A few months ago, in face-to-face conversations, I made a little prediction. Sadly, if I ever put it in writing somewhere, I can’t find it now. (ETA: Ah ha! I did document that prediction.)
As I watched and reported on the New Zealand firearm “buyback,” I noted the low rates of compliance, based on NZ government estimates of the number of firearms affected.
MP Brett Hudson estimated the number at 240,000, based on information from the NZ Police, an estimate that Deputy Commissioner Mike Clement did not dispute in a committee hearing in September (which is why I was using the figure for my compliance estimates).
I predicted that the New Zealand government, faced with very limited compliance, would, at the end of the amnesty period (that was today), suddenly revise the estimate sharply downward and declare success.
I wish I’d put that in writing because . . .
After mosque shootings, New Zealand’s gun buyback runs into an obstacle: gun owners
But a government-commissioned assessment by the KPMG professional services firm estimated that the number of banned guns could be between 50,000 and 170,000. …
Officials are hailing the policy as a success. “I just do not believe there’s 170,000. I believe we’ve got the majority of these guns in,” Police Minister Stuart Nash told New Zealand’s national broadcaster on Tuesday.
Nash would be the minister of the same police which gave MP Hudson those much greater numbers earlier. He knows better. I nailed it.
Just for giggles and grins, let’s pretend Nash is now correct, and they actually collected most of those firearms. New Zealand is now a safe space, an almost gun-free paradise for a disarmed populace. Except . . .
What is the one class we know did not turn in their guns?
That’s right. If Police Minister Nash is to be believed, the government has turned the country into a safe workplace for the criminal gangs who inexplicably declined to participate in the “buyback.”
But it’s all garbage. We know Nash is spinning this utter failure like a top, and everyone else is putting the low end of the affected firearms at over 170,000 (again, it’s probably 240,000). They collected 46,750 firearms.
- 170,000: 27.5% compliance
- 240,000: 19.5% compliance
Even in Cat-E “Military-Style Semi-Automatic” firearms — registered firearms — compliance was a piddly 44.9%. Less than half of registered owners of registered MSSAs surrendered their weapons.
I suspect the 2020 New Zealand general election is going to be nearly exciting as the one here in the United States.
Travis Poulson, 38, a hunting enthusiast from Auckland, said there was resentment toward the police.
You don’t say. So much for the once obligatory quotes from the police about how enthusiastic gun owners were about the confiscation.
