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The latest Federal Bureau of Investigation crime data for the first quarter of 2024 shows a substantial reduction in crime compared to the same time last year. In fact, the FBI reported that crime fell more than 15% from the first quarter 2023.

A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least two or more common months of data for January through March 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 15.2 percent. Murder decreased by 26.4 percent, rape decreased by 25.7 percent, robbery decreased by 17.8 percent, and aggravated assault decreased by 12.5 percent. Reported property crime also decreased by 15.1 percent”

Let me say up front that I don’t believe the FBI’s crime data, and not just because I’m leery of all government agencies under the Biden regime. A conversation I had a month or so back with Dr. John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, opened my eyes to some important truths you won’t hear in the so-called “mainstream” media.

One factor, according to Lott, is that when crime started increasing dramatically during the pandemic, many big cities, in an attempt to hide that trend, simply stopped reporting their crime figures to the FBI. In fact, 37% of police departments, including those in big, crime-ridden cities like Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City, no longer report their crime data to the FBI.

Without those cities, the FBI data doesn’t give a true reflection of the current situation. Also, trends in whether or not citizens report crimes play a factor in the crime data numbers.

“There is a big problem with using the FBI Uniform Crime Report data on crimes reported to police because victims don’t report most crimes,” Lott wrote in a recent analysis. “More importantly, the number of crimes reported to police falls as the arrest rate declines. If people don’t think the police will solve their cases, they are less likely to report them to the police.”

As Lott pointed out to bolster this argument, although the violent crime rate reported to police declined 1.7% between 2021 and 2022, the National Crime Victimization Survey showed that total violent crime—both reported and unreported—actually jumped substantially from 16.5 to 23.5 per thousand during that period. Additionally, violent crime in 2022 was above the rate the last year before the pandemic in 2019 and above the average for the five years from 2015 to 2019.

All that said, the FBI crime data showing greatly reduced crime for the first quarter of 2024 is a hard pill for me to swallow. Most people can see that crime is increasing all around them, yet the “mainstream” media cling to the FBI data to try to prove things aren’t so bad under the Biden Administration.

However, for just a few moments let’s pretend that the data is correct and that crime has fallen substantially. With near record gun sales for almost five years, wouldn’t that reduction prove that Lott’s seminal book, More Guns, Less Crime, published back in 1998 and updated a number of times since then, is even more true today than it was then?

That’s the point Alan Gottlieb, chairman of the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, made in a recent Ammoland feature juxtaposing the lower crime rate in relation to incredibly high gun sales over the past several years.

“What this report shows is that blaming lawful gun ownership for violent crime is a non-starter, and it always has been,” Gottlieb concluded.

In the end, you can either believe your lying eyes that tell you violent crime continues to be on the upswing and the Biden Administration has failed Americans in that respect, or you can believe crime has gone down substantially in the wake of Americans buying more than 1 million guns a month for the past 58 months. Neither option looks good for the Biden gun-ban clan.

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  1. “There is a big problem with using the FBI Uniform Crime Report data on crimes reported to police because victims don’t report most crimes,”

    Shoot, shovel, shut up.

    Or dump the body into a dumpster.

    • “Or dump the body into a dumpster.”

      A pig sty with hungry piggies will do in a pinch…

      • Increasingly up here it’s just stab and leave them where they lie. Not at all connected to the illegals we get shipped from NYC of course.

  2. They’re not reporting crime statistics because they’re covering up for the usual suspects. Reporting crime is “racist.”

  3. What it does say is, outside the non-reporting blue urban areas, this is actually a pretty law abiding populace.

  4. Once upon a time, the fbi crime data was reasonably reliable. the major exception was the massive under reporting of homicides by police. the reason was obvious. It was hoped that the risk of civil and legal as well as political liability might be reduced. The result was the rioting over obviously justified shootings by police and the defund the police movement.

    Of course the FBI crime data that rebutted the mythology about so called “assault rifles” was ignored.

    • Stevie Wonder can see crime is sky high. It sure is in Chiraq. Funny but with a majority of states passing some form of “constitutional carry” those river’s of blood ain’t materializing in those states🙄

  5. Truth Bomb:

    A hallmark of most Far Left Pr0gre$$ive Democrats is an absence of timeless and unchanging truth and values. That paves the way for far Left Pr0gre$$ive Democrats to do pretty much anything and everything to retain and increase their political power.

