“Officers are using technology and tips from the community to get weapons off the streets,” abc30.com reports. “The result, according to the police chief, is a noticeable reduction in violent crime in all categories.” Wow! A reduction! A noticeable reduction! In all categories! Now repeat after me Chief Dyer . . .
Correlation does not equal causation.
Many factors affect who shoots whom, when, where and why. For example, you can correlate the frequency of Chicago gangland firearms-related homicides with the state of war between rival gangs. Police “sweeps” of gang members also has an impact. As does the weather.
Let’s look at Fresno’s numbers . . .
More than a dozen guns came from officers following up on leads from gunshots fired on New Year’s Eve. The chief says already homicides are down because of the recent effort.
Already this year, homicides in Fresno are down 50-percent. No coincidence according to Dyer but rather enforcement related.
As the Brits would say, Chief Dyer is playing silly buggers. Given Fresno’s annual homicide rate — 40 – 50 per year – a fifty percent drop over one month in homicides could mean a drop from four homicides to two. Or two to one.
If we’re looking to isolate the “guns on the street variable,” it would be nice to know how many guns are “on the street” and how many the cops confiscated compared to that same one month time period in 2017.
Come to think of it, “homicides” doesn’t necessarily mean firearms-related homicides does it?
Are we sure this story is legit? Are we sure that the guns on display were all confiscated in 2018? Were all of them taken from criminals?
The chief’s media cheerleader is payingy no attention to the reality behind that curtain. They’re happy just watching the Chief pick up his crayons and connect the dubious dots. Like this:
When these [number not specified] guns underwent forensic testing, officers also found a common thread.
“There’s an enormous amount of shootings that are occurring in our city with the same firearm. Meaning that firearm is either being passed around amongst gang members, which we know occurs, or one individual using a firearm is committing multiple shootings,” Dyer said . . .
Officers are using old-school police tactics and modern day technology to lead them to non-law-abiding gun holders. It’s a commitment Dyer says will be yearlong.
Shootings are down significantly from the same time last year. Officers have also arrested several gang members who are unlawfully in possession of guns.
An “enormous amount” of shootings being . . .? And you’d kinda hope that the Chief’s minions could figure out if there’s a multiple murderer on the loose without having to examine firearms confiscated after celebratory gunfire.
I wonder if shooting a fellow gang bangers in Fresno is as easy as shooting holes in Chief Dyer’s “We Got Guns Off the Street!” PR campaign. And guess what? The Chief promises more of the same.
Officers are using old-school police tactics and modern day technology to lead them to non-law-abiding gun holders. It’s a commitment Dyer says will be yearlong.
Good to know Fresno’s finest aren’t targeting law-abiding gun “holders.” They’re leaving that task to California legislators . . .
Fresno averages 40-50 murders per year:
http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Fresno-California.html
That works out to fewer than one per week. Over a 3-4 week period, that works out to… 3-4 murders. So, a 50% reduction over that period comes out to 1-2 fewer murders.
I don’t think the chief understands the concept of statistically significant variation.
I think he understands it.
I think he knows darn well that a reduction of 1 or 2 homicides can’t be pinned on any specific cause.
He also knows that his constituents are gullible enough to believe whatever comes out of his mouth.
Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.
Gang shootings and murders are cyclical. Usually there is a tit for tat period where gang bangers start picking eachother off in retaliation. The less psychopathic bangers lay low or are picked off, while the psychos shoot at eachother until they are dead or get caught. There will be a lul for a few years until the next iteration of psychos step up and learn the ropes during which time there are amateurish shootings where there’s a lot of gun fire and maybe a limb hit and maybe even someone getting killed. It takes a while for them to learn how to press a kill or efficiently “off” somebody and get away….. unless your city has a major gang saturation problem like Oakland, LA, Chicago, etc, you’re going to see these cycles eb and flow through the years. With “only” 50 murders a year (mostly gang murders I’m assuming) it’s likely due to this natural cycle. It would also explain why other crimes are down. The Chief has been a cop (sorry,…. “police officer”) for a while. He’s seen these trends. He’s just doing what political mouth pieces do and shill for the city and Mayor.
So “taking guns off the street” reduces violent crime in all categories? So simple assault and other crimes that in no way involve guns are somehow reduced? I don’t think his mouth is the orifice the chief is talking out of…
As an officer, I can tell you its not about taking “guns off the street” its about taking “pieces of human garbage” off the street after arresting them for legitimate crimes.
So do they take the criminals off the street and do some investigation to trace the crimes they have committed and put them away, or just take the guns and say “no more guns for you,” catch and release?
I don’t find it strange that the same gun is used in multiple crimes – if you and your friends are the sort who would use a gun in one crime, you will likely continue to do so.
I guess once all these guns are off the streets the, uh, suspects will just decide to play video games or basket ball or go fishing maybe?
