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Valley Guns (courtesy facebook.com)From Valley Guns‘ Facebook page:

Attention F.B. fans: To follow will be several IMPORTANT Info updates about the status of the gun industry currently, followed by an INVENTORY UPDATE: We traveled to Texas for Industry meetings concerning the shortages, and here’s what we were told.

Smith & Wesson: Running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day, mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.

RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1.

Remington – Maxed out!

Armalite: Maxed out.

DPMS: Can’t get enough parts to produce any more product.

COLT: Production runs increasing weekly…bottle necked by Bolt carrier’s.

LWRC: Making only black guns, running at full capacity …can’t get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand, but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags. Do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS:

ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra’s for reloading purposes. It could be 6-9 months b/f things get caught up. ….

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128 COMMENTS

    • No kidding, I actually bought a bow and have started shooting archery a couple times a week. It’s actually a lot of fun but I’d like to be able to shoot sometime in the next year.

      • Just make sure you can only shoot one pellet per pull. No one needs an assault slingshot. They are antique weapons of war.

        • If it’s black it’s an assault sling shot. If it is black and has a sight it’s a super assault slingshot.

    • I heard that Sig had stopped producing some variants of their pistol lines (like the Mk25 P226) in order to produce more rifles.

    • Give the Sig Pro Shop a call. 603-418-8100. They are getting batches of rifles in from the factory down the street every few days. I know that they do out of state transfers via local FFLs. I assume that you can purchase over the phone, but don’t know it for a fact. Right now, they are generally seeing the M400 and 716s, but you might get lucky with something else. One note – prices on rifles are now full MSRP given the demand, so be prepared for sticker shock.

      • Billions of rounds made domestically. They also import billions more. Production world wide of Ammo for American market could easily hit 1 billion rounds per week if you add all the companies together. Truthfully I really doubt the military and law enforcement buy as much as civilians do, so hopefully this shortage won’t be long… As long as Obama doesn’t invade North Korea in the next few months we might see 9mm and .223 on the shelves again before the 4th of July

        • I read a tin-hatter last night contending that the government, knowing it will never get the guns, has decided to buy up all the ammo….

  6. Quote, under AMMO: “Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line.”

    It would be a NO-BRAINER for the ammo manufacturers to:

    Civilians FIRST, followed by whatever….

    If states like NY and the other gun grabber legislation states found out that they were LAST in line…

    Hmmm….

    • They would indeed be brainless to put civilian buyers first – I mean for no upside whatsoever they could piss off their biggest single client (gov), and also open themselves up to accusations that they are making the lives of our brave lads out killing brown people harder.

      Why would they ever do that?

        • I only wish I had put as much thought into how many ‘m’s are in my screen name as you have.

          That aside, would it really kill you to admit that I’m right and that the idea that ammo makers should hold back on government orders to provide more to preppers and hoarders is retarded?

      • If gov’t did come last, perhaps they would be more careful when they take a shot, like the 50+ rounds the LAPD spent today shooting up a truck with 2 women delivering newspapers.

    • Took the words right out of my mouth – Meatloaf

      1) Ammo distributors know what the military normally buys and should keep feeding their normal volume, but not a round more. 2) As for LE, don’t sell to those states or localities that the ‘brass’ has supported gun restrictions. Same rule applies, normal volumes for all other departments. Not a round more.

      Makes sense to me.

      • That’s a very nice sense of self-entitlement you have there. Tell me, will you be volunteering to explain to the war widows why their husbands died for want of ammunition so you can plink a bit?

        • Bring the boys home and then no explanations will be necessary.

          BTW, hmmjob, I’m sure that the widows and orphans are cheered by your concern. And welcome back. I’m glad that McDonalds gave you some time off. Washing floors can be soooo taxing.

        • That was a rather pathetic dig even by your standards Ralph – I hope this isn’t an early sign of Alzheimer’s or dementia in your old age?

          As for bringing the boys home, I totally agree. They never should have been deployed in the first place.

