Now that the House of Representatives has passed The Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act, it’s over to the Senate in pursuit of a 60-vote majority. “13 Democrats in the Senate in the past few years have voted for reciprocity,” Geoff PR writes in a comment, “with *25* of them up for re-election next year compared to our 9, the odds may be better than some realize, this just may happen.” Better, what with the Fix NICS addenda giving [what were once called] Blue Dog Democrats some political cover. But still, low. No?

83 COMMENTS

  1. Will the Senate pass national reciprocity?

    Probably not. I’m not even sure they’ll hold a vote on it but if they do it will give people the opportunity to identify any unknown RINOs for 2018.

    • 51/50 chance. I have a feeling Pence is going to be breaking a tie on this.

      Remember, the NICS fix is attached and that’s what the politicians want to say in their campaigns… “I VOTED TO MAKE IT HARDER FOR CRIMINALS AND MENTALLY ILL PEOPLE FROM GETTING GUNS TO SAVE THE BABIES!”

        • “If everyone is present, it takes 51 votes, or 50 votes if the vice president votes to break the tie. Under the current rules of the Senate–which can be altered by a majority vote–it takes 60 votes to proceed to a vote on a bill when some senators want to continue debate forever, or filibuster.

          It has not traditionally been the custom that every bill gets a filibuster and so requires 60 votes in order to pass; plenty of bills in the past have passed the Senate with fewer than 60 votes. In recent years, the filibuster has changed from an occasional gambit to a more routine part of the process. Since the Democrats took back the Senate after the 2006 elections, it has become almost a matter of course that a bill opposed by most of the minority party will have to overcome a filibuster in order to pass.

          But that doesn’t mean that a bill needs 60 votes to be approved; it means 41 senators can keep a bill from being voted on. The distinction is worth making, particularly since the ability of the minority to obstruct is dependent on the willingness of the majority to be obstructed.”
          From FAIR by JIM NAURECKAS

      • If the bill goes to the Senate floor, it will proceed on the basis of the 60 vote rule, so there cannot be a tie for Pence to break.

        • Technically, there could. 60 or more vote for cloture. 50 vote for the bill and 50 against. Pence votes.

    • I think maybe we (the right media and gun lobby groups) should counter attack by decrying the fix NICS bill bundled to national reciprocity.

      If the NRA loudly attacks it, maybe the liberals will think passing it is a win. Which it is a small win for them, but national reciprocity is a bigger win for us.

    • “Everything now depends on how severely the media can slander us.”

      Sarah, our side (and most of the center) no longer *cares* what the ‘media’ has to say about *anything*.

      The ‘Media’ has crapped on their own Corn Flakes so badly over the past few years, their impact on the public as a whole is *vastly* reduced from what it has been…

      • The media does play an important role, as much as i cannot take it seriously myself, the fact is it poisons the well with misinformation and complete lies, spreading fear to the public. Even as a minority scared, ignorant people violently oppose things they do not understand. I agree we need a counter attack. It doesn’t matter how ridiculous the propaganda of “Pravda” was, lots of soviet people still believed it. Fanning the flames of ignorance is dangerous.

    • “Not after new mexico.”

      In a week – 10 days, it will be under the radar.

      (It’s not nice, but it’s reality. – Buffy St.Marie, ‘Bury my heart at Wounded Knee’)

      • Yeah 2 murders and a suicide just won’t really rate with this issue. But I do expect at least one media outlet to try and connect the two.

        Still, the margin is thin and there’s always some Neo-Con A-hole like McCain that’s will side with the enemies of the people in the DNC. We have a chance to get it passed, but it’ll be thin margin at best.

    • Out of respect for the the victims, even if the killer wasn’t a lawful concealed carrier from Florida (they wouldn’t be, because gun free zone), we surely can’t even discuss national reciprocity…..

      Though maybe it will inspire them to want to fix NICs! Or worse.

  2. A majority vote for national reciprocity is certain, but I don’t see any way for the yeas to hit 60.

    Thirteen Democrats voted yes in 2013, but only seven remain in office and four of them are unlikely to vote yes this time.

