Black Friday Sets Single Day NICS Record, Trump Slump Be Damned

Gun dealer (courtesy masslive.com)

The Trump slump is officially not a thing. Well, at least for one day it wasn’t. Black Friday firearms sales shattered the one-day NICS record, as American gun buyers swooped down on ballistic bargains created by over-optimistic over-production. usatoday.com:

The FBI was flooded Friday with more than 200,000 background check requests for gun purchases, setting a new single day record, the bureau reported Saturday.

In all, the FBI fielded 203,086 requests on Black Friday, up from the previous single-day highs of 185,713 last year and 185,345 in 2015. The two previous records also were recorded on Black Friday.

Yes, but — one day does not a slump relieve. Over at seekingalpha.com, the oddly named Maks F. S. clocks the publicly traded firearms manufacturers’ bloated inventories and wonders Can It Get Worse For Guns And Ammo?

So far in 2017 we have seen double-digit declines in likely sales as represented by the adjusted NICS data and it is only accelerating. All of this comes in light of unprecedented promotional activity which has no end in sight.

The publicly traded companies have only reported the numbers as represented by the better earlier numbers. Is it any surprise then that both Vista and Ruger have lowered forward guidance? Not for me!

While gun owners are rejoicing, gun stock investors should be concerned. All of the pain thus far has come merely from the beginning of the adjustment to normalized numbers, and I do not believe they are there yet.

The law of supply and demand is immutable. Making it the best of times for gun and ammo buyers, and the not-so-great time for gun and ammo sellers.

comments

  1. avatar jwtaylor says:

    The post election slump is massive. It’s just that everything sells at a price. This is a really good time to buy a gun. The deals are great.

    1. avatar Shotgun Sam says:

      Would love to know the breakdown of gun types and calibers. Think more pistols than long guns? Rifles than shotguns? Black vs. wood? Hunting vs. protection? Under $200 vs. Over $1000.

      1. avatar clst1 says:

        Also be interesting to know how many of the 200,000 were purchased as first time buys.

        1. avatar Debi says:

          Also how many approved vs denied

      2. avatar Dyspeptic Gunsmith says:

        You’ll know more in a few months, when you can read the tax filings of the Class 07 FFL’s who have to file excise taxes on newly manufactured guns.

  2. avatar Kenneth G Maiden says:

    Because after 2018 elections, the corrupt lefty progressive slime will likely regain power. RePubs have blown it yet again. Thanks swamp slime. Your hatred of Pres. Trump, has doomed us all.

    1. avatar HP says:

      This. Just wait until the Dems control the Presidency and both houses of Congress again. They’re going to want revenge.

      1. avatar Brandon says:

        Oh you are fucking right we are going to get revenge. We’re going to impeach every last one of your corrupt asshats.

        1. avatar Andrew Lias says:

          Talk about the pot and the kettle.

        2. avatar Big Bill says:

          What a maroon!
          If you’re in power, who will you impeach?
          And for what?

    2. avatar DrewR55 says:

      The Cons don’t want to have control of both houses and the Oval Office because they don’t want to be responsible for making the hard decisions nor do they want to be left holding the bag. In some ways it reminds me of the one time Wiley Coyote caught the Roadrunner and didn’t know what to do next. And the Never Trumpers / RINOs, too.

      Idiots.

      1. avatar tdiimva says:

        The idiots are the #alwaystrumpers who imagine a Trump that is remarkably similar to what the left imagines. The difference being you approve of Trump as dictator while he is actually restoring the balance of power between the branches.

        It is simply amazing that the Second Amendment community led by the likes of the hillbilly with a YouTube channel have convinced themselves that Republicans are just like the Democrats so they will stay home and let the Democrats take over and grab their guns. You people are like toddlers who will hold their breath and pass out when things don’t go 100% your way.

        Republicans aren’t like the Democrats. They don’t march in lockstep with “the leader.” In fact Trump has had more problems with the likes of Senators Cruz, Paul, Lee and the House Freedom Caucus than with the so-called RINOs. The real Trump is a hybrid between George Meany/Tip O’Neal style Democrat and Ronald Reagan. He has more in common with the GOPe than he has with you.