        • Hey Ralph… can we try to be a little nicer? H8m is NOT a floor scrubber at McDonald’s and his profession deserves respect. Afterall, being the spunk-mopper at the local XXX shop at least requires a hazmat certification… and it’s hard work! Have you ever tried to scrub a dried load off of a window pane? I mean I haven’t… but I can imagine that that stuff gets REALLY stuck on there… plus it explains the long hours. He *loves* his job…

        • Please Ralph! A little respect for the man’s actual profession would go a long way. Not everyone is an attorney. Why so mean?

          Afterall, being a g*zz mopper at the local p0rno shop is tough work… and at least he’s HAZMAT certified! I imagine it is a real chore to scrub all of those dried l0ads off of the glass… that stuff probably gets REALLY stuck on there! It takes a ton of elbow lub… ahem… grease to get it all off! In fact (snicker) I bet there’s not a soul on TTAG that puts more of their work into themselves… I mean more of themselves into their work… than Hmmmmm!

        • Sorry for the dual post. The initial one I think was too racey and didn’t post at first so I softened it up a bit 🙂

      • The federal government buys on a demand contract–they set a max limit of rounds they will buy in a period, and the manufacturer agrees to produce that number of rounds the government asks for when it asks for them. For example, the government will specify ten billion rounds to be purchased over x number of years, and then orders lots against that limit as needed. It has the effect of locking up capacity as the manufacturer has to be able to respond to orders as they come in or be in breach.

    • All business prioritize there biggest customers first followed by the mid-size and in the end there smaller ones. Well in Guns and Ammo the Military is the big dog. Followed by Law enforcement and my 100 boxes of ammo a year is on the bottom.

      Thanks
      Robert

      PS. I never count how many boxes I buy and 100 boxes is a made up number.

      • Taken together, civvies are way more important than LE as customers. And probably more profitable, too, since LE expects big discounts.

        I suspect the military has contracts with a lot of the ammo makers to get first call, but with Iraq over and Afstan winding down, I would think that military is taking a lot less than they were 5 years ago.

      • This. Remember the discussion the other day wherein Chicago, with a pretty sizeable PD, buys a mere 100,000 rounds a year. If the industry is running off 1 billion rounds/week, then the only explanation for law enforcement coming ahead of civilians is that there are contracts to fulfill.

        And yes, it’s asinine to suggest shorting the military when troops are in the field. They aren’t the ones plotting against the Bill of Rights.

    • I was hoping the range would be slow last Sunday since the ammo shelves have been empty for a long time, but it was one of the most crowded days I’ve seen. (Central Texas)

    • Acurr81, I bought a pellet rifle during the ammo drought of 08 and a pellet trap. I’m looking at pellet pistols now. Cheap, available and keeps my skills from degrading.

    • I also pulled out my old pellet rifle. Forgot how fun it was to shoot it. With pellets at around $5 for a few hundred it can’t be beat and I can shoot on my property without issue. My other rifles and pistols may need to sit quiet for a while but I can still work on my control.

    • Gamo Whisper owner checking in. The ammo shortage has me looking at the various home-gunsmithing mods to smooth out the trigger, tune up the action, etc.

  10. Looks like what shooting I will be doing over the next year will be mostly .22LR. I’m “down” to about 6,000 rounds of that. I hope availability of .22LR picks up soon.

  11. The one billion rounds a week number for ammo production can’t be right? That number means 1000 rounds for 1,000,000 people every week…..

    • Except the military takes a huge chunk of that. And then factor in LE agencies who didnt stock up and are now buying more than they usually would because they are low.

    • How much did homeland security recently buy. Granted the contract was for 5 years but nothing stops them from buy a large percentage of that up front. Also that is all AMMO types. That includes 22lr and 30/30 in that number and some types of ammo is easier to get then others. The biggest problems is the 22lr and the .223/5.56 and how hard those are to get.

      Thanks
      Robert

  12. Time to wait for supply to outstrip demand… and then maybe some decent prices.

    Until then, I guess I’ll be visiting the range a bit more sparingly…

  13. Perhaps if people stopped buy things they didn’t want or need before this nonsense started everything will go back to normal…

  14. “MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags. Do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.”

    I just got a hold of 15 brand new Magpuls pmag 30. The only problem is that none of them seem to fit into my Winchester ’94 lever-action which is my only long gun.

