All in a night's work in Chicago (courtesy chicagotribune.com)

The city of Chicago is home to a large number of people. Over 2.7 million, to be exact. And with a murder rate higher than that of almost any other place in the United States, you’d expect that those murders would be spread out throughout the population. At least, that’s what the central limit theorem would indicate: that you’d see an even distribution of murders over the entire area. But a recent report has shown that to not be the case. In fact, according to the report 70% of all shootings happen within a population of only 107,740 people . . .

From Chicago Magazine:

Papachristos constructs a social network—not a virtual one in the Facebook sense, but a real one of social connections between people—by looking at arrestees who have been arrested together. That turns out to be a lot of people in raw numbers, almost 170,000 people with a “co-offending tie” to one another, with an average age of 25.7 years, 78.6 percent male and 69.5 percent black. It’s also a large percentage of all the individuals arrested: 40 percent of all the individuals arrested during that period.

Within the entire group, the largest component of that whole co-offender group has 107,740 people.

Within the timeframe—from 2006 to 2010—70 percent of all shootings in Chicago, or about 7,500 out of over 10,000, are contained within all the co-offending networks. And 89 percent of those shootings are within the largest component.

The interesting thing about this article is that it provides a new hypothesis for the “gun violence epidemic” that gun control activists are always harping about. Instead of the problem being one of “easy access to guns,” couldn’t the root cause of the problem simply be that a this small group is stuck in an infinite loop of violence and in need of help? Instead of going after guns as a whole, couldn’t we be more effective in targeting specific groups based on this research, short-circuiting the violence before it happens?

The problem is that a solution such as that is far too complex to fit on a poster. Gun disarmament activists can easily say, “it was the guns’ fault,” blaming the object, ignoring the more complex social factors surrounding the events. And then there’s always the convenient cries of racism — since the victims are “1.62 per 100,000 for whites; 28.72 for Hispanics, and 112.83 for blacks” according to the article, focusing on social factors would mean disproportionately targeting minority populations. It’s something that emotion-driven gun grabbers don’t even want to consider.

So 70% of shooting victims can be identified as part of a small social network. As we keep saying, it’s the people — not the guns. Firearms aren’t magical talismans that turn people evil and drive them to commit murders. Those people have other factors — either innate, external or both — that make them act violently. If we can just identify those factors and fix the problems in society, we can eliminate most of those shootings in the future.

But Shannon Watts and those like her prefer to blame the symptom for the disease.

142 Responses to Report: 70142 of Shootings in Chicago Happen Within a Single Isolated Group

  1. Take away the guns and you’ll still see the same savages murdering each other with baseball bats, knives, broken bottles, boards with nails, fists, or whatever is laying around.

    On a similar note, Michael Berry’s weekend Chicago crime report is always a good listen.

    • No, take away everyone’s guns and this small group will still be shooting each other with guns that never got confiscated or turned in.

      • The fact remains that these histrionic panty-wetting libtards need quick, warm and fuzzy solutions to appease their illogical out of control emotions. They have no time for facts because, under stress, these people can’t deal with details. These are the LAST people you want to be helping form domestic policy in the US.

        Great article by the way.

        • Well, it’s not like Shannon and crew travel far enough from their gated white enclaves to have contact with the “icky”people so I’m not sure in what way all this “gun violence” effects her and hers.

          And to be honest, I can’t see that Bloomberg and the other racist lefties in their crew really give a crap about what happens to “those people.”

        • In their defense, its easier for people to come out and say BAN GUNS than it is to say BAN BLACK MALES…

        • I searched in vain for sarcasm or a joke. Tell me you didn’t think that shit was going to slide on by.

        • “In their defense, its easier for people to come out and say BAN GUNS than it is to say BAN BLACK MALES”

          No, it’s that nobody is man enough to say “The war on drugs is racist and just wrong in general, and needs to end.”

        • Its not the color of their skin, but rather that they were raised in an environment with no father figures. Too much of the population of Chiraq is raised in a home where its mom, maybe grandma, the siblings, and maybe a procession of “uncles” none of whom provide a father influence.
          Just like the juvenile elephants in Africa, with out guidance, humans too tend to turn to their worst ways. The first generation and possibly the second had a grandfather/ great grandpa in the picture to provide a small amount of male influence, but dad has been replaced by the EBT card and section hate payment.
          They are dead men walking, bringing mayhem and madness with them on their path to a violent grave.

