FBI Data Guts the ‘More Guns, More Crime’ Myth

For decades, the gun control lobby has run on one core claim: put more guns in private hands and violent crime goes up. New numbers from the FBI say the opposite, and gun rights groups are making sure nobody misses it.

The Numbers

Earlier this month, the FBI reported an estimated 18.1 percent drop in murder and non-negligent manslaughter from 2024 to 2025. Robberies fell an estimated 18.5 percent. Aggravated assault dropped 7.2 percent, and rape offenses declined an estimated 7.6 percent.

The headline figure is the one the FBI put in its own release. The agency said these numbers “marked the largest year-to-year decline in violent crime rates since FBI estimations began in 1936.” The 2025 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest on record. Property crime and hate crime also declined in 2025, per the FBI.

Guns Went Up, Crime Went Down

The Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms says the data has undone the “more guns = more crime” argument that anti-gun groups have leaned on for years.

“Yet here we are, following years of steady firearms sales, resulting in expanded gun ownership, and violent crime has plummeted,” said CCRKBA Chairman Alan Gottlieb. “This isn’t us talking, it’s the FBI.”

Gottlieb pointed to the scale of American gun ownership as the backdrop for the crime drop. Annual gun sales have run in the millions, according to firearms industry data he cited. The most recent estimate on licensed concealed carry across the country tops 20 million. Twenty-nine states have adopted Constitutional carry, letting citizens carry without a license or permit. And Supreme Court rulings, Gottlieb noted, have been restoring the Second Amendment “as the cornerstone of our Bill of Rights.”

That combination — more guns, more carry, fewer restrictions — should have produced a bloodbath under the prohibitionist theory. It didn’t.

“Not surprisingly,” Gottlieb said, “the media has failed to report this part of the story.”

Silence From the Other Side

The National Rifle Association made a similar point, framing the report as good news that the opposition can’t bring itself to acknowledge.

“These numbers are clearly worth celebrating,” the NRA said in a statement. “Unless, of course, you are an anti-gun extremist who relies on exploiting violent crime to promote your attacks on the Second Amendment.”

The organization noted the quiet that followed the report. “A week after the release of the FBI report, none of the major anti-gun organizations appear to have anything to say about what any rational individual would call either great news or at least a major story in public safety,” the NRA said.

Gottlieb didn’t spare the funding behind the movement. The “billionaire-backed gun ban bunch is essentially running on empty,” he said, arguing they will spin statistics, keep blaming guns instead of criminals, and keep pushing restrictions on honest citizens while a catch-and-release justice system puts repeat offenders back on the street.

“The FBI data just let the air out of their tires,” Gottlieb said. “It’s time for them to start walking.”

Where to Find It

The full analysis lives on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer. Alongside the traditional data tables, the agency unveiled RCN Online — dashboards covering 2025 annual violent and property crime trends and other high-interest data.