      • I love it. Chris Dumm actually spotted it when we were at a used gun store. The model is the Trails End version in 357 and made in 2004 at the Connecticut factory.

    • It helps to know retail store delivery schedules and to be on a first name basis with the staff. If you can’t be at a store on delivery days and times perhaps another person can do it for you. The gun department manager of a certain local retail store gets a printout of what is (hopefully) on the next day’s delivery truck. If it something we need, I show up there next morning when they open the doors. Last Friday, I was able to buy 170 rounds of Remington UMC .223 ammo for $76 (I don’t own a .223 gun) and turned it over to Chris Dumm.

  15. Reloaders are fucked… thats nice. I have 100 primers left to my name…

    Pissed doesn’t even begin to describe how I feel right now…

    • I’m shopping for a insulated fireproof locker to go in the garage right now, and when reloading components are available again, I’m going to stockpile the fsck out of that stuff.

      On the other hand, I’m kinda glad I didn’t drop the cash on that reloading setup in December as I’d planned. Heck, a few more months and I might be able to pick up something at fire-sale prices from somebody tired of waiting for primers and powder. Silver lining and all that.

    • Boy, I feel lucky. I saw the writing on the wall and bought as much ammo, bullets,brass,primers and powder as I could. I have about 20,000 primers and enough components to keep me busy reloading for the rest of my life. I’m 66 yrs young, so it may not be too long. Hopefully we won’t need them, but it is always better to have more than you need than not enough. Good luck. PDXTom

  17. What does “100%” capacity even mean? Buy the empty factory next to you and start cranking that sh@t out!

    Winchester said at SHOT that they had been at “100%” capacity since 2008! Do they have something against putting more Americans to work?

    • You’re assuming that there is an empty factory next door that has all the machinery needed. 100% capacity means that they don’t have any more machinery to make what they want to make. Manufacturing capability doesn’t exist from dreams and wishes.

    • In the manufacturing world that’s a really bad move, particularly if said manufacturer works in a politically volatile vertical. Also, remember that a lot of this stuff is imported (FN, for example), and that puts supply at the mercy of at least one other economy.

      • Thanks to Wal-Mart culture, where price (and therefore costs) is all that matters. “Race to the bottom” happens in virtually every product category that Wal-Mart touches, and you end up with a minimally-functional, near-disposable product that looks kinda OK and sells for less than the better versions available elsewhere.

    • There’s a lot of equipment, and a lot of skilled labor recruitment & training involved before they can produce the first extra round. The reality is this may be a bubble (somewhat prolonged, but a bubble none the less). Once people get restocked and a surplus, who’s going to buy all the additional ammo they can crank out? The war is winding down, the government is going broke, so I would have a hard time building a bigger ammo plant that might go idle again about the time it is ready to begin full scale operations.

  18. Kind of seems like we have succeeded in disarming ourselves. Nine months more of these shortages is a long time. My sympathies to those who got re-loading equipment and cannot use it and to those who bought their first gun and have hardly been able to shoot it. Some Ranges are selling ammo to range users only, so if you’re unable to buy ammo you might check your local range(s) to see if they have your caliber available…at least you can get some practice in and get to “know” your gun.

  19. This production shortage bothers me for another reason. Sure, I’m unhappy with the availability and price of ammo, but what if a large shooting match breaks out somewhere in the rest of the world?

    Sure, the military is first in line, and I’m sure they have ammo reserves, but are we, as a nation, really that unprepared for the worst?

    Let’s not forget, if we were to get involved in a large protracted war, we would not only need ammo – we need tanks and guns with which to shoot that ammo.

    This shortage is a HUGE sign to our potential enemies that we are woefully lacking manufacturing capacity.

    But hey, If we need to fight China, maybe we can ask them nicely to make our guns for us?

    • The military has extensive munitions stockpiles… they’re just not available for purchase by civilians. Those would supposedly give us enough time to ramp up production for extended wartime needs.

    • In a large protracted war, every manufacturer starts making weapons. Kodak was making rifles in WW2. They are not making rifles now.

      Our ability to produce weapons and ammo during a major war is vastly greater than during peace time.

