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Need Another Reason to Carry? Cops Make Arrests Resulting in Convictions in Just 2% of Major Crimes

under arrest hand cuffs criminal

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Welcome to 2021. For those of you out there who have not made a resolution to pack heat every day for personal defense, here’s a fact to consider. Police make arrests in just 11% of major crimes nationwide. Here’s another factoid.  Only 2% of major crimes result in a conviction of the guilty party.

There are a host of reasons for low arrest and conviction rates. Everything from Soros-backed prosecutors arbitrarily declining to prosecute serious cases to a “no snitch” culture in some neighborhoods. Put these together and you get Chicago and its roughly 13% closure rate on homicide cases. .

The Chicago Reporter does some great investigative journalism and shares this

As Americans across the nation protest police violence, people have begun to call for cuts or changes in public spending on police. But neither these nor other proposed reforms address a key problem with solving crimes.

My recent review of 50 years of national crime data confirms that, as police report, they don’t solve most serious crimes in America. But the real statistics are worse than police data show. In the U.S. it’s rare that a crime report leads to police arresting a suspect who is then convicted of the crime.

The data show that consistently over the decades, fewer than half of serious crimes are reported to police. Few, if any arrests are made in those cases.

In reality, about 11% of all serious crimes result in an arrest, and about 2% end in a conviction. Therefore, the number of people police hold accountable for crimes – what I call the “criminal accountability” rate – is very low.

The Chicago Reporter scribe goes on to say that fully half of serious crimes aren’t even reported to police.

Police can only work on solving crimes they are aware of, and can only report statistics about their work based on criminal behavior they know about. But there is a huge slice of crime police never find out about.

By comparing surveys of the public with police reports, it’s clear that less than half of serious violent felonies – crimes like aggravated assault and burglary – ever get reported to the police.

A whole lot of people think that police deter serious violent crime. In a sense they do, however law enforcement’s primary job consists of acting as armed historians. Figuring out what happened after the fact.

Ultimately, the person who is most likely to save you and your family from violent attack is the person looking back at you in the mirror in the morning, not someone in uniform. Concealed carry can save your life, especially in this time when fewer arrests, fewer arrestees held in lieu of posting meaningful bail, and prosecutors are turning a blind eye to charging all but the most egregious cases.

Pack your gun everywhere you legally can. Take the advice from the old American Express commercials; don’t leave home without it.

comments

  1. avatar Dennis Sumner says:

    Nope! Dont need any more reason.

    1. avatar Darkman says:

      Like all my other Rights. I’ve never “Needed a Reason” to exercise them.

      1. avatar Sam I Am says:

        “Like all my other Rights. I’ve never “Needed a Reason” to exercise them.”

        I say, I say son, if you go around just exercising your Rights for no reason…that’s a whole lotta exercising going on there.

        1. avatar Montana Actual says:

          Keeps us healthy.

        2. avatar Marcus Aurelius Tarkus says:

          And helps to keep the foxes out of the henhouses, Foghorn.

        3. avatar Sam I Am says:

          “And helps to keep the foxes out of the henhouses, Foghorn.”

          For-I say fortunately, I always carry a spare set of feathers

  2. avatar Count Dracula says:

    Who’s looking back at me in the mirror?

    1. avatar Just Sayin(OG) says:

      THAT made me snort!
      Thank you for that excellent humor experience.
      I really appreciate it.

    2. avatar eagle10 says:

      Who’s on first.

      1. avatar Ed Schrade says:

        I thought who was on second ?

      2. avatar Sam I Am says:

        “Who’s on first.”

        I dunno.

        Third base !

  3. avatar MADDMAXX says:

    Only 2% of major crimes result in a conviction of the guilty party.

    That’s because they stopped investigating crimes committed by the segment of the population that commits the majority of crimes and now only arrest and bring white people to trial… Part of that reparations thing, making up for hundreds of years of white privilege….

    1. avatar Felix says:

      No. It’s so much easier and more lucrative to bust drug users, so much more satisfying to SWAT those easy targets, and you don’t find any assets to forfeit by investigating, you get them by stopping innocent people and never charging them.

      1. avatar Mike Carbine says:

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/23/cops-took-more-stuff-from-people-than-burglars-did-last-year/

        In the United States, in 2014, more cash and property transferred hands via civil asset forfeiture than via burglary.