    Mark Kirk, the RINO from Illinois who voted no in 2013, is gone, and Tammy Duckworth (who isn’t worth a duck or any other poultry) is far worse.

  3. I’m cautiously optimistic.

    There are a *bunch* (25) of Democrats in the Senate who are very interested in getting re-elected next fall.

    Leftists voting to ‘Strengthen background checks’ is a good way to get there.

    They get something, we get something. It’s about as classic Washington, DC politics as it gets, sports fans…

  4. It all comes down to if the Democrats decide to filibuster this. If the Democrats decide this isn’t worth a filibuster I’d say it passes easily. If the Dems decide its worth filibustering this, then I do not see any way this gets to 60 votes.

  5. “Question of the Day: Will the Senate Pass National Concealed Carry?”

    As Time magazine has “Man/person of the Year”, I really think this is the “Question of the Year”…

    One can only hope…

      • She will try to separate it off so it gets its own vote, which apparently Cornyn wants to do also. If that happens, reciprocity dies on the filibuster, but NICSfix passes for the positive press it brings.

  6. Will Claire McCaskill vote the clear will of the Missouri people? I’m guessing no. She knows she’s going to lose, whether it’s to Austin Petersen or that ladder-climbing slimeball Josh Hawley. So my guess is she goes down in flames with her beloved party.

    • Claire-bear is mine (sigh), and no, there is no way in hell she votes for it, unless she uses it to try to burnish herself since she’s up for re-election in 18, but I’m positive that ain’t gonna happen.

  7. It will pass if we help.
    Contact your Senator NOW!
    Ask him/her to support National reciprocity when it comes before the Senate.
    Leave a message, send an e-mail, or use the NRA-ILA site to send a pre-formatted letter.

    The more they hear from us, the more likely they will vote our way.

      • I see your Cantwell and Murray and raise you “Mr and Mrs America, turn them in” Feinstein and “the best looking AG” Harris.

    • I already sent letters to Senators Duckworth”Ducksnort” and Durbin from Illinois and they both wrote back basically saying “No way, Jose”…..so you can pretty much count them out.

  8. I’m going to place my imaginary bet of imaginary money on a hard “no.” It won’t even get to be filibustered. The asshats are going to just pass Fix NICS.

  9. Senator Wyden could vote for it without any trouble; he’ll be getting re-elected almost no matter what because he is fantastic at town hall meetings. But I doubt he will.

  10. 60 votes? Your going to flip A Bob Casey of PA, Manchin in W.VA, Sanders in VT. And hold on to both votes in Arizona to have a prayer.

    • I think that Manchin is a definite “no.” His anti-gun antics haven’t hurt him so far, surprising as that sounds.

  11. What is McCain going to do? Even though it would be very unpopular with his constituents to vote no, he isn’t running again and he just doesn’t care.

  12. I think N-R would not have been brought to a House vote if McConnell had not made a decision to strive to get it passed in the Senate. I have cautious optimism on this point.

    The best strategy would be for the Senate to add FixNICS to N-R as did the House and then for Conference to iron-out the remaining differences so we could get identical bills passed by both chambers.

    N-R is STRATEGIC! FixNICS is peripheral; and, the repairs need to be made in the Prohibited-Persons law. (E.g., does it make sense, or not, to deprive a citizen of his constitutional rights over a warrant for failing to pay a traffic fine? It’s a fair question and deserves an answer. Shall we let such citizens vote? Keep a firearm? The decision here has NOTHING to do with reporting and EVERYTHING to do with the Constitutionality of a facet of the Prohibited Persons law.)

    What I think we need to do is reinforce the idea with McConnell and Ryan that no RINO is safe if they fail to get a N-R bill on Trump’s desk. To be more specific: The Republican majority in each chamber turns on gun-voters being satisfied/disappointed with their performance on N-R. We WILL deprive them of their majority positions if they fail!

