults across the 15-city sample.

— Council on Criminal Justice/Arnold Ventures, Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities

Previous Post
Next Post

73 COMMENTS

    • One can safely assume the cities in question are democRat strongholds and the majority of the perps have an arrest/incarceration record. And one can safely assume are most are prohibited possessors. It’s what you get when born, raised and fed demoCrap.

      However it does not matter if it is thousands more who criminally misuse firearms. The bottom line is Gun Control in any shape or form is rooted in racism and genocide therefore Gun Control is a racist and nazi based agenda. And with that said..Gun Control Must Die.

  1. Criminals will obtain guns no matter how many laws are passed. And most gun crimes are committed by gangs in large cities.

    • Considering drugs are illegally imported by the ton, guns and ammunition would be a lucrative sideline for the cartels.

        • Well, yeah, if you succeed in outlawing firearms, I would go to black markets, and I would be buying full auto, if it’s all illegal may as well do it up.

        • Yea, I’d start with explosives of the projectile variety instead. SAW’s are easy enough to come by, I’d start with the real kickers 😉

          Oops, todays fedboi just got out of his seat to go get his superior after that comment.

          Don’t push us, fedbois.

  2. Here’s a thought: Suppose Bidens first gun control EO is implemented under the authorities granted to the CDC (refer to the new Federal Covid mask requirement effective 2 days ago). Recall that the CDC and other individuals have been pushing the idea that “gun violence” is a “health crisis” for the past few years. Seems to me that tyranny has arrived.

    • That’s exactly why he put Becerra at HSS. He’s the worst. Coincidentally, he’s named in the California assault weapon ban trial that the FPC is engaging today. Will justice prevail? Who knows…

    • Not a terrible assumption since the CDC claimed the power to issue a rent moratorium.

      Regardless of how you feel about the action the CDCs statement makes clear that they feel they have the authority to issue to mess with lots of things if they first issue a declaration that the item/action in question some how affects public health or hampers public health control measures. Which seems like some pretty darn broad authority…

      “CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky signed a declaration determining that the evictions of tenants could be detrimental to public health control measures to slow the spread of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.”

      • Mostly. Mostly peaceful.

        Always remember that you gotta have that wiggle room in your language. So long as 50%+1 of people involved are “peaceful” this statement can be argued to be true.

        49.99% of people took part in burning an entire city to the ground? Well, 50.01% didn’t. That’s a majority and therefore the overall action was “mostly” peaceful.

        Wonderful what you can do with words.

  3. We know most if not all of these extra gun assaults were committed by Antifa and BLM terrorists in large Democrat cities. Lock up the terrorists and their Leftist enabler Mayors to get the rate to drop severely.

    • Also committed by criminals released from jails to save them from COVID, criminals release on no cash bail, and criminals emboldened by the police officers left demoralized, feeling unsupported, and giving up on doing their job. Just more reasons why Dem controlled cities are so fantastic.

  4. No sh*t sherlock. When the stupid mayors won’t have the police respond and have them stand down, what the hell do you expect. Criminals don’t obey the law – that’s why they are criminals. If they are caught, they are released because you can’t too many of the scum next to each other due to covid.

    • Yep. It isn’t complicated. They weren’t just a politically sponsored violent movement. They were also a corporate sponsored violent movement. The local mayors aren’t the only ones with blood on their hands.

  5. It’s because of the anti-police movement(s). Ironically the same police will confiscate firearms unlawfully just to keep their paychecks.
    There’s no winning right now for people who actually want freedom.

  6. From the third page of the study: “Homicide rates were 30% higher than in 2019, an historic increase representing 1,268 more deaths in the sample of 34 cities than the year before.”

    The “gun assault” rate (8%) didn’t rise in proportion to the homicide rate? Then you can’t pin this on the presence of guns.

    • 22% were shot by someone who tested positive for CoV-2 within 60 days of the shooting.

      So those deaths are properly classed as Covid deaths, or at least complications of Covid. I bet if you do the arithmetic you’ll find those deaths come with an average co-morbidity rate of 2.6 GSWs…

  7. Page 13: “The brief spike in nonresidential burglary coincided with the emergence in late May of mass protests against police violence in many cities.”
    LOL

  8. Okay, last one.
    “That said, rates increased significantly in June, well after the pandemic began, coinciding with the death of George Floyd and the mass protests that followed.”