      • Frankly, I’m more worried about our ability to manufacture high-tech products in time of war. 90% of the world’s supply of “rare earths” comes from China, though we’re starting to ramp up one (one!) operation here in the US now that supply is constrained and prices are up.

        At least we still have enough steel-forging capacity for “small” forgings that we could preempt consumer demand and make steel-based war materiel ourselves. We’ve long since lost the capacity for large forgings since we barge-shipped the infrastructure to Asia in 70’s and 80’s. We no longer have the capacity to domestically manufacture stainless-steel pressure vessels for megawatt-range nuclear reactors, for example.

        • If the USA ever went to full wartime production again as it did in WWII I doubt we would have enough people working in the factories.

  20. What’s SIG doing? I want a Sig 556R, dammit, but I’m not willing to pay $2000 for it on Gunbroker. My FFL just laughed at me when asked about ordering one.

    • Check their Facebook page. This seems to be a long-term gun shop in WV that has a habit of putting out status updates 2-3 times a week in the current climate with stock updates and expected delivery dates. I don’t think they’re making it up.

      • I spoke with the owner or a manager at Keiths probably the biggest gun store in my area though I’ve never been there. The man informed me that CZ (he had just returned from a buyers meeting with CZ) and most gun makers will be spending 2013 filling back-orders for guns that are already sold. He sounded depressed about the whole thing.

    • It’s not. I swing by VG2 on a somewhat routine basis (every couple of weeks or so). As compared to prior years, I’m utterly amazed at how stripped out these guys are. Stock comes in and goes out the very same day – often with in hours. We live in interesting days, that’s for sure.

  22. Ugh, the incredible thing is that literally everything is out, even the odd ball calibers, like .32ACP. Now, I have one 50 round box of CCI blazer FMJ that I haven’t gotten to use do to the logistical difficulties of getting my gun to a range. (I don’t have a car, so I can’t drive)Now, I managed to get to the range and shoot once, in the immediate aftermath of Sandy Hook. I used a rented 9mm, so I’ve never actually fired my gun. It’s spent the last six months sitting forlornly in my safe, unloaded next to the full box of ammo.

    That said, this is a great example of capitalism in action. (IE mass panic sends off buying frenzy, leading to price increases, and production capacity increases as the market tries to find a new level.) Sure, it sucks that I may not be able to fire more than fifty rounds for the next year or so, but realistically I know that my .32ACP is way down on the production list. (Anyone know to apply cosmoline?)

    No, the ammo companies can’t afford not to put the government first. They know that they could lose the civilian market easily, and there is way too much capacity in the industry to solely cover the government. If you publicly announce that civilians get priority, I’m sure the ATF would put you on some harassment list.

    Still, time wise I got into this hobby at an odd time, and I’m kicking myself for not actively seeking more ammo August, and September, when I first got my gun. Life is just plain weird gun wise right now. (I’ve even been waiting two weeks for the ATF to even charge my debit card for my C&R application.(All the while hoping and praying that something with enough information for someone to open a credit card in my name didn’t get lost in the mail))

      • That’s if I ever get it. (Seriously, if it’s been two weeks since it got to Atlanta, (Sent on the 19th, should have arrived on the 22nd or so) I hate to see how long it’s going to take once it gets to the examiner. (Illinois has it’s own examiner, but since we just got SBR for people with C&R, I imagine she is going to be seriously overworked, even without the Sandy Hook madness.) It normally takes five to seven days for ATF to charge someone’s card, and to send the form to Martinsburg.

        Once they actually charge my card, I can stop worrying about something with my social, last three addresses, and debit card number potentially being lost in the mail, and worry about more important things. (Like that age old question, Walther P1 or CZ82 :))

      • Two Mosins and a Mauser over here (among other things). I can still reload for them too. So I feel less guilty getting my WWII battle rifle pimp on since I can police my brass easily, obtain large rifle primers, H4895 and .312 & .323 projectiles for them. For now.
        <__>

    • They will never lose the civilian market, no matter what they do. You need them; where else would you get your ammo? If if you have a response to that, how’s that going for you now?