        1. avatar donn says:

          riiiigggghhhhtt. you are so wrong you can’t even see it. Oblivious. Most of the pro 2A people are NORMAL American citizens, ding-dong. I know just as many gun-toting dems as repubs and all are concerned about the left going too far left and taking (yes TAKING) constitutional rights away from Americans. Wake up already!

    3. avatar Chris says:

      Hilarious.
      You lose. The Lefties win. (Maybe. Depends on how many of them are found to have committed sexually indecent and illegal acts…two so far, probably more)

      1. avatar Big Bill says:

        Two?
        So far, just off the top of my head…
        Moore (he was a Dem at the time of the accusations), Bill Clinton (there’s two, right off the bat), Weiner, Wu, Franken. And a sh!tload more I don’t remember.
        Try to keep up.

  3. avatar BLAMMO says:

    Big Green is still in big trouble. And it has nothing to do with the Trump Slump. I takes no time and little money to start manufacturing crapola and even less time for people to realize it.. But it takes a long time and a lot of money to stop making crapola and even longer before people believe it. Neither of which Remington has.

    1. avatar Anymouse says:

      They also have a big debt payment coming up, which they could potentially default on. Their bonds may drop from CCC+ to CCC-. That’s why they’re selling guns for $150 after rebate.

  4. avatar Excedrine says:

    So many guns, so much ammo, prices being so low.. and no money to spare right at this moment. 😛

    1. avatar Ing says:

      Same here. I’d love to take advantage of it, but I can’t.

      I did buy 50 bucks worth of Norma 5.56 ammo for a heck of a price (cheaper than the steel-cased Tula crap) and shoot 20 bucks’ worth of it yesterday, so I’m not totally missing out…but that’s just keeping up with range usage, not getting ahead. I’d be stocking up bigtime right now if I could.

  5. avatar former water walker says:

    Didn’t buy a gun yesterday. Got a “smart” TV. I did pay on a gun layaway so I guess I’m doing my bit for the 2A. And I’ll start caring when they care about my business…

    1. avatar James says:

      That smart tv will be spying on you as long as you are in the room.

  6. avatar WI Patriot says:

    “Black Friday Sets Single Day NICS Record, Trump Slump Be Damned”

    Suck on that shannon watts…

  7. How many of those 4473’s were submitted by committed democrats in order to….. to….. to what ? Start taking shots at elected ‘R’ officials and typical bitter clingers in order to start “it” ?….. to….. to….. to what….. to attempt what will undoubtedly be totally amateur false-flag something in order for MomsDemand and Mikey’sPeeps to look tame in comparison and have almost all media on their side ?

    How many of those just-submitted 4473’s have errors on them on purpose to – this is a quote from the ‘nudge’ people – to try and “overwhelm the system”, like El Guapo and the Totalitarians did with exec orders and reg after reg after reg non-stop for 8 years ?

    No that’s not crazy-talk. The left is continually trying everything and anything they can to “prove” current laws/regs and 2A itself need to disappear, with all weps (except theirs of course) to be confiscated – at gunpoint, of course (oh the irony) – and more.

    But none of that can happen here.

  8. avatar ironicatbest says:

    Well I’ve just bot a new SCAR, a used Colt Gold Cup,and a p08( my girlfriend thought it looked sexy) just because. instant background check wasn’t so instant.. By the time I was cleared to buy the rifle it had become to late to hit the firing range. I’m not going back to that Gun shop, after all of the ammo and firearms I’ve bought from them, I expect better service

    1. avatar tfunk says:

      More than likely the length of the “instant” background check was not the shop’s fault. I’ve been present when my check took 2 minutes and my friend’s took the better part of 45.

  9. avatar Nanashi says:

    I only got ammo and accessories so far. Has anyone seen the M&P22 on sale? None of the ads, even local ones, seem to have it listed (Even for bad prices) making me wonder if they’re going to rebate/2.0 it.

  10. avatar Tom in Oregon says:

    I’ll wait to see what my year end and quarterly bonus checks look like before I buy another gat.
    I’m thinking I need an AR in .458 socom.

    1. avatar Brandon says:

      You should look into the CMMG Anvil and then review it for TTAG.

      1. avatar Tom in Oregon says:

        Good call. Gonna go and look at pricing.