If the trend continues, the only gangbangers in California with guns left are the ones wearing badges
Exactly.
Wasn’t this the same dept. that shot Dylan Noble?
That first picture: crappy jamomatic .22LR from Brazil
Yeah, you did someone a favor by getting that piece of junk off the street.
Hey, y’all. That “high powered assault machine gun” he’s proudly posing with is a Mossberg 715 .22 cal plinker.
Yeah, I know it’s still a real gun but… just seems a bit disingenuous to include it in their victory lap.
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No kidding, what an idiot. There was some real hardware on those tables. But you always have to remember that a lot of cops are not “gun people”
The “real hardware,” mostly with wooden stocks, is not nearly as scary and evil looking as the “assault rifle” he was holding. Most of them don’t even have ultra-high capacity magazines or shoulder things that go up!
It’s all about the emotional response to a visual that fits the media narrative.
Several of those wooden stock bolt actions look like .22s.
My thought exactly. It’s all about the optics.
Mark, Most of the guns only appear to have iron sights. I don’t see any optics.
Stereodude, I was not talking about sights on the guns, I was talking about optics in the sense of “appearances,” or how things are perceived by the unknowing public/
Thanks for that. I thought it was a .22LR, but wasn’t sure the maker
Can somebody please direct me to these streets where all these guns are laying about? I would like to pick up a few more for my arsenal. I have tried following cops into restrooms to see if they leave anything behind but no luck yet.
Dyer has always talked a big game about going after gangs, but I honestly don’t know if they’ve had much success. I, for one, avoid F-No as much as possible. The entire place just feels like it wants to be the next Los Angeles.
On an unrelated note, what is that ugly little box of a pistol in the last picture?
Ah, yes… the famous Raven MP25.
Straight blowback .25 acp pocket pistol made mostly of ZAMAK. Cheap, notoriously unreliable and barely adequate for personal defense. It filled the niche back then currently occupied by Hi-point and KelTec today.
Interestingly, they have a kind of cult-like fan base these days… takes all kinds, I guess…
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They are an upgrade from the the Crossman M1911ish pellet pistol.
Officers are using old-school police tactics and modern day technology to lead them to non-law-abiding gun holders.
Like making Law abiding gun owners that own bump stocks felons with a possibility of life in prison with Ex post facto laws?
Let’s not start this crap about ex post facto laws. A law is NOT ex post facto simply because it bans now something that was once legal. An ex post facto law makes what you did legally in the past to be a punishable crime. For example, say you bought a bump stock last year, but this year, a law is passed that says not only are bump stocks illegal now, it is illegal as well when you bought it. In formal terms, it is the criminalization of past legal conduct that constitutes an ex post facto law. By contrast, criminalizing current conduct (continues possession of a banned item), is not ex post facto because you are punished for your current conduct, not your past conduct.
Probably the most correlative variable about this piece is that police chiefs can generally be counted on to parrot the political opinions of the mayor and city officials they work for. Generally they were chosen for the job for just that reason. “Getting guns off the street” works in Fresno because the prevailing political climate wants it to work.
The real questions are not answered here. We’re thw guns legally bought? Were the people committing the crimes legally allowed to posses them? What charges were brought against the people who lost their weapons to the police? Is the drop due to other factors like the economy or legalization of pot? There’s other before you get to whether the Chief was speaking something approaching the truth.
Maybe it has something to do with the fact that the local sheriff is “virtual shall issue” when it comes to CCWs.
Wow a .22.
Cops take them off the streets and liberal judges release them.
It actually makes sense folks. Take a stolen firearm out of the hands of a criminal, and he can’t use it to rob, assault, or murder anyone. Neither can his homies or relatives. And before you attack Chief Jerry Dyer, consider the following:
http://abc30.com/politics/gun-measure-push-by-lt-governor-receiving-resistance-from-fresno-law-enforcement-leaders/1247434/
http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2011/10/daniel-zimmerman/whats-the-matter-with-fresno/
I suspect the pure hatred of some of the commenters here towards law enforcement cause them to spew unreasonable bullshit out of their mouths, before they actually understand the situation.
One thing I’ve noticed in the last few years is the vulgarity of law enforcement while giving commands to comply, why you’d think they were down right hateful.
“Take a stolen firearm out of the hands of a criminal, and he can’t use it to rob, assault, or murder anyone.”
And since it was the last gun on the surface of the Earth, the criminal just shrugs his shoulders and gets a job. There is no way criminals could rob, assault and murder without guns. Oh, those blessed, peaceful, crime free times before invention od gun powder!
Try this – Take a stolen computer out of hands of hacker and he can’t use it for cyber crime.
If the police focused on taking criminals off the streets, instead of their tools, chief’s bragging about his work causing (unspecified) crime reduction would make much more sense.