  23. I got a hint of all of this back in October. Just so happened that on the last weekend in October my LGS had an anniversary sale. They had the Sig 516 on sale for $1099 – I jumped on it, along with a bunch of Magpul window mags, a Nikon Monarch mildot scope, tactical rings and Harris bipod :). Total cost was about the normal retail of just the rifle!

  24. There is a legal answer here under gov’t procurement law.

    I suspect the ammo manufacturers have IDIQ contracts with the US Military (indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity) so they get what they need, as much as they need. Also, be advised that a lot of contracts with the military are “rated” under the Defense Priorities Allocations System (DPAS)Program: (http://www.bis.doc.gov/dpas/default.htm), which rating simply put means that supplies for the “war effort” go to the military/national defense first. Since we have been at “war” for the last 11+ yrs, then the ammo manufacturers are legally required to supply the military first. Otherwise, technically, they could be taken over by the gov’t and forced to direct all production towards the “war” effort. Yes, it is legal. I suppose the contracts with the rest of the USG (ie, dept of homeland security) are really subcontracts from the military to the other executive departments so they can take advantage of the ammo contract ratings (although DHS can use its own DPAS authority). Yes, it is legal, and it is common for “group purchase” discounts.

  25. If anyone is around the quad city area in iowa or illinois you can get RRA rifles from quad city guns and ammo. Usually about a week and he has a few different models in shop with regular shipments. Doesnt help out with the ammo problem but thought someone might like to know.

  27. Wait, so if military ammo comes first, law enforcement second and civilian third, what’s the deal with all of the “police are running low on ammo” BS stories?

    Obviously the stories could be BS media hype to make gun owners look bad for taking ammo away from the cops, or….

    (adjusts tin foil hat)

    could it be that since the military is only one with priority for ammo over the police that the military is stocking up on ammo more now than ever before and for some unknown reasons?

    • What about Homeland Security buying up all that ammo? They would obviously get priority over civilians (and probably LEOs.)

      Are they buying it up to provide for military or LEO shortages? Are they buying it up because they are going to institute some National Police Force? or are they buying them up to keep them out of OUR hands?

    • States require regular (typically twice a year, more for special teams) qualification. You think they are walking to the paper targets and punching holes in them with pens where they think their rounds would have gone?

  28. I went in to a local gun store the other day to get an ASAP plate for my AR. It was a bit expensive but out the door cost me what I would have paid for overnight shipping from Midway. On my way out I noticed they had .40 in stock from a local reloading company, at $35 for a box of 50. I will never do business there again. No one else in the area is selling the same ammo for that much.

    Two days ago I did get my hands on three brand new (in the package) Gen II Maglevel Pmags for $20 each so that made me happy.

  29. I knew I should have bought that box of primers last month. As for ammo, too much is not enough, but my levels are comfortable enough. Thinking about getting a 30-30, and I’ve seen a fair amount of ammo around town for it.

  30. And let us all take away an important lesson from the last two months. When (we hope) supply once more catches up with demand, and ammo/gun prices get back to a reasonable level, remember what it was like trying to find supplies when the SHTF. Stock up – don’t let your supplies get back down to a “I’ll just buy it the day before I plan a range session” level. Ammo and reloading components don’t “go bad” if you store them in a dry, reasonably cool (below 120 degrees) environment. Budget enough every month to build up what the anti-gun twits refer to as “a veritable arsenal”.

    OFWG lecture of the day /ends/.

    • +1
      I have ~ 7000 rounds of .22lr, and 1000 rounds of 9mm.
      The last few years I have been shooting alot. Trying to improve my handgun skills. since I got my CCW.
      Shot ~ 300 22lr. and ~ 45 rounds of 9mm a week.
      So at that rate I had/have about half a years supply.
      I have not been shooting since 1/5/13. This is killing me!
      So when things slack off, and ammo and prices seem to get back to 2012 levels if they ever do?
      I will really stock up.

      Guy22

  31. Poor Nick no primers for him to reload darn for me either. Instead of this dumb panic buying lets do what they did in Illinois and call email march and kill the bans instead.

  32. Sigh. Just checked Midway.com to look at one of my “watched” items that was due in today, and… it’s still showing a due date of today, no backorder, no stock.