    2. avatar uncommon_sense says:

      I am hoping, dreaming, scheming to acquire an AR-10 in .243 Winchester at some point. Have you ever considered that?

      1. avatar Tom in Oregon says:

        I’ve got a .243 bolt gun. It’s a pre64 Winchester that is a real beauty.
        I built an AR in 6.5 creedmore.

        1. avatar uncommon_sense says:

          An AR in 6.5 Creedmore — sounds like you were thinking along the same lines that I was thinking. I imagine 6.5 Creedmore provides a little more wallop at 400 yards compared to .243 Winchester.

          I like to try and stay with calibers where I am likely to find ammunition even in small town sporting good stores. In terms of rifles, that means I am self-limited to either .223 Remington, .243 Winchester, .270 Winchester, .308 Winchester, .30-06 Springfield, or .30-30 Winchester.

        2. avatar Andrew Lias says:

          You forgot 22-250. I’m working towards the same 243 AR-10 build, can’t wait. Should be a riot. If I don’t do the 243 I’m thinking the 22-250.

        3. avatar uncommon_sense says:

          Andrew Lias,

          My thinking on an AR-10 in .243 Winchester:
          (1) A lot more wallop for hunting or self-defense vs. .223 Remington
          (2) Less recoil than .308 Winchester
          (3) Slightly lower ammunition weight than .308 Winchester
          (4) Nearly the same “stopping power” out to 400 yards vs. .308 Winchester
          (5) Maintains minimum velocity to penetrate Level IIA ballistic vests even farther than .308 Winchester.

          I don’t see where .22-250 would have those advantages other than less recoil and sufficient velocity to penetrate Level IIA ballistic vests at slightly farther range than .308 Winchester.

          Of course it all depends on what you want. In that respect .22-250 could be a great choice for an AR build!

  11. avatar Chris says:

    Eh, I bought some ammo because either shipping was free or whatever and after january we can’t buy any online. The local chain of Turners stores though, one in every city here in california, the ads were terrible this year. I briefly considered the sig sp2022 until I saw how much of an eyesore that slide catch is. Looks like a paper clip or something, it’s too long and for no good reason. Just as happy with two pistols, it would have been another chamber to feed.

  12. avatar uncommon_sense says:

    “… as American gun buyers swooped down on ballistic bargains created by over-optimistic over-production.”

    Well, I did my part. I had no plans to purchase anything. And then I discovered that a local retailer was willing to sell a Savage Axis bolt-action rifle in .243 Winchester with mounts and a cheap scope for $207 (including sales tax, after rebate). I could not help myself.

    Of course the scope is cheap and I will most likely replace it immediately. And the trigger is not spectacular. Nevertheless people who have purchased it claim to shoot 1 inch groups at 100 yards with factory ammunition and that less than spectacular factory trigger. How can I go wrong?

    I am even thinking of keeping it as a trunk-gun. If someone ever steals it, I am only out $207.

  13. avatar MikeJH121 says:

    Thompson Center Compass rifle in 300 win mag is going for under 300 with a 75 mail in rebate. Looks like an okay bolt action. Oh and when you break it down under TC logo it says Smith and Wesson.

  14. avatar Wally1 says:

    True that there are some great deals out there. But why do you think people are buying firearms. It’s not because just the good deals. Because they have a feeling for what is coming. People are sick of being victims and they believe bad things are ahead for America. It is good that people are finally waking up.

  15. avatar BradP says:

    The “Trump Slump” is and has been a myth. Look at the NICS numbers. They are the same or greater (record breaking) than before. That means volume (quantity) is still up. What is down are the prices. So the “slump” is profits. Why is this? Because companies were riding the gun grabber gravy train for the previous 8 years, selling at way more than their products actually cost to manufacturer. Now the capitalist pendulum is swinging back to the consumers side. Many companies will either go out of business or be bought by bigger companies because the gravy train is over. The will have to survive on what the market will pay or go the way of the dodo.

  16. avatar Accur81 says:

    I bought two guns this month, and I’m thinking about adding a Glock 43 with night sights. I’ll be splurging on ammo, too, before CA slams the door on online ammo sales.

    After that, I won’t be buying a gun for a long time. Or ammo..