    When you acknowledge the above truth, it becomes very easy to see how Democrats in government will distort data and even outright lie if it advances their goals.

    • Well yes it is (insert current year) here you must be a (insert inane insult designed to shut down discussion and label you as an undesirable here) if you don’t support (insert #current thing or talking point here)

      Seem familiar?

  6. FBI crime data has always been a ‘mix bag’ of hodgepodge ‘conditions’.

    First, as the article outlines, the ‘condition’ that not all states or police departments report.

    Second, there is also the ‘condition’ that in the states or police departments that do report their own internal ‘conditions’ determine what is and is not reported. For example, a crime for which a person has not been prosecuted and adjudicated ‘guilty’ yet may not be reported thus even if a person has been arrested for the crime it may not be reported.

    Third, there are a lot of crimes reported for which the perpetrator, either known or not known, has not been arrested.

    Fourth, the FBI’s own internal ‘conditions’ mostly dictate various levels of ‘prosecution’ to apply. For example, the FBI homicide (in terms of actual murder) stats only include those for which there was a conviction with an adjudication of ‘guilty’ and in many murder cases the perpetrator is not adjudicated ‘guilty’ due to technicalities of the law even though the perpetrator committed the crime.

    Fifth, not all crimes are prosecuted even though there is clear and convincing ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ evidence that could be used to prosecute. We see more of this in today’s world with left wing prosecutors who simply refuse to prosecute for ‘social or political’ agenda reasons.

    Sixth, as outlined in the article, many crimes are simply not reported. This can be for various reasons, for example, fear of retribution or lack of confidence in the legal system and police.

    However, all of these when they are reported to police, reside in police reports even though they never make it into the FBI stats.

    My wife (and some others who work with her) does an annual research project under contract through the NIH each year. She gets access to systems with data bases that show police reporting – not the stuff reported to the FBI or appearing in FBI stats but the actual police reports and stats/information in various state and private research data bases and its eye opening. I get a peek at their work, here’s some of it:

    Violent criminal stabbing/slashing attacks with knives against victims happen (at current levels) ~ 2,900 times daily across the United States.

    Violent criminal attacks with hand-feet/blunt objects against victims happen (at current levels) ~ 4,200 times daily across the United States.

    Violent criminal attacks using any non-firearm ‘weapon’ (including hand/feet) for purposes of ‘sexual assault’ (either with or without rape) against victims (at current levels) is ~5,600 times daily across the United States.

    Violent criminal ‘trans-on-trans’ or ‘trans-on-gay’ or ‘trans-on-straight’ (collectively) attacks using any non-firearm ‘weapon’ (including hand/feet) for any purpose (including ‘sexual assault’ either with or without rape) against victims (at current levels) is ~4,700 times daily across the United States.

    (Note: Clarification for :

    “Violent criminal stabbing/slashing attacks with knives against victims happen (at current levels) ~ 2,900 times daily across the United States.

    Violent criminal attacks with hand-feet/blunt objects against victims happen (at current levels) ~ 4,200 times daily across the United States.”

    These are not for purposes of ‘sexual assault’. They are things such as, for example, robbery or domestic abuse assault or other assaults or home invasion or attacks on students or school staff in schools.

    at current levels = was at the time I got these numbers in the current level research calendar which runs Dec 1 of the previous year 2023 to April 1 2024. Haven’t had time to look at the rest in 2024 yet.)

    An Example: According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, (though use of) National Crime Victimization Surveys, since year 2000 to end of year 2022 (I haven’t done examination of 2023 yet).. for the two categories of crime of rape and murder … there was an average of 207,000 (rounded figure) rapes and 436,000 (rounded figure) murders prevented annually by Defensive Gun Use in the form of brandishing only. That’s 643,000 violent crimes (just for two types) prevented annually just by the victims defensively brandishing their firearm. Crimes by the perpetrator (starting or partially carrying out the crime before stopped) that were defended against – crimes they were (attempted murder, attempted rape – with associated actions crime e.g. assaults), but ya don’t see these these numbers reflected in the FBI stats now do you.

    Another Example: … “On average, there are 463,634 victims (age 12 or older) of rape and sexual assault each year in the United States.”

    Ya think all of these were carried out because the criminal attacker used a firearm?

    and > “Personal weapons—such as hands, feet or teeth—are used against victims of sexual violence in about 2 out of 3 cases.” …. in 11% of cases of these attacks a firearm was used 6% of the time, a knife used 4% of the time, and other weapons 1% of the time…but about 66% of the time “Personal weapons—such as hands, feet or teeth” were used. Or in other words, there are annually over ~300,000 criminal assaults for purposes of rape and sexual assault where the perpetrator used a non-firearm weapon.