    They had to admit that the spike in violent deaths were due to the mostly peaceful protests. Will that tidbit make it to the evening news?

    They still try to pin it on new firearm purchases even though they can’t prove it:

    “For example, some commentators have observed that massive increases in firearm purchases at the outset of the pandemic may have contributed to an increase in homicides and gun crimes. There is some preliminary evidence to support such a conclusion, but more research is required.”

    How much do these geniuses get paid to put this together? My guess is quite a bit.

    • Yeah I sat in my living room with my AR locked n loaded on May 31. My local 5-O did nothing. Various armed men protected homes & the LGS. WE’RE on our own! My FB friend went to Portland,OR yesterday (he lives in Vancouver,WA)and tells me it’s basically dead. If you voted D you should cut your throat…

      • If democrats accepted seppuku there would be no more democrats. There is no honor amongst thieves and liars. But still, I welcome the right to suicide. If they pushed it as hard as their right to kill babies that would help too.

        • You have to sell it correctly:
          “The global climate is in crisis. Emergency measures must be taken or the temperature will rise 100 degrees and the oceans will boil. Did you know the best way to lower your carbon footprint? Don’t have kids. Know the next best thing? Kill yourself and have your body composted. Do your part to save the planet!”

          Just a touch of sarcasm there. I’ve read articles of people already voluntarily sterilizing themselves or committing suicide because the planet will be unlivable in 10-20 years.

  9. Well clearly the law abiding need to be disarmed so that after several decades the supply of guns and ammo will dry up. That leaves the authorities with all the tools they need and the rest of on hold for 911.
    What could be wrong with this plan?

  10. I can’t believe how many people reading here still don’t get it: if law abiding people had no guns, criminals could not get them. If law abiding people didn’t own any tools to permit crimes to be committed, there would be almost no criminals. Law abiding people are the leading cause of criminals and crimes.

    • If the criminals want guns, there will be a black market to supply them. Smuggling from overseas or underground machine shops here. Criminals without guns will continue to have access to knives, clubs, fists and feet. The only real change will be that a small, weak victim will no longer be able to fight off a bigger, stronger assailant by pulling a five pound trigger.

      • When the ill-gotten fruits of imperialist capitalism are turned over to the BIPOC folks who deserve them, there will be no more income inequality and no more white privilege. Those whom capitalism has left behind will be rewarded according to the history of oppression that has defined them. With true racial and class equity achieved, there will be no reason for anyone to resort to violence.

        Bottom line: Your ideas of property and self-defense foster a self-perpetuating cycle of oppression and violence. If you’d stop clinging to your white privilege, nobody would *want* to attack you.

        • Not a student of ancient history, are you? There are millennia of history of warfare among nonwhites for which you do not account. You know, places like China, India, South and Central America (before the Spanish), the Middle East (of course), and the Mongol hordes that conquered most of the known world, and so on and so forth.

        • LOL…and all the black on black shooting and killing…where does WP come in there? Guess I missed that part…or was that all supposed to be sarcasm?

    • And if we continue down the Great Reset path laid out by the World Economic Forum (Davos), no one will be allowed to personally own anything – it will all belong to the collective. In this way the paradigm of theft will be destroyed. What was taken from you could not have been stolen since you never owned it. They are proposing that the “no ownership” condition even apply to your clothing – it would all belong to the collective represented by the State. This will totally eliminate property crimes since nothing really belongs to you anyway. What an ingenious way to lower the crime rate!

      • The worst part is those idiots who associate this with “reparation’s”. You would get no reparation’s. How could you, if the state/gov owned everything? You think if they own everything they are just going to give you what you want? lol. It was and always will be a sad excuse for under achievers to rip off more succesful people. If they wanted to talk about how we should limit certain companies from monopolizing an industry and in the process make them give back to local communities instead of outsourcing their labor for pennies on the dollar to countries that have no labor laws, then fine. We’d ALL love to see it. But reparations as a form of theft? Get real. The government would rather silence you any way possible than defend you, especially when it comes to property rights.

      • So (correct me if I’m wrong) if someone shoots the shit out of some manner of banger, no one can prove that my gun was used?

      • It’s an ingenious way to back 7+ billion people into a corner and get the Resetters murdered most brutally.

        That’s about all it is.