  17. avatar Chadwick says:

    It should be noted that 200k isn’t the number of firearms purchased that would go through a nics check yesterday. There were a lot good deals that required ordering the firearm and therefore the nics check won’t go through until the firearm is delivered. Hell I even ordered a lower yesterday.

  18. avatar Jim b says:

    i wonder how many will be used it mass shootings of churches or country music concerts.

    1. avatar Scoutino says:

      Statistically zero.
      I wonder how many will be used to defend innocent people from criminal attacks. How many will bring joy on the range or on hunt.

  19. avatar Ralph says:

    My store sold more guns Friday and today (Saturday) than it ever has. I suspected that big volume wasn’t limited to my store because NICS has been a bit slow. So, I’m not surprised that gun sales hit it out of the park.

    Yes, there are bargains to be found, same as it ever was, but nobody is giving the guns away. When Big Green defaults on its indebtedness and goes tits up, the whole industry will benefit. Eventually.

  20. avatar J D says:

    I want to thank you all one last time for the gift that just keeps giving Lets rewind to Nov 21 2008 Strum Ruger stock fell that day to $4.36 a share Learning from an old man back in the 70’s that if you follow a pattern anytime a democrat is in the WH buy gun stock because the politicians have fooled the stoops into believing the Dems will take their guns So I acted Not as much as I would have liked but enough to laugh all the way to the bank at the ignorance and stupidity by buying 1150 shares for just a touch over $5000 plus brokerage fees Little did I know that once you added a black man and racism to the mix it would more than cause the normal activity to go crazy throw that and a couple mass shootings in and you are looking at a heaven send. It took a few years a little over 5 to be exact but on Jan 15th 2014 I sold, the day before Ruger topped out at $84.94 a share My selling price was $84.21 making my initial investment of $5000 and 1150 shares now worth $96,841 and change minus transaction and brokerage fees once settled still left me with $88,321 profit on my money.the real kicker though is during that time I watched the rubes fall for the hype and run out and buy up guns they could not afford with money they did not have only to sell me those guns for a fraction of the cost when the light bill, rent or grocery money was needed and just not there.Today I have a nice collection of guns and ammo So yes by all means keep it up fall for the lies Hell I am cleaning up on bump stocks I gave $99 bucks for that are going for $250 I got a whole $104 in a Browning Sweet 16 because some Merican numb nut just has to have a bump stock and his family heirloom is not as valuable as that Hell yeah i’ll trade you for that man old grand pappys gun dont mean shit iffin I have to protect meself from tearany lol

    1. avatar Excedrine says:

      @crisco kid — We want to thank you one last time for the gift that just keeps on giving. Let’s actually rewind first to July 27, 2014, when this article was published:

      http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2014/07/daniel-zimmerman/seriously-one-wants-take-guns/

      It details pages worth of quotes from politicians, police chiefs, “journalists,” and stupid celebrities that do — as a matter of indesputable fact — want to take our guns away. Stoops like you would rather ignore the hundreds more pages of little blue Twats, rambling FakeBook screeds, and other twaddle speaking exactly to that, but the rest of us aren’t fooled. Little did we know that once you add yet another DemoKKKrat and his racism to the White House that only served to disintegrate race relations that were under his predecessors starting to slowly heal. Throw in a couple of mass shootings that once again stir up the crazy train to Ban-It-Ville — yes, the one lead by your precious DemoKKKratikkk racists — and you have a heaven-send for actual investors. Investors that don’t include you because you’ve never been able to prove to anybody that you are who you claim to be or have ever done what you claim to have done. During that time, we actually watched rubes like you fall for the hype and run out and vote for a candidate that would not win — could not win — and then go absolutely apeshit almost every single day since. Today what you actually have are a nice collection of broken hopes and dreams. So, yes, by all means you keep it up for all the lies. Hell, we’re cleaning up on public opinion because some leftist numbnuts just have to propagandize and the truth is not as valuable as that.

  21. avatar Wally1 says:

    And I thought I did good! I have a new Hero. Congrad’s JD on being able to see ahead and actually act on it.

  22. avatar SteveInCO says:

    Did my bit when I spotted a CZ-75B Omega, to replace my old-and-now-cranky CZ-75B full size.

    I also ended up buying a thousand rounds of 9mm.

    The next day I bought even more ammo, but that was Black Saturday.

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