        • If you think it’s the skin color that is the problem, you are no better than Shannon Watts or liberals that blame guns. That is a happen stance, a symptom of the real problem, the problem is poverty. Poverty creates need, and when crime appears to be the easier way to live, that is the route that is chosen. If you look at the demographics of crime, it’s of those groups that live in more impoverished areas; such as inner city, low value property areas, with little commerce/jobs to generate wealth.

      • No, what Peter was saying is that if ALL guns magically disappeared that this group would still be killing each other. That has been TTAG’s position all along.

    • But Shannon and Co. aren’t interested in taking their guns away; they’re interested in taking OURS. They couldn’t care less about Blacks killing each other.

      Wake me up when Shannon and MDA demonstrate in Southside Chicago.

      • Frankly, that is probably a relatively safe place for them to demonstrate, provided they dress in such a way that doesn’t make it look like they have cash or other valuables on them. Think about it: Who would support gun control more than criminals? Fewer armed citizens and less gun ownership means a lower risk for such predators.

    • Ironic that the liberals and Progressives who social engineered the disaster we now call the “inner city”, employ classic Alinsky tactics of freezing the target: a gun, to deflect the blame that should be placed squarely on their meek shoulders.

    • And with a murder rate higher than that of almost any other place in the United States, you’d expect that those murders would be spread out throughout the population.”

      Lies, damned lies, and statistics. More importantly, either not understanding how the one being analyzed is calculated, or distorting what the important metric is to make some “point”.

      We look at deaths deaths per million miles traveled, obesity per capita, and the only way to actually compare a “murder rate” is as a rate. Not a raw body count.

      In the case of murders, it’s “murder per 100K” population. As such, while Chicago has a high raw number of murders, it’s hardly terribly unsafe in comparison to other places, with a 2013 rate of 7.1 per 100K. There’s just a lot of people in the Chicagoland pool. Nor is it all that bad compared to places where it’s *far* more likely of somebody pulling your card.

      http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/09/26/chicago-not-actually-murder-capital-of-well-anything/

      Please, if we’re going to discuss this, can we analyze the data in a way that wouldn’t get us an “F” in HS level Stat&Prob? This suggestion that Chitown is somehow incredibly statistically dangerous is ‘Mothers Against Everything’ data analysis.

      • I work in statistics.

        Chicago, in terms of core city area is the second most murderous and violent city in the.US, worse yet when you consider the major just discovered undercount of violent crime reported by CPD to the FBI (about 25%) the past few years.

        As CBS hints, Chicago has a jurisdictional outlier of being all of cook county plus quite a few other counties, including suburbs such as Naperviille and even more suburban areas. If you applied the same type of jurisdictional expansion to Houston or Dallas their murder rates/100,000 would be half that of Chicago

        Chicago is in fact an extremely high murder rate city per 100,000 if you control jurisdictional demos

        • ‘What you do for a living’ is logical fallacy number one.

          Not posting any facts is logical fallacy number two. You want to dispute my post, please cite your methodology. I have.

          Number three, seriously, post an argument.

          Number four, that gross number also contains the ‘outliers’…

    • That’s actually pretty easy already. Don’t associate with criminals, and don’t get involved in criminal activity, and your risk of getting shot is pretty damn low.

      • don’t be in a relationship with a domestic abuser either. Hasn’t it been established that something like 90% of homicides involved either gangs, drugs, or domestic abuse?

        • I wonder what percentage the identified violent demographic contributes to the domestic violence totals?

        • I’d be wiling to bet that unless it’s a drone strike, 99% of all homicides are a result of anger stemming from:

          Drugs – someone stole, owes or has drugs someone else wants. Or someone is encroaching on someone else’s drug business or turf.

          Money – same as above.

          Sex – someone wants, had or has someone that someone else’s wants, thought they had or snuck around with.

          Revenge – for any of the above.

          The rest can likely be attributed to the true loons. Or the kind of murder porn television show crap that the Discovery Channel pays it’s bills with these days.

      • I’ve been known to joke about the notion that the lifestyle choices I make, in order to remain eligible for my carry permit, vastly reduce the odds of me needing to draw a gun.

        What with not committing felonies, not committing domestic, alcohol, or drug-related misdemeanors, not USING drugs or alcohol, and not doing crazy $#!+ that would get me locked up in jail or a loony bin, I kind of avoid that “shoot me” demographic.

