An extraordinary shot by a Colorado deputy during a gunfight is being described as a “one in a billion” shot. The shot is extraordinary, but the odds are much better than that.
It’s fairly common in a gunfight to get hit in the gun arm or gun hand. Or for their firearm to be hit. The gun is usually out front facing the person firing back. People tend to equate the gun with the threat, so they tend to focus on the gun. Where the eyes look, the bullets tend to go.
Deputy Jose Ramon Marquez told investigators about a Jan. 26 shooting in which two masked men attacked him. … In an exchange of gunfire that left him seriously wounded, Marquez hit one suspect in the leg, and another of his .45-caliber bullets made a “one in a billion” shot, according to a letter (deputy district attorney Rich) Orman wrote to Jefferson County Sheriff Jeff Shrader and Aurora Police Chief Nick Metz.
That round traveled up the barrel of the attacker’s gun, colliding with a cartridge in the chamber and rendering the .40-caliber pistol inoperable, the letter said.
Let’s do some math and calculate the odds. If the barrel is facing the threat, the bullet has to hit the barrel fairly close to its center axis for it or a significant fragment to travel down the bore. A reasonable assumption would be that the center of the bullet would have to hit within .1 inches of the bore axis.
It’s reasonable to believe that an average person would be able to keep his shots within a four foot square at pistol fighting distances. An expert should do much better. If you’re in the top 1%, I’d expect you to keep them with in one foot square, even during the stress of a gunfight. But everyone can’t be in that top 1%. A 48″x48″ target area gives us a bit less than a quarter million .1 x .1 inch square impact areas.
That makes the odds of the shot Deputy Marquez pulled off about a quarter million to one. If you’re one of those top 1% shooters, those odds drop to about 15,000 to one. But that would presume that you’d be aiming for the gun. An expert usually aims for the heart or the spine. Those targets are much more likely to stop an assailant with a gun from pulling the trigger.
In any case, nice shootin’, Deputy Marquez.
©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.