        1. avatar ugly_duckling says:

          Yes, the government sux ballz and seizes assets, sometimes unfairly. Fuck them.
          But burglary is only one category of theft. From the article:
          “If you add up all the property stolen in 2014, from burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft and other means, you arrive at roughly $12.3 billion, according to the FBI. That’s more than double the federal asset forfeiture haul.”
          The article also goes on to talk about how the feds seized $1.7bil from Madoff that year. That substantially boosts the forfeiture numbers…

          The question I have is: what are the editors trying to say with the title of the article?
          What does this comparison of asset seizure and burglary tell us exactly?
          The comparison drawn provides nothing insightful and is only a lure to draw readers to click on the article it would seem. Looks like WaPo trash to me

    2. avatar Debbie W. says:

      A bigot is someone who sets themselves up to be a bitch for some white perp.
      Furthermore…I did not know prison populations were majority white…Amazing. And furthermore…You are clearly clueless about Reparations.
      Obviously some people come on forums like this and do a good job making stupid people more stupid.

      1. avatar Montana Actual says:

        Wut?

      2. avatar drunkEODguy says:

        https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_race.jsp

        they are a majority, but when you consider that White includes ethnic Hispanics, MENA, and basically anything that isn’t black or east Asian, its a pretty disproportionate distribution. Is what it is.

  4. avatar b72512ga says:

    I co-worker was asked by a new (nosy) neighbor what he did for a living. He told him he was a Criminal Historian.

  5. avatar Sam I Am says:

    You learn something new everyday. Had no idea there was any actual justification for abolishing police. If the stats are reliable, and representative of the real world, we are wasting way too much money on “security”.

    If 2%, 11% or 13% of effective “justice” system activity is all that separates us from utter chaos, we are a sad lot, indeed. It appears we still live based on the law of the jungle. Just dump all the cops, and let people take care of themselves…without legal consequence.

    No, don’t “re-purpose” the funds for cops and prosecutors and juries; cut taxes.

    1. avatar Ing says:

      But if you cut the police budget and give it back to the taxpayers, where will all the embedded social justice organizations get that windfall they’ve been counting on?

      1. avatar Sam I Am says:

        “But if you cut the police budget and give it back to the taxpayers, where will all the embedded social justice organizations get that windfall they’ve been counting on?”

        Federal grants.

    2. avatar Ron says:

      There’s actually nothing new about this.

      This is how it’s always been, in fact. Ever since record keeping on crime started. Actual conviction rates vs crimes committed is insanely disproportionate, and likely always will be, no matter what we do.

      The best way to protect the innocent is give the population the tools, training and legal authority to defend themselves from the criminals.

      1. avatar uncommon_sense says:

        Ron,

        The best way to protect the innocent is …

        What you described decreases the influence, wealth, and power of the ruling class which is precisely why it will never happen.

    3. avatar Jimmy Beam says:

      I agree. If this is the best the “justice system” can do, cancel the whole stinking system and let The People take care of business.

      1. avatar Montana Actual says:

        This is the way.

  6. avatar GS650G says:

    Yet they promise mass arrests and conviction for gun owners who don’t obey. If we learned anything this year large groups of lawless actors don’t get arrested and punished.

  7. avatar NORDNEG says:

    It’s the court system, when judges are NOT impartial ( which is most of them) & make rulings on what they think instead of ruling by the book of laws they swore to uphold, then people say , why get involved when most of the time criminals get off & go looking for the people that turn them in or testify against them. That’s why gangs run the big cities, We have a Rico law that never gets used that could fix the problem, then again, they only seem to pull that law out when Unions are involved.

  8. avatar Bill says:

    It sounds to me like majority of the people the police are arresting are innocent of the crimes they are being arrested for or the offices simply did not have enough evidence to begin with and should not have made the arrest in the first place. If that is the case we definitely need law enforcement reform in America.

    1. avatar Shire-man says:

      Not necessarily innocent but largely petty. Read How to Arrest Proof Yourself. It’s more profitable for the system to go after beurocracy offenders and low-level paperwork offenders like lapsed vehicle registrations. They can jam up people with little or no experience dealing with cops and lawyers for long time and lots of money.

      They use the scary offenses as justification to grow the apparatus and then round up regular blue collar Joes who don’t have much in the first place and don’t know any better to fund the system and once they’ve been marked they’re marked forever.

      Meanwhile the murderes, rapists and traffickers roam free. Nabbing Jeffery Dahmer is a net loss while stringing you along for months is a net gain.

  9. avatar Dyspeptic Gunsmith says:

    Now, when people point to Japan and how they “outlawed guns, and they have a low crime rate,” tell your ignorant interlocutor that in Japan:

    – their ‘closure rate’ for major crimes is 98%, and
    – their conviction rate for cases taken to court is 99%.

    Their low crime rate has nothing to do with a lack of firearms. It has to do with a legit fear that if the cops or courts get hold of you, even if you’re completely innocent, that you’re going to be near-certainly imprisoned.