    McConnell has little leverage over the Democrat caucus. Yet, he must use what little he has to whip Democrat votes. If the Democrat senators up for re-election in Trump-country fail to vote FOR N-R, then gun-voters will replace them all with Republicans. If Schumer wants to keep as many of his colleagues in their seats he will see to it that enough Democrats support N-R based on the excuse that they regard FixNICS as an important “gun-control” measure.

    I don’t care if McConnell has to offer a barrel of Federal pork to every Democrat voting for N-R; he needs to get this done.

    Failing that, we gun-voters will turn-back control of the Senate from McConnell to Schumer. It’s a tough – complicated – package of arguments to sell. Nevertheless, we have to sell it to McConnell and the Republican Senators or we have to throw them out.

    • “I think N-R would not have been brought to a House vote if McConnell had not made a decision to strive to get it passed in the Senate.” – I agree with you there.

    • I. Want. To. Be. Able. To. Protect. Me. And. My. Family. I. Have. A conceal. Lic. InTx. Now. Love. In.ILlL. Have
      Been. To. The. ILlL. Police. Test. Pass. On. All. States.

  13. No. They’re just gonna ram fix NICS through. Like the communist gun grabbing rinos they are. And of course the sellout trump will sign it.

    Elections in 2017 America is just how much communism do you want forced down your throats at once.

  14. It won’t even come up for a vote. They’ll make sure to pass corporate tax cuts but won’t touch this. They know who pays them, and it’s not you and me.

  15. Have they attached the fix part of the nics background check to National reciprocity?? I’ve been kind of trying to figure this out if somebody could drop me a note in here and let me know because that fix nics background check bill is absolutely horrible and I hope they didn’t combine those two bills just to get that horrible anti-gun rhetoric passed along with the good bill the HR 38 I believe if somebody could just leave me some information whether or not they combined it or if they sent it through without it that would be a great help thank you.

    • They joined them on Tuesday and passed them on Wednesday. I haven’t seen the horrible things everyone is talking about in the Fix NICS bill. No one has pointed to any specific thing.

  16. Won’t pass. We have a few Closet Communists on the GOP side (Collins, Graham, McCain, etc.) and I doubt there are many if any hard left Communists (Democrats) who will vote for reciprocity.

    • You can call McCain all the names you want, but don’t think Commie is one. Only guy on Capital Hill who was actually tortured by communists, and, unlike Trump and his Zionist family who put their own family wealth ahead of our national interests, he really believes Putin is evil and has shown no interest in doing business with the Russians for personal gain. No, one thing McCain is not is a communist.

  17. Give them a bump stock ban also.

    Swapping national reciprocity for a bump stock ban is like swapping a fake Rolex for a real Patek Phillipe.

  18. The first step in getting anything passed in the senate that we the people want is to get rid of Mc Connel . Then get rid of the stupid, obstructionist 60 vote rule.

  19. No idea on if it will pass but you better believe that it will be voted on right before the 2018 Senate elections. Lots of Democrats running for re-election in red states and the Republicans want to make it crystal clear to the voters who is for and against freedom. Even if we don’t get the bill passed, it will most likely help us get more Democrats out of the Senate which is a very good thing, especially if we can get to the 60 Senator threshold.

  20. This is the time for the NRA to go all out for the NR bill. This is one of the most significant bills for 2nd amendment rights to hit the law books since the revolution.
    This bill assures that all lawful citizens have the right to travel to all parts of our country without local interference. This may force law enforcement to concentrate on criminal activity instead of infringing lawful activity.
    All gun owners, licensed or not, should support this passage wholeheartedly.
    Send endless emails, faxes, letters, calls, and cookies to your senators; there are only 2 for each state…..
    How hard can that be?
    Commenting on hips and ass shapes is wasting time. Gals admire you guys who pack. Believe me. Get the bill passed, then go out and get your share of good ole lovely rounded ass.
    And you gals are put on a pedestal with that carry permit.

  21. Bart, you hit the nail on the head!

    Stay laser focused on the task of PASSING National Conceal Carry Reciprocity! For me in CA it is a BIG deal; but, more importantly if CA, NY & others are told to except it nothing could be bigger for guns rights down the road!

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