        • Admirable. However, you aren’t going to live longer. It’s just going to feel a lot longer. /s

  2. It’s tough to make money and gain political power by helping people out of bad situations. It’s easier to capitalize on their plight through misdirection and divisive rhetoric.
    So, no chance of them getting help from the likes of MAIG and Moms Demand Things.

  3. This is some real heyjackass.com stuff (love that site).

    None of this is surprising to me.

    I’ve read analysis’ where it was found that most of the people involved in these incidents were guys with priors shooting other guys with priors. The stats I saw actually showed that the guys getting shot *at* tended to have more extensive records than the shooters (something like 70% to 80%). While some folks might jump right from obscurity to shooters, most climb that hill a step at a time so again, none of this should be surprising.

    Seems to back up the presented stats here.

    This shouldn’t be surprising to the Chicago cops either but going after these types is hard and dangerous work and writing traffic tickets is easier and more lucrative.

    • C’mon. Where would the CPD make their extra donut money if they did start putting their benefactors in jail? You can tell the Chief is on the take, just from his PC speech.

      • Bring in the usual suspects isn’t just a movie line?

        Wasn’t there a movie where the “usual suspects” are all dumped on Staten Island? Add firearms and let them go. Good use for NY, Install Bloomey as king.

      • The misleading part of this lies in the way that Chicago’s gang mechanics work. In some neighborhoods, you’re in a gang whether or not you’ve pledged. Just living on a given street automatically makes you part of the gang of that street. You aren’t given a choice. You walk over to the next street (say, to go to school), you are at risk of being shot. Just. For. Going. To. School.

        And CPS can’t figure out why the truancy rate is so high.

  4. “70% of Shootings in Chicago Happen Within a Single Isolated Group”

    It’s the Wickens, isn’t it?

    I *knew* it.

    • NO, he meant Wickens. One of my room mates is from that family, and he is a murderous sort. Likes big I mean BIG guns as well. (He’s a soldier in an arty battery).
      Personally, I think its Amish from Pennsylvania. Haven’t you seen them on dickscoverage?

  5. this small group is stuck in an infinite loop of violence and in need of help

    Yes, but how would that help the Chicago Machine?

    • Ok, I am guessing thats sarc or a softball… so, here’s my swing-

      The “70% group” in this study ARE the Machine- or more properly, the recruits of the Machine, indirectly, as cannon fodder mostly, that keeps the rest of the host community fearful and needing the police, and the corrupt pols who employ the community organizers to keep the host asleep, while they steer the welfare money, the ebt cards and obama phones to feed the host,
      all while feeding off it, like the fat ticks they resemble- Jesse, Rev Al, Farrakhan, et al.

      The few survivors among the 70% shooters jostle to be the bodyguards, pimps, and debt collectors to them, never realizing they ALL are used by the Prog-tard Plantation owners who laugh behind their hands at them… Emmanuel, Axelrod, Ayers, Clinton, Bloomberg, the Kennedys …
      there is nothing new here.

      Its simple tribalism and the predicable mafia like culture it fosters, when you foster diversity based on separate group identity and self-interest, especially when that group has dysfunctional family values, or worse- an immoral ends justifies the means ethic, informed by the bitter reality of socialism as in ‘you have to break a few eggs to make an omelette’, as its been imported to the US, and upgraded in Progressivism v2.0, “you didn’t make that”, “it takes a village”, “all your kids belong to us”, and “what does it matter anyway”.

      http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-2012/Gangs-and-Politicians-An-Unholy-Alliance/

  6. With everything we can do with regression, statistical and predictive analytic these days you’d like Chicago could sort this out relatively quickly with this information. But then I guess we’d need to find something else to ban.

  7. I’ve commented and observed that Chiraq’s problem has long stemmed from a fundamentally feral culture of a relatively small demographic within the city. Of course, when I pointed that out to CNN they deleted my comment as being purportedly racist. Which merely proved my point, of course. This core group really is composed of a bunch of animals, simple as that. Problem is, they never learned how to behave and no one ever bothered teaching them how. So we get what we have here. And I don’t like it any more than you men.

    My sympathies have long since run out and as long as people like Rahmmy boy and McCarthy threaten me, however distantly, I say they can stew in their own juices permanently. They can deal with this problem – they just don’t want to. They would rather wage a cultural war instead. What’s that saying about all culture wars being to the death, now?

    Tom

    • Don’t forget that Rahmmy boy and McDrunkard are very effectively insulated from ANY incursion into reality in Chiraq.