    • ” if law abiding people had no guns, criminals could not get them ”

      Silly rabbit… everybody knows that every gun in the hands of a low-life once had a cozy life in someone’s house. Didn’t you get the memo? 🙂

      • “Silly rabbit… everybody knows that every gun in the hands of a low-life once had a cozy life in someone’s house. Didn’t you get the memo? ”

        Musta been the memo that had a secondary use for a primary need.

    • Your logic is guns cause criminals to use them in committing crime. Guns are just tools. If there are no guns, criminals will use knives, clubs, kitchen utensils, garden tools, and even bare hands. What do you think happened before guns? How did the ancient empires get formed? It was hy ruthless people at the tip of a sword or spear.

      • “Your logic is guns cause criminals to use them in committing crime. ”

        The logic was that law abiding people provide all the tools that criminals use, therefore law abiding people are the root cause of crime.

        OTH, you missed the whole gag.

        • It was either extreme sarcasm or a leftist trying to blame those unwoke proles for being the cause of crime. Our local gun control groups fervently believe that all criminal guns are stolen from law abiding firearm owners, even though the numbers are not backed by police crime statistics.

        • “It was either extreme sarcasm or a leftist trying to blame those unwoke proles for being the cause of crime. ”

          As noted, you missed the gag.

          OTH, you have been here long enough to know where I stand. Right?

          Strych9 says ing’s sarc key is broken. I have none; reader take care.

    • Probably not much different, considering how big democrat ran cities adopted it nationwide. Chaz was a great example. Try googling how many murders/rapes there were in Chaz. The ability of the democrats to cover their tracks and disown the stuff they pushed for is amazing.

  11. Considering the riots last year, plus deblasio’s inaction against rising crime in nyc during lockdowns and police ‘reallocation’ from predominantly black areas, that number isn’t surprising.

    A part of me believes they shouldn’t count because the majority voted for that.

    I say don’t count firearm related homicides from these big cities. Then you’ll get a more accurate number and realize the 2A isn’t the problem.

  12. Surprise, when you close all the schools, put tens of millions of people out of work, demoralize and defund your police, and encourage an atmosphere of lawlessness, the result is…vastly higher crime and murder. Good job, blue cities!

  13. Actually given current events those numbers are quite low.
    If I was the prez I’d be quite happy that my country was armed. The United States of America has a free standing army and the government had no cost to supply it. Now we’ve just got to get everyone on track, trust in the We the People and trust in Our government ( bwahaha, I know)

    • Their base will be shocked at just how quickly the democrats send in the military. But that’ll never happen, because black people don’t resist or do criminal shit under a democratic president… duh. Only those anti-american terrorists who own guns legally and never contribute to the crime rate do. Just the fact that they own a gun is shocking. Anyone could be murdered. Conceal carry? Who knows how many people they are putting at risk. Oh, the babies lives are in jeopardy, but not the aborted ones, just the living ones.

      FACTS. Don’t you fact check?

      • I’ve kinda thought about that, No Police bring in the guard thing. That might not be bad , 73 bombed with joints, pullem out, pullem out ,high guardsmen oh no no no spacelord mutha fcka

  14. And what about the stats everywhere else? Rural areas…suburbs…? Did the rates increase there as well?
    Maybe there is something about cities…a common denominator… .
    Yeah…going there makes me a racist or bigot…white supremacist…right?
    So…don’t follow the SCIENCE for this one…right?

    • The common denominator was a large presence of left wing activists in democrat controlled cities. There was an uptick in violence in the northwest as well.

  15. 1. Define Gun Assault.
    2. Assuming the definition is honest, Can we chart the crime increase as it relates to police per capita changes?
    3. Can we chart cities run by Dems and Conservatives in two seperate charts?

    You get where I’m going.

  16. Man, dark jokes about here.

    That societal veneer seems to have be scratched. The question is if it continues to be. Or maybe they just go after it with anb80 grit flapper wheel?

  17. NEW WAR AND PEACE NOVEL . LOT PRO N CON INPUTS .

    ANY THING ON TRUMP WORKING UNDER COVER FOR FBI AND CIA . USING GATHERINGS
    TO FLUSH / BRING PEOPLE OUT TO RIOT , SO FBI AMD CIA CAN GO AFTER THEM .
    TRUTH OR RUMORS , OR JUST BS TALK . ? ?

  18. As always, I’m curious to know how many of those gun crimes were committed by people who legally owned their firearms.

    and by “legally owned” I mean by the standards of owner ship as they were in 1920! My guess…not very many.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here