  33. Thanks for posting this. I’ve been searching for specifics like these.

    A recent issue of Small Arms Review features C-Products, a magazine company with thirty employees. Their production capacity is said to be 125,000 mags per week. I wonder how many Magpul and the other companies can produce per week.

  34. I used to be a JIT (Just In Time) guy, meaning, stop at Farm&Fleet for some 9 and .22 on my way to shoot, leaving a couple hundred rounds at home. I think the shelf shortage is still due to us guys saying “never again” and trying to fill our buckets. The gun nut’s that had 2K rounds stocked up, now want 5K.
    I could use 100rnds of 556 and that would more than double my current stash.
    At a box a week or less it may take a while to fill our bucket but when it is filled the supply chain will overshoot and maybe we will see 556 at 20 cents a round.

    Why not dream the dream if you don’t have anything to shoot. Nothn’ better to do.

  35. I stopped by Valley Guns one day, but unfortunately was unable to shop there due to the no guns sign on the front door.

    I guess they support the 2A but…

  37. I’ve noticed that 10mm is decently stocked in most places online and locally. Looks like I need to start thinking about getting a Glock 20…

  38. I’m done investing in the stock market and my 401k… From the moment ammo prices get back to normal, I’m going to just invest all my money in ammo!!!

  39. Wow!!! 1 billion rounds a week! 5 million background checks for gun purchases in less than 3 months. “We the people” seem to be on a historically significant buying spree. Is that an Elephant I see in the room? 🙂

  41. So basically this is a hidden plan to fuel economic spending? It seems to be working? Too bad they don’t threaten a car ban. Can you imagine how fast those cars would fly off the dealer lots?

  42. Is it just me or does that S&W report seem a bit off? I can’t believe they haven’t devoted a significant share of capacity to also making M&P-15’s? Also, if most of their production capacity is devoted to making M&P pistols, doesn’t 300 / day seem a bit low?

  43. The ammunition numbers that people are throwing around of late sound outrageous until you do some math. Here’s something to think about –

    I’m a reserve officer in the third largest county in our state. We have about 125 sworn officers counting the full time and reserve guys. State law requires us to qualify once a year and we budget 500 rounds per officer. So our minimum ammunition requirement is 62,500 rounds per year. I’ll agree that losts of that ammo goes into our deputies’ gun safes if they can train and qualify with less than 500 rounds but we buy the rounds that we may need and issue them out.

    Some states require two qual sessions per year. A quick check of Wikipedia indicates that there are over 3100 counties in the United States. I’m going to make the assumption that about half of the states require semi annual qualifications. So we’re looking at about 4650 yearly qualification events (3100 X 1.5). Let’s assume that an average sheriff department has 50 sworn officers (lots are smaller, but others like LA county are lots bigger) and use the 500 round per deputy figure. The math says that for sheriff departments alone the ammunition requirements are 116 million rounds! Now add in all of the municipal police departments, state police agencies, federal, state and local security agencies (FBI, US Marshalls, tribal police, etc, etc, etc). Then include private armed security which must document qual sessions and special operations groups like SWAT teams which shoot far in excess of the state mandated minimums. My guess is that the yearly ammunition requirement for law enforcement and security alone is a couple of Billion rounds. There’s nothing sinister here, just lots of people who carry guns and are required to shoot every year.

    Add the civilian purchases to this and we’re looking at a segment of the market that’s driven by politics and perception. I’m not a prophet or the son of a prophet but I will say that there are people who believe that it will become increasingly difficult to get ammunition in the future. So these folks are buying everything that they can. Most of us have heard of .22LR rounds being called “currency” in some future apocalyptic scenario.

    Manufacturers don’t like to have excess capacity. The “just in time” production philosophy that our system operates under says that you make 1000 rounds because you’re going to sell 1000 rounds. You have only the machinery to make 1000 rounds, because anything else is a waste of money. When the demand ramps up to 10,000 rounds and the machinery and technology necessary to meet that demand is expensive and specialized, what do you do? Do you buy more production equipment and hire more people, knowing that the political winds may and probably will change in two or four years? Or do you hunker down, crank out as much product as you can to make money, and hope that the shortages work themselves out as they did in 2009?

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