    • And how many of these feral creatures are the products of single mother ‘families’? Bill Cosby was right. The Fed.gov is complicit in promoting baby mama families and making it comfortable for baby mamas. You need to shove their (son’s) nose in the s*** and beat their a** until they get the message, and baby mamas can’t do it. won’t do it. Word to baby mamas: Don’t do the deed with jackwagons that won’t be dads. I know, howling into the tornado…

  8. I forget if it was Jeff Cooper or Elmer Keith who pointed out that this is a problem which takes care of itself. I notice that the mainstream media cannot bring itself to mention race in what passes for reportage these days — and it’s important in understanding what is happening.

    Push past the blue-sky it’s-a-small-world-after-all melting pot fantasy and examine the cold-hard-steel facts. Oh, my, I hope we don’t encounter anything that isn’t Politically Correct! God knows that’s gotten me banned from more than one web site.

    • Jeff Cooper even suggested that since these thugs rarely hit innocents and their warfare is internicine, perhaps the best policy would be to see that they are well-supplied with ammo.

    • No actually it doesn’t solve itself, because I would bet that most of these men have already fathered several children by the time they reach the average age of ~25 – and they’re definitely not sticking around to help raise their spawn, who grow up raised by a poor single mother, and eventually turn to crime. The process continues anew.

  9. Is this surprising to any mature sound minded citizen? The same can be shown to be true in New Orleans, Houston, Atlanta, and other cities. Law enforcement in my small town, headed by our Police Chief gathered all information on various crimes committed, and pinpointed areas where they were being committed and assigned resources there and did not waste money putting officers all over town. Crimes went down, and down, and down. He was able to save much money on his budget and provide good law enforcement. Maybe other towns should follow our Police Chief’s pattern of law enforcement and crime prevention.

  10. I call bullsh!t. I am sure Shannon would love to go, alone, at night, and spread the Gospel of Disarmament to the (unwashed) masses. or not.

    and until she holds one of her silly rallies in the ‘hood, I will call her for what she is: A RACIST

    mods can delete it all they want, but let’s stop dancing around the issue – Shannon wants people of color disarmed so (a) they can be controlled better and (b) they won’t show up on her block or heavens forbid, (c) they go to her kids’ private school. Yes, I said it.

        • I said same statement above but to her on twitter. TTAG does not control Twitter.
          We moderate posts here because we don’t need to give them more ammo.
          Statement above by you is well thought out actually. It makes sense. Why wouldn’t she go to “The Hood” and protest there. I mean that is where the violence is happening right?
          I mean come on, she could hang with Al, and Jessie, and Luis! Spread the word of victimization to all!

    • I am not sure why they would delete the comment. Your comment has a historical basis going back well over 100 years. Gun control has a history of being a tool of racism. 10 seconds of research bears this out.

    • I actually had a “debate” with someone this week who demanded that the NRA go into urban violent neighborhoods and “march in the street” to demand that they practice gun safety. He said it “was the NRA’s responsibility.”

      He was obviously half-trolling, but when I asked him why MDA and MAIG don’t do it instead – since that is EXACTLY their slated goal of preventing “gun violence,” he repeatedly ducked the question.

      This question should be asked of EVERY MDA/MAIG/Everytown person. If their goal is reducing “gun violence”, why aren’t they taking their message direct to gangsters in the inner city?

      The most they ever do is stand in front of city hall or a courthouse, with a secured press conference setting, and get a couple of “moms” whose gangster sons were shot.

    • I have to disagree, Dirk. I don’t think they care one little bit about black-on-black killings. If it went away, she’d have to look for a new job. Murder and mayhem are Shannon’s bread and butter.

    • She’ll hold one in the hood, all right; if she were to hold one of her rallies in Chicago, it would consist of her and her tens (ones) of followers standing near a store on the Magnificent Mile. ‘Cause she keeps it real like that.

  11. LEGALIZE. DRUGS. You want to make a huge number of people “not criminals” in one fell swoop? Remove the impetus for violence? Take away the family and community destroying impacts of mass incarceration of young men? Free up resources in the city to give back (or put to productive use)? LEGALIZE DRUGS. Didn’t these people learn in the 20s?

    • All drugs? At once? So should gas stations be able to sell $10 meth shots next to the 5 Hour Energy? Should energy drink manufacturers be able to lace their drinks with whatever stimulants they want? I’ve got a meth head brother-in-law and I’d have a hard time believeing that society will be safer with it legalized.