    So: Add up the numbers your self – and its quickly seen that a whole lot more crime happens than what is seen in FBI stats. Its not a secret, its just not directly publicly exposed so the public never hears about it making them ripe for exploitation, for example, the false narrative that crime is down under Biden when the FBI stats are used when in reality its not down just not reported in the FBI stats and actually its increased.

    In other words, the FBI stats are useless as a means of determining actual crime rates or declines or increases.

  7. Lol, my comment is awaiting moderation.
    And here is what I typed.
    ” I see what see and not what someone else tells me to see.”

    • Yeah, no idea why this program chooses some of what it does. I go in an approve things everyday that don’t say anything bad.

    • Huh, that worked? I’ve been moderated 3 times. Absolutely nothing.
      I c what I c not what someone tells me to c.

  8. The next time the grinning idiot brags about lowering crime, a reporter should ask which of his policies did that. Oh yeah, he isn’t allowed to talk to them because then he’ll get in trouble (his words). Imagine supporting that senile puppet, either directly or indirectly.

  9. Dependent upon the outcome of 2024 elections there is a good chance reporting of violent crime will ‘necessarily rise’ in 2025.

    • In other words, crime statistics are manipulated for political purposes. Who woulda thunk?

      If all we did was to add in actual statics from Chicago and New York (and other nonreporting major cities) the conclusions of decreased crime would undoubtedly change.

    • I just passed this on to every TV station within 100 miles of my location that reported the incorrect numbers earlier this month. Now I’ll see if any of them actually report the truth or continue with the false narrative put out by the DOJ/FBI.

    • LOL no, up 10-30% across various NY municipalities from 2019 to now and about 1/3 of that last year to now. Only a handful of the cities report to the FBI. As to poverty West Virginia alone proved that to be nonsense decades ago and still does. Get new narratives this one is untenable.

      • The propagandists are usually comparing the crime rates to 2020, when it jumped way up thanks to Democrats urging the fiery but mostly peaceful “protests.” Those obediently following the Order of the Puppet aren’t bright enough to figure that out.

        • I always use 2019 as a baseline for near term normal since both Covid/BLM nonsense and bail reform came in 2020. Even by early to mid 2000’s standards we are not doing great.

          • 2019 makes perfect sense. 2020 was an obvious outlier. But propaganda works.

            I had a long conversation with a lifelong Democrat voter over the weekend. It’s scary how little she understood. At the end of the conversation, she said she probably won’t vote this year.

  10. And inflation isn’t so bad if you exclude fuel, housing and food. You know, that frivolous stuff nobody needs to buy.

      • Oh so prices are not still outpacing wages at an accelerated rate from prepandemic? You are getting a bit awkward there bud.

      • Oh wow! Color me impressed that it is no longer running at 9 percent! Why I might even be able to retire on the savings from lower price increases! That’s how it works right? Right?

      • @jsled
        You mean the rate of inflation is slowing compared to two years ago. That is not the same thing as inflation being down. We are still well above the target inflation rate. What were you saying about basic economic literacy?

        If you visit your doctor, and he says, “Good work! You only gained 10 pounds this year, compared to 10 pounds last year and 20 pounds the year before.” Would that mean that you are losing weight, jsled?

        BTW, the March 2024 inflation rate is HIGHER than the previous FIVE MONTHS. The May 2024 rate is HIGHER than Oct & Nov of 2023. It’s also higher than Jan & Feb of 2024. It’s basically equal to Dec. of 2023 (3.4 vs 3.3). Thank you jsled for reminding us that Biden supporters are clueless.

        • What is going to suck is when demand is there and we don’t have the strategic oil reserve to play bread and circuses with.

          • It’s nuts. I’m old enough to remember when Trump wanted to purchase extra oil to add to the reserves during a period of prosperity/low inflation, and the Democrats wouldn’t agree to it. Not only are they using the reserve to hide their horrible policies, we’re going to have to pay much more to get it back some day. They hate America.

            Talk about a campaign contribution… I wonder what the total $$ is up to?

  11. Bagdad Bob was more believable than any statistics put out by the Biden Regime

  12. OK. Crime is dropping where white people live. Good for them. Now what’s the point???

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