Bloomberg’s ‘The Trace’ Tracks NICS Checks…Badly

blackboard calculation

(Bigstock)

By Larry Keane

As the trade association for the firearm and ammunition industry, the NSSF tracks industry-related data closely. Whether it is the tens of millions of dollars our manufacturers pay in excise tax for conservation projects, the ever-growing popularity of the modern sporting rifle (now exceeding 17 million sold just since 1990), or the broadening market for firearms among all demographics, NSSF tracks it.

Now ‘The Trace,’ an antigun advocacy group bought and paid for by billionaire Michael Bloomberg that masquerades as a news outlet, has a new tool that tracks the number of guns purchased in America. They make some adjustments for seasonal variations and sales that include multiple guns.

US Gun Sales Chart

Courtesy TheTrace.org

Being new to a project that NSSF has been doing for decades, their figures are a bit off. Rather than the Trace’s estimated 2.61 million firearms purchased in July, the NSSF’s adjusted NICS figure for July 2020 is 1,848,307. The highest July on record, this is an increase of 122.5 percent compared to the July 2019 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 830,579.

Difference More than a Distinction

How is this different? NSSF’s adjustments are derived by subtracting NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for concealed carry permit application checks as well as checks on active concealed carry permit databases.

NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016. We caution that the data aren’t a direct correlation to firearms sales, rather they represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.

NSSF is also clear about the limitations in the data. Twenty-five states currently have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer. The number of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits and NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.

The states of Alabama and Michigan had law changes that affected their Brady Law standing which removed qualifying alternate permits usage for firearm transactions. These changes went into effect July 22, 2019 for Alabama, and March 3, 2020 for Michigan. In July 2020, Alabama state’s NSSF-adjusted NICS was 230.1 percent higher than July 2019, which accounts for an additional 40,906 checks over this time last year. July 2020 NICS numbers for Michigan were up 403.8 percent over June 2019 and account for an additional 56,359 checks.

The level of detail and analysis involved in NSSF’s adjusted NICS figures is indicative of our long-standing work on this tracking. Perhaps if gun control activists spent more time analyzing data and less time manipulating it to argue for more restrictions on law-abiding gun owners, they would have launched a more effective tool.

 

Larry Keane is SVP for Government and Public Affairs, Assistant Secretary and General Counsel of the National Shooting Sports Foundation.

comments

  1. avatar Darkman says:

    Bloomberg…Nuff Said

  2. avatar enuf says:

    Yup, the last ten guns I have bought did not need to go thru NICS. Just show the FFL my concealed weapon permit, he records it on the form and that’s it.

    Easy peasy, no waiting on the phone call and at some FFL’s the transfer fee is less! 🙂

  3. avatar Keith Pallo says:

    If its Bloomberg it has to be fake!!

  4. avatar Terry says:

    It is a great thing that they seem to realize that executing our 2A right is becoming more and more popular. It’s like the driver on the interstate going the wrong way – the more come towards him, the more he may realize that he is on the wrong way 🙂

    Besides that – who really gives a shit about Bloomberg’s scam data??

  5. avatar Green Mtn. Boy says:

    As badly as the NSSF? The same guys that said the most sold semi auto used rifle is the M1 Garand,there couldn’t have been more DCM sales last month than all sales of used AR’s and AK’s in the nation during that same month.

    Or that the TEC9 is an AR pistol, actually the furthest thing from a AR design, it doesn’t speak highly of the NSSF or their supposed facts.

    Enough so that it should cause one to question NSSF’s sales numbers, almost as much as their dedication to Americans 2 amendment rights, nice try.

    How can they seriously argue facts and numbers with civilian disarmament proponents such as the Bloomturd organization,when they can’t get there facts straight, the manufactures should expect their monies worth.

    1. avatar 9x39 says:

      *snickers at the truth*

      That left a foul taste in my mouth, not even being able to get their own supporters statistics right.

    2. avatar eremeya says:

      How can we trust an internet commentator that doesn’t know the difference between “there” and “their”?

  6. avatar Ralph says:

    “Rather than the Trace’s estimated 2.61 million firearms purchased in July, the NSSF’s adjusted NICS figure for July 2020 is 1,848,307.”

    So The Trace claims that a lot more guns were sold than the NSSF shows. Why is that bad?

  7. avatar Montana Actual says:

    NICS, the biggest infringement to gun owners, ever.

  8. avatar Docduracoat says:

    Let’s hope all these new legal Gun owners vote to keep their guns.
    This is potentially millions of votes against gun ban referenda

  9. avatar 4808 N says:

    Texas Gun Trader. I’ll leave this right here.

  10. avatar possum says:

    Some people need terminated for the good of Our country.

  11. avatar Marv says:

    When the 2nd goes the 1st will soon follow.

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