      I know the legalize drugs band wagon is a popular meme to jump on as of late, but these things were outlawed for a reason. You can’t say that there wouldn’t be societal consequences to pay. At least make it a State issue as per the 10th Amendment so we can observe what happens state by state.

      • As long as it’s not harming others, why not. All the street-level dealers would have to find a new job, because commercial production would make for drugs much cheaper than the street dealers could sell them for.

        As long as they can’t get welfare for being unemployed drug dealers, that is.

    • That’s simply not going to happen without some MAJOR LEAGUE social upheaval, and the underlying problem can be said with two words:

      Asset Forfeiture.

      Drug enforcement is too much of a cash cow for ANY politician to give it up completely.

      Add to that the fact that the drug culture represents at convenient boogeyman to justify all sorts of ill-conceived, but power centering, decisions and to those “in charge,” there is not impetus to change the status quo.

  12. And 90%, according to the police chief in Oakland. Yup 90% of all homicides are gang related. Most of those gang members also fall into a small demographic as well. But why bother with beating around the bush here.
    If people won’t take action on their own to clean up their neighborhoods, don’t expect the government to do it for you. Least without living in a police state.

    • Going to be hard without some government effort. One of the biggest factors is the shitty school system, controlled by the teachers’ unions. But since dems get money from the teacher’s unions, the urban pols are going to do everything they can to keep the unions in power and force as many kids as they can into the public schools.

        • True. And even if everything else were fixed, bad homes would still be more likely to produce irresponsible kids than good homes.

  13. Some people never pick up a history book. These statistics have been repeated over and over again since ( to my personal knowledge) the 60’s. The Shannon Watts of the world could care less. She is all about her “15 minutes of fame” than she is about gun control. With the other true motivations, power,and money, that truly drive most people like her.

  14. Read a great article that discussed stop and frisk practices for public safety and how many people think they are unconstitutional. The writer went on to say that in the name of public safety, every person who boards an airplane consents to the same unconstitutional search of their body and belongings ALL IN THE NAME OF PUBLIC SAFETY. The 25 year old Chicago black men who represent 70% of the shootings, have earned the right to be stopped and frisked in the name of publis safety!!!!!

    • Good point. The numbers show the improvement/decrease in NYC crime with “Stop and Frisk.” Trouble is, it’s still an Unreasonable Search. For now.

      See, if you’re conducting the operation in an area of high crime, where a majority of residents are low income, low opportunity welfare-supported Democrats, then you’re wide open to a charge of racial profiling. That’s the sad truth.

    • Taking a plane is an option. Having to get from Point A to Point B on city streets isn’t nearly so optional.
      Street stop-and-frisks are a clear violation of the Fourth Amendment, which you seem to have no respect for, so why should we believe you’re a Second Amendment supporter?

  15. This “infinite loop” will not be broken because politicians need it in order to disarm everyone else.

  16. I think i’m smarter just for reading that… Had Chicago a functioning chief of police and a politic that was actually interested in lowering crime, this kind of info could make a huge difference.

  17. Most of these folks live in squalor on the West and South sides of Chicago.

    They live at the mercy of Leftist welfare/handout policies with generations of young men having no ambition, no direction and no motivation to do anything for themselves in a sub-culture where people are rewarded for ensuring that no man live with any woman or stay and be a father to his kids.

    Do tell me on what planet are these people set up for success? It really is no wonder there is so much crime in Chicago and that it’s centered directly on these folks.

    Yet, somehow, Capitalism is painted as evil.

    • After several generations of living in squalor, explaining Capitalism and self reliance to these folks is like trying to explain nuclear physics to a Stone Age tribe.

  18. Love is the answer. Just kidding. All of this data will be ignored. Just like section 8 housing moves crime into middle class neighborhoods.

    What would be interesting….that loud mouth Lt blaming guns, takes this data and does the Fallujah Flush.

  19. But blanket legislation is way easier to craft and pass than actually finding solutions to criminal behavior!

  20. None of those objects are as efficient as a gun – I mean, you just can’t kill as many people with a bat.

    Anyway, the premise is silly, because you simply cannot take away the guns. You could repeal the 2nd Amendment and then ban all civillian ownership of firearms, but there would still be tens of millions of already illegal guns on the streets, and there would be tens of millions of new guns promptly smuggled in. If we cannot stop the flow of millions of illegal border-crossers and kilotons of smuggled drugs, how can anyone think that there would not be a massive importation of illegal guns. Right now, pace Leeland Yee, there is little smuggling of guns into the US, because most of them are made here. That would change in a heartbeat if the market changed – we’d be awash in cheap Norincos smuggled in by the Mexican cartels.

