NSSF-Adjusted NICS Background Checks Down 9.8% for November, 2018

FBI November 2018 nics background checks

Source: FBI

From the National Shooting Sports Foundation:

The November 2018 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,314,193 is a decrease of 9.8 percent compared to the November 2017 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,457,103. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2018 FBI NICS figure of 2,363,705 reflects a 0.4 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,372,888 in November 2017.

The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.

Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms. FBI NICS and NSSF-adjusted NICS figures do not account for firearm sales or transfers using approved alternate permits such as a concealed carry license. Several states allow the use of such alternate permits that have become popular among consumers over the past several years.

It should be noted that these statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold or sales dollars. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale. 

comments

  1. avatar jwm says:

    Everybody already has a gun(s).

    1. avatar Texican says:

      Plus how many people are making guns from 80% receivers these days? I bet that’s cutting into the numbers as well.

      1. avatar Texican says:

        Additionally, how many people with license to carry CCW who don’t have to go through a NICS check are buying guns?

    2. avatar frank speak says:

      except the liberals…who are secretly buying them but trying to keep it from their friends…

  2. avatar Xythlord says:

    Well – Since I live in Washington (the west coast bastion of liberal thinking, rather than the east coast bastion of corruption), we can see the coming damage from I-1639 and sales of stripped lowers are becoming a hot commodity. I picked up 4 Aero lowers along with my new first 1911 to tide me over for a bit. That said, any new lowers or full AR’s will have to be purchased in another state.

  3. avatar Tim says:

    It’s amazing what having a non-fascist President does to gun sales!

    1. avatar RogueVal says:

      Who would that be?

      1. avatar Tim says:

        You’re welcome, Hillary.

      2. avatar CC says:

        When it comes to gun control it is obvious: both Hillary and before her, Obama, exhibited all the traits of fascists. Obama promoted the “Australia model” which is mass confiscation, essentially no semi auto no pistols of any kind, and having to prove a need in order to even own a gun.

  4. avatar Edward Rogers says:

    My anecdotal evidence is an uptick in my ballistic gelatin videos. They languished pretty much all of the fall season. This month, I’ve started to see renewed interest. Primarily in my .380 video.

  5. avatar former water walker says:

    Bought a gun. Passed a check…what more can I do?😄

    1. avatar frank speak says:

      buy another one?…..starting to view it as a patriotic act……

    1. avatar Geoff says:

      “Shot in the head”.
      “had undergone concealed weapons training”
      Yup! That’s the way to do it!
      Pickens County is Greenville on the West end of SC for those that don’t want to look it up.
      I’m near North Myrtle Beach.

  6. avatar Stateisevil says:

    Next run will be 2 years from now after orange man loses the 2020 election. Can you imagine the run if Demonrats take the Senate as well? Then again, there will be nothing stopping President O’Rourke or Harris from declaring AR15’s machine guns after the Trump fatwah.

    1. avatar frank speak says:

      no real political will for that….or even lesser restrictions…even among the newly elected members of congress…it would put the NFA under judicial review…doubt that’s anything most want to happen…

  7. avatar rc says:

    No worries…it’ll go back up to record levels as soon as the Dems are sworn into the house to take control in January. They have a lot of very interesting ‘gun violence’ conversations all queued up and ready to go. Everybody is just asleep right now.

    1. avatar Tim says:

      Just basking in the afterglow of 2 back-to-back conservative SCOTUS appointments. It’ll be ‘3’ in about 5 more months.

    2. avatar john says:

      Like H.R 7115 that has already been written. It is anti 1st and 2nd amendments.

      1. avatar frank speak says:

        their capacity for “overreach” is usually their undoing…..

      2. avatar Geoff says:

        Nothing to do with 3D printed firearms. Deliberate misleading title. It’s about banning chunks of aluminum and 80% and all the parts to assemble to your AR. Basically no more lower parts kits, stocks, uppers, barrels, ANYTHING you need to complete a homebuilt AR.
        https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2018/11/kat-ainsworth/goodbye-ar-builds-hello-h-r-7115-nationwide-proposed-ban-in-the-works/

  8. avatar Bob Jones says:

    I would not be the least bit surprised if democrat bureaucrats at BATFE were recording the names of all persons getting background checks. For the future good of the party.

  9. avatar Kendahl says:

    A 10% decrease? In the stock market, that’s called a correction, not a bear market. It’s not like people have stopped buying guns.

    1. avatar KMc says:

      As a gun store owner, you are wrong. They aren’t buying and it’s not because of the cheap prices.
      A-no threat of takeaways.
      B-no extra fun money.
      YMMV.

      1. avatar frank speak says:

        they’ve got the money…just no urgent need to spend it on guns…..

  10. avatar New Continental Army says:

    This is when you should be stocking up. Don’t wait until the next panic.

  11. avatar Steve Eisenberg says:

    Statistically-speaking, if you compare the number of AR-15 shootings with the number of AR-15s in private hands, the percentage of shooters using AR-15s approaches zero.

    1. avatar frank speak says:

      the truth vs a false narrative….even a lot of politicos own these things…..

  12. avatar Sora says:

    That’s because a lot of sales are now online, they don’t show up at FFL the same day, or AT ALL when you buy from a private person at local postings.

  13. avatar Craig in IA says:

    Maybe we can attribute it to Dick’s Sporting Goods not selling ARs… 🙂

    1. avatar CC says:

      Dicks hasn’t sold AR-15 at Dicks stores since Sandy Hook. About 3% of Dicks stores are “Field and Stream” stores that did

      1. avatar Craig in IA says:

        (Was being sarcastic…)

  14. avatar Geoff says:

    I’m peaked out with guns at 15 rifles and 3 pistols so no need to buy anymore. 6 are C&R on my FFL03, the rest are built from 80% lowers except for the 300BLK pistol with an Anderson lower and 2 – 9mm. pistols. One more 80% lower jigged up on the drill press I need to work on.
    Also have SC CWP so no NICS for me.

  15. avatar CC says:

    Spending by gun owners is likely up.

    During periods of more potential threat to the Second Amendment people are going to buy lower receivers and base model handguns. And if threatened with taxes or extra hasles they will buy ammo.

    During periods of less potential threat people are going to spend on optics, accessories ,holsters, premium guns, premium parts etc.

    The gun busneess is not just gun makers’ sales of serialed frames or lowers (NICS background check items) but everyting from range fees, to ammo, to optics, to accessories and parts — not to mention 80%. As 80% AR was a game changer, the 80% of a P320 FCGF is as well

    Just as the Dems were disadvataged by the fact that their most vulnerable seats were up this time, the GOP will have a hard time defending the Senate in two years at next go around. If Presidents Trump’s approvals are where they are now or lower he likely won’t win. That means we will likly see a Democrat House, Senate and White House incoming 23 short months from today. A year from now this will be more obvious and we will see NICS checks skyrocket.

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