    Oh, and BTW: The Japanese cops can use physical methods while interrogating you. They’re known for getting confessions – one way or another.

    1. avatar Ron says:

      Yep. It’s also a culture thing. Japanese culture is one of discipline, obedience, and submission to authority. It’s also family oriented and inherent respect is a large part of that.

      There’s a similar trend among other civilizations of low crime/rebellion, Germany is another example.

      It’s why the constant social media memes that go something like “herp derp German cops only shot 9 people last year” are completely out of touch with reality.

      America will never be like those civilizations.

      1. avatar Dude says:

        “It’s also family oriented and inherent respect is a large part of that.”

        It’s almost like there’s a data driven solution for us in America. Why is the Party of Science intent on dismantling the nuclear family instead of promoting it? Hmm

        1. avatar uncommon_sense says:

          Dude,

          Why is the Party of Science intent on dismantling the nuclear family instead of promoting it?

          I suspect you already know the answer. For those who do not know the answer, the Ruling Class (at least the Progressive Ruling Class anyway) wants to dismantle the nuclear family because that will increase the Ruling Class’ influence, wealth, and power.

          As the oft used and always applicable saying goes, “Follow the money.”

    2. avatar Dan W says:

      It’s the people. The crime rate for japanese people in America is about the same as japan. The same holds true for pretty much every group.

  10. avatar Ron says:

    I strongly recommend everyone here to research this and other data that’s been collected on crime in America over the last 100 years.

    It’s pretty interesting, much of it backs up the RTKBA arguments for an armed populous.

    You’ll also see that many arguments about “well we should do X” in regards to crime are wrong, because pretty much everything, and I mean everything, has been tried in the US over the last century.

    Actually locking up criminals and keeping them locked up, and letting to innocent defend themselves are the only two things that seem to work out of all of it.

  11. avatar rt66paul says:

    You can bet that if you have means to pay the fine after you get caught carrying without a permit here in Ca, you will be charged. They don’t charge the gang bangers with anything, they use it as a plea bargaining chip for other crimes.

  12. avatar Dog of War says:

    If only 2% of major crimes result in a conviction then I’m in the wrong line of work.

  13. avatar Red says:

    Different states have different rates. Lumping in clown states like Illinois (Chicago) skews the numbers. I have a hard time believing 2% of all criminals committing major crimes get convicted. If this were true, the streets would be swarming with criminals. They’d be so bold, there would be no stopping them.

    1. avatar Dan W says:

      I take it you haven’t watched the news lately?

  14. avatar GunnyGene says:

    I’ve posted this before, but here it is again:

    “If violent crime is to be curbed, it is only the intended victim who can do it. The felon does not fear the police, and he fears neither judge nor jury. Therefore what he must be taught to fear is his victim. Jeff Cooper”

  15. avatar Arc - the Annoying one says:

    Going to trial is purely a numbers game. If even 25% of arrests went to trial, it would collapse the legal system and backlog it to the point where nothing would get done. People are often arrested for X but plead down to Y which is a win in the eyes of the system since it frees up resources to keep prosecuting more people. I’m not sure how the stats get counted, but it may go down as a non-conviction since the plea deal crime may differ from the crime the person was arrested for. Even the abstract says the statistics are open to manipulation, all statistics are and they will show what you want them to show.

    I’m not a lawyer, nor do I play one on TV, and this is not legal advice. If you get caught up in something, it’s my personal opinion that people should almost always take their case to trial, it’s literally a game of chicken and someone will blink first; unless you know there is rock solid evidence against you, then take a deal. Resources are limited and they are better spent fleecing more people into taking plea deals than to tie them up trying to get a conviction on someone forcing a trial.

    1. avatar Ranger Rick says:

      The enhancements that come with trial are incentives to induce a “plea” to something to satisfy the system.

      That being said most (98%) federal cases that involve undercover operations, communications interceptions and cooperating sources will have the evidence to achieve a conviction.

  16. avatar former water walker says:

    Unmentioned is the nearly complete media bi-ass toward all those poor downtrodden persecuted brown fellows. Like that Blake pos shot in Kenosha-for repeatedly raping an underage girl. Can’t have his homie’s riot. AGAIN. STILL…what benefit is there to solve crimes save revenue enhancement or “for profit” hoosegow’s?

    1. avatar Miner49er says:

      “Repeatedly raping an underage girl”

      Where do you guys get this stuff, the racist news network?

      “CLAIM: Jacob Blake, the Black man who police shot multiple times in Wisconsin on Sunday, was once charged for raping a teenage girl.

      AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. No charges for sexual assault of a child have surfaced against Blake. Social media posts with these claims are shared without evidence. Blake was charged with third-degree sexual assault in Wisconsin in July for an incident that did not involve a minor.

      THE FACTS: After police shot Blake several times in the back in Kenosha, Wisconsin, sparking outrage and protests nationwide, some social media users sought to call Blake’s character into question with false claims about his criminal record.“

      1. avatar former water walker says:

        Minor whut are you prattling on about? I don’t respond to trolls little boy…

        1. avatar MADDMAXX says:

          I don’t respond to trolls little boy…

          As you seemingly respond to THE troll…..

        2. avatar Miner49er says:

          My post is in response to your comment:

          “Repeatedly raping an underage girl”

          Where do you guys get this stuff, the racist news network?

  17. avatar enuf says:

    Have twice in my life used a gun to defend myself. Got lucky both times that the criminal ran off upon realizing I was armed.
    ———————————–

    Brad Raffensperger/Nikki Haley 2024!!!

    … or …

    Nikki Haley/Brad Raffensperger 2024!!!

    I ain’t too particular on the order.

    1. avatar Ron says:

      Until one of them says the wrong thing and CNN declares them racist/sexist/nationalist/trumpist… right?

      Then you’ll tow the line on why you, yet again, must vote for a Democrat for the “good of the county” or the honor of the president or some bullshit.

      1. avatar Dude says:

        Raffensperger IS a democrat. He’s officially changing to the democrat party tomorrow, but he’s always been one. People often claim to be a member of whatever party will get them elected or hired in a political position. Georgia has been a red state for decades now, but it’s changing. So now it’s safe for Raffensperger to come out of the closet. enuf is trolling.

        1. avatar Montana Actual says:

          Enuf is always trolling.

        2. avatar Miner49er says:

          Regardless of party, Brad Raffensberger is a patriot who is following the laws of the state of Georgia and the Georgia and United States Constitution.

          And state, as well as federal courts, are supporting Raffensberger’s decisions by dismissing Trump and his allies BS lawsuits.

          Here’s another one today, bringing the total to about five dozen frivolous lawsuits kicked to the curb.

          “A federal judge in Atlanta on Tuesday denied a last-minute effort by President Trump to decertify Georgia’s election results, handing the president yet another courtroom loss just one day before Congress is scheduled to bring the presidential race to an official end.
          The ruling from the bench by Judge Mark H. Cohen denying the emergency petition brought the number of legal defeats that Mr. Trump and his allies have suffered since Election Day to more than 60. The challenges have spanned eight states and dozens of courts, and have become more desperate as the vote in Congress on Wednesday to formally certify the victory of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has drawn closer.
          In a complaint filed just hours before the start of the new year, Mr. Trump and his lawyers asked Judge Cohen to toss the verified results of Georgia’s presidential race, citing a litany of previously debunked fraud allegations. They claimed that officials in Georgia allowed dead people to vote, as well as unregistered voters, convicted felons still serving their sentences, and people who had registered to vote at post office boxes.
          Mr. Trump raised many of these false accusations on Saturday in an hourlong phone call in which he pressured Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to help him “find” just enough votes in Georgia to win the election. On Monday, another Georgia state official, Gabriel Sterling, held a news conference rebutting nearly all of Mr. Trump’s false claims.

          Judge Cohen denied the president’s emergency request at a brief hearing on Tuesday morning that journalists were blocked from covering remotely. While reporters have covered most of the hearings related to election challenges from Mr. Trump and his allies by either phone or video, Mr. Trump’s lawyers did not consent to allowing public access to the remote livestream of the hearing on Tuesday.”

          Notice that last line, trump’s lawyers did not consent to allowing public access…

          What did they want to hide, their poor performance in court? Too late for that, we’ve watched their rumors, lies and intimidation attempts all fail.

        3. avatar MADDMAXX says:

          Things that make you say HMMMMMMMM….. From The Western Journal…
          Letters are being circulated among state legislators in four swing states asking that Vice President Mike Pence pause the process of counting electoral votes pending further investigation and litigation into voting irregularities…. Each letter represents an attempt by state legislatures to exercise their power, clearly granted to them exclusively by the Constitution, over who will represent their states in the Electoral College…. The letters are by no means identical, but language used in Arizona is typical: “We respectfully ask that you recognize our desire to reclaim Arizona’s Electoral College Electors and block the use of any Electors from Arizona until such time as the controversy is properly resolved through the pending litigation or a comprehensive forensic audit.”… Legislators in Georgia requested a 12-day delay in counting to allow for “further investigation of fraud, irregularities, and misconduct in the November 2020 General Election.”… Letters from both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin state that the legislators intend to appoint electors, potentially different from those already selected, following further audits of the election results…. Probably nothing, just a bunch of power crazed state legislators that have already been displaced by a handful of election officials, a couple of judges and a state AG or two trying to be relevant again, not a problem some local magistrate, justice of the peace or notary public will shut them down quickly enough…… Poor delusional fools…

  18. avatar Ranger Rick says:

    It should be kept in mind that only the most unlucky and dumbest criminals are caught let alone convicted.

