Despite the so-called “Trump slump” gun sales have remained strong since the 45th president was inaugurated. Through the end of May, 2018 is on pace to be the second highest sales year on record.
NICS checks through May of 2018 are 97% of those of 2016 when sales were high in expectation of a Clinton presidency. Political and gun industry writers — and those who are both — have speculated that politics have been the major driver of guns sales for the last decade. But the latest Rassmussen poll shows evidence of a deeper reason people are appreciating the need for armed self defense.
Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters say it’s likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, with 11% who say it’s Very Likely. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% consider a second civil war unlikely, but that includes only 29% who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Democrats (37%) are more fearful than Republicans (32%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (26%) that a second civil war is at hand.
But 59% of all voters are concerned that those opposed to President Trump’s policies will resort to violence, with 33% who are Very Concerned. This compares to 53% and 28% respectively in the spring of Obama’s second year in office. Thirty-seven percent (37%) don’t share that concern, including 16% who are Not At All Concerned.
If you’re concerned that a second civil war in the United States is a possibility, you would want to have the ability to defend yourself and your family. And many of those in power who see a trend like that may want to limit that ability.
Most constitutionalists, Second Amendment supporters, and Trump supporters (with lots of overlap there) already see the sometimes violent opposition of leftists, progressives, or socialists — take your pick of titles there — to civilian gun ownership. On the other hand, many Clinton and Sanders supporters now see a significant reason to be armed themselves.
The Rassmussen poll shows 37% of Democrats are fearful, while only 32% of Republicans say they are. The smallest number of those who are concerned is Independents at 28%.
Thirty-one percent of the electorate is a huge number to admit that they think civil war is either likely or very likely. I don’t count my self among that number.
But the possibility of armed conflict in the United States is still a reality. An interesting article at medium.com puts the chances of violence in the US during any lifetime at 37%.
Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.
The U.S. has been one of the most politically stable places on the planet. The chances of conflict are higher almost anywhere else in the world. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen here. And if you’re one of those who believe civil war is likely within the next five years, why wouldn’t you want to own an AR-15, a pistol or two, and plenty of ammunition?
©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.