There’s no shortage of doom and gloom to be found online. Every election year since at least 2008, there have been people who stoke fear of a coming civil war. Obama was going to take everything over, enact martial law and kick off the apocalypse. Again, in 2012, we were told that unless Mitt Romney won, Obama would kick his plans for tyranny into high gear because he wasn’t facing another election. Again, in 2016, similar predictions were made about both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. It got to the point where predictions of election-related civil war lost all credibility and even became cliche.
But, 2020 was a whole different animal. We actually had some pretty apocalyptic scenes that probably were a low-level form of civil war. COVID lockdowns, race riots, burning down police stations, the possibly related closure of a Chinese consulate and even a communist “autonomous zone” all came and thankfully went. Then, we had a disputed election with its own unprecedented riot that as a country we’re still talking about and arguing over to this day.
Given the radical departure from the norm that 2020 presented, we’re pretty well into uncharted waters, and it’s hard to say who’s making crazy predictions and who’s being reasonable in 2024.
But, earlier this month, Ian Bremmer, a mainstream-respected analyst waded into civil war prediction territory, showing us that this idea has gone from the fringes right into something a serious political scientist would discuss on TV:
In the video, Bremmer explains why he thinks “The U.S. vs. Itself” is the No. 1 risk of 2024. In short, the United States has a very strong military and a very strong economy, but the political system is at a crisis point where it cannot ensure a peaceful transition of power. Worse, whatever transfer of power does occur, he says it seems unlikely that even a bare majority of people would think the winner was a legitimate one in 2024.
He gives several reasons for this crisis of stability and legitimacy this election year.
Long before the winner (or the stealer) gets into office in early 2025, the cloud of uncertainty would hang over the globe. He rightly recognizes that once Trump appears to have the nomination cinched (that has basically happened since he was interviewed), he would become a major political player despite not being in office yet. Having a sort of shadow president during a time of weak leadership would generate a lot of uncertainty and strife earlier than most experts predict.
We’ve gotten to the point where instead of having a unifying set of facts and differing opinions, we have segments of the population that can’t even agree on the facts anymore, and everyone (including the people scrolling down to the comments to tell us how right they are about their favorite pet issue) thinks their set is the one true set, and that all other sets are not only wrong, but dangerous.
Another element that makes the 2024 election and transfer of power particularly dangerous is that people on both sides fear legal persecution or imprisonment if they lose. That fear and desperation can drive people in both campaigns to do things they otherwise would not do. Larger efforts to steal the election, spread misinformation and convince the public that the system is illegitimate would all be on the table.
Worse, nobody is both willing and able to fix the crisis. He points out that Biden has had years to inspire legitimacy of the system, and has obviously failed at doing that (it has only gotten worse). Trump thrives on uncertainty, so he’s not about to tell people that they should trust an election in which Biden is the apparent winner (rightfully or otherwise).
So, the bottom line is that this problem will not go away.
It’s Time For Us To Get Real About This, Too
If serious experts with reputations to uphold and businesses to run are now warning of the danger of domestic conflict, then it’s time we get serious about discussing this problem, too. After all, we’re the ones with most of the guns in such a conflict, right?
Let’s start with a dose of realism, and point out that Red Dawn was fiction. I loved that film as much as anybody, but fantasies about running into the hills and fighting off Joe Biden’s fighter jets are not worthy of further discussion. Civil conflicts have not resembled nation state vs nation state warfare for almost a century. Instead, we’re more likely to see John Robb’s “Bazaar of Violence”, which looks a lot like Mexico.
In other words, expect a diminished and disrespected government to result in something that looks a lot more like a crime wave than a civil war. The talking heads will still talk about elections, congress and the courts while the reality on the ground becomes increasingly disconnected from the politics. With the narcissism most politicians display, we can expect them to resort to increasingly desperate and extreme measures to try to appear relevant and maintain control.
Whether it’s the failed state or your most idiotic neighbors, people are going to try to bait you into doing dumb stuff as the bazaar of violence emerges. Even people who agree with you (in or out of the failed government) want others to do violence on their behalf, while people who disagree with you want you to do something stupid to excuse revenge or crimes, depending on how desperate and/or political they are.
My biggest recommendation in such an environment is to have a lot of self control and restraint. Whatever is happening, take a deep breath before you bring a gun into it. Letting other people push your buttons means you’re their robot, their radio-controlled flying monkey. Don’t let people use you like that.
The best way to stay in control is to be mentally and spiritually well, and I’m not talking about megachurch religion or holier-than-thou checklist morality. I’m talking about having some inner peace, being able to pray or meditate, or even doing something as simple as box breathing to stay sane in an insane world and make better decisions.