    1. avatar Miner49er says:

      “Animals did this”

      These are the convicted perpetrators:

      “Joshua Komisarjevsky, 35, and Steven Hayes, 52, were later convicted”

  19. avatar Darkman says:

    Good news for Ohioan’s.
    DeWine Signs SB 175 Making ‘No Duty to Retreat’ Ohio Law
    https://www.ammoland.com/2021/01/dewine-signs-sb-175-making-no-duty-to-retreat-ohio-law/#axzz6idxk5ObU

  20. avatar MLee says:

    If they cuffed me with phony play cuffs like in the image, they’d never convict me of anything either. Shit, no wonder!

  21. avatar Craig in IA says:

    I see several different terms being apparently interchanged to describe a category of crime in this post, with yet another in the comments section. So:

    Are “serious crimes” the same as “serious violent crimes”?

    Are these the same as “major crimes”?

    Are all of these “felonies”?

    And then, of course, the article refers to “serious violent felonies” as well. If I’m to believe anything I read or in a rare instance, watch on some TV newscast, I’d like to think we’re always comparing “apples to apples”… Sometimes the Devil may be in the semantics and small details.

    1. avatar Ed Schrade says:

      You left out the ” mostly peaceful protest ” description of a riot.

      1. avatar Craig in IA says:

        That wasn’t used in the article

  22. avatar Dude says:

    “A whole lot of people think that police deter serious violent crime.”

    They do. Why do you think gas stations give them a discount and free coffee? They want the police to come by and hang out.

    1. avatar Craig in IA says:

      Uh, I can think of a growing number of instances where the “mere presence” of a cop translates into a “target of opportunity” and near immortality for scumbags that would blow YOU away with not so much as a primary thought, let alone second one.

    2. Same reason Donut shops give them discounts, just the presence of the cruiser in their parking lot deters crime. Maybe the Police Departments and Sheriff’s Department should just park a unit in the Parking lot of the Gas Stations and Donut shops. Think of all the crime prevented.

      1. avatar Sam I Am says:

        “Police Departments and Sheriff’s Department should just park a unit in the Parking lot of the Gas Stations and Donut shops. Think of all the crime prevented.”

        Just let everyone who wants paint their cars in LE schemes. Think of the confusion for bad guys.

  23. avatar busybeef says:

    I guess Crime does Pay.

  24. avatar Ralph says:

    So let me get this straight — someone can ventilate a dude and avoid consequences, but if I go to the dude’s funeral I’ll be busted by ten very brave uniformed thugs for violating Covid restrictions. Is that pretty much it?

    And they wonder why we don’t trust them.

  25. avatar Anymouse says:

    The problem is the calculation of the number of crimes makes the conviction ratio particularly low. . There’s definitely unreported crimes, especially sexual ones. I had a friend in college who told me of a couple date rapes and a forcible rape, but she never reported anything. Quantifying the amount of those crimes is the issue. Some stats say 1 in 5 women are raped. Are they counting unsolved missing persons as murders, or only bodies found that an autopsy rules as homicide? What number of missing persons are never reported because they’re homeless, street prostitutes, etc? Sam Little claimed 93 murders of these forgotten people that were never even suspected, and they would have remained unsolved if not for his jailhouse confessions. Defensive gun uses fall into this category too. From Lott and other surveys, the majority of crimes stopped with display of a firearm don’t get reported. Unless you want to make an insurance claim, who wants to hassle with police for a crime that has no evidence other than your account and no damages. It’ll go at the bottom of the get-to-never pile.

  26. avatar KUETSA says:

    Commit to carrying a legal concealed firearm to defend yourself and your loved ones.
    Defend yourself against a violent criminal.
    For all the crime and violence that is not prosecuted . . . one thing likely . . . YOU – MR OR MS LAW ABIDING CITIZEN CONCEALED CARRIER WILL BE ONE OF THE PROUD 2% THAT THEY WILL PROSECUTE AND CONVICT TO SERIOUS JAIL TIME!

    Self defense with a firearm has been outlawed!
    Dare to defend yourself and be a proud 2%er!

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