  21. Clive Bundy has the solution.

    Send them back to the plantations as slaves where they will live happy lives with their families, raising chickens and vegetable gardens.

    Smirk.

      • How about jailing the psychopathic sociopathic bloodthirsty drug warmongers who are making an insane, illegal, unconstitutional, unwinnable war on the entire black race, with collateral damage amongst non-neocon white, brown, and beige people?

  22. When I was a reserve deputy back in the early 90’s there were 17 murders in the county. Similar stuff, drug disputes, gang disputes, criminals killing criminals. The Sheriff actually publicly stated that 14 of them where NHI, No Humans Involved. I would bet that nationwide, around 70% of murders today are NHI.

  23. The result is statistically unsurprising, since we’ve long known that in a region the crime-commiting social and ethnic demographic is holds fairly steady year to year. We’ve known that demographic for Chicago for many years.

    At the very least what we do know about the central limit theorem is that it has nothing to do with whether you expect a larger fraction of Chicago residents to be involved.

    What the CLT does mean is that, other conditions unchanged, if the rate per 100K was a reported sample mean, and the sampling was performed many many times, the distribution of the sample means would form a normal distribution.

  24. If 70% of gun violence was caused by NRA members, they would wage an endless campaign to shame and demonize us, to blame us for every HEY WAIT A MINUTE!!!

  25. It’s even worse than they say. The latest horror at 900 w. Garfield Blvd was a 26year old uncle giving his 14year niece a revolver to shoot another 14year old girl. Over a boy on Facebook. And the revolver didn’t work on the 1st shot so he helped shoot her in the BACK. NO DEATH PENALTY IN ILLINOIS either. I avoid huge swaths of the city. I have to make $ in Chicago tomorrow. Sure hope I don’t break down.

  26. not really a new theory. It’s actually been known for a long time (it’s the theory behind Kennedy’s Ceasefire initiative)) – most crime done by a small group, just took Facebook to better quantify it.

    Pretty sure if you dug into it, this core group represents the core of pseudo-organized crime and drug distribution.

    Problem is the money. Even if you locked up all 170k, there would be another 170k willing to make a buck and willing to shoot someone to do it.

  27. Because this group is a bunch of criminals they want to punish everyone with bs gun laws? How about they stay in jail after their first serious arrest so they can’t rack up 5 cases while out awaiting trial. i constantly see ppl in the phila newspaper arrested for very serious crimes yet they are awaiting trial or are on probation/parole at the same time. Seems like that would be a good start to actually enforce the laws that we currently have.

  28. Well written Nick. I am so tired of the PC forced on this country by the media.
    We know now and have know for years who is killing who. In cities large and small is it mostly black on black crime. These are the liberal voter base so of course they can’t be blamed.
    The liberals will never admit that they have exploited the black community for votes, not caring one bit what happens to them. Esp with Obama. He rode the racism train all the way to Washington, then he did nothing for the people who put him there, or anyone else other than his statist progressive donors.
    He pretended he was black long enough to get the votes.
    Just north of me, In Chattanooga, TN the same thing is happening. Black on Black thug murders. 25-30 a year all in a small section of the city.
    Same thing in Atlanta. Same small section. Guess who lives there. Same thing in super safe gun control Chicago..

    This needs to be our focus. Lets look at WHO, Then WHY…NEVER WHAT.

  29. Broken window approach. It changed New York, it can change Chicago. It is proactive, but a lot of work requiring dedicated cops and saturation of high-crime areas. Probably even work for Detroit. But, hey, what do I know… I’m just a Sociology and Psychology teacher with hours of Criminal Justice experience and close friends in law enforcement. And the ability to read and use Google. Good luck, Chicago!

  30. This study brings into sharp focus what a lot of people have been saying for years. Not much of a surprise, but good to quantify the particular instance of Chicago.

  31. I won’t be too critical of the Chicago PD for not cracking skulls on this group. Imagine the political heat that would come down on the officers who tried to clean that up.

    • Which would be because of COWARDS in Chi-Town government. Starting with Rahm the Emmanuel. Jesus called, he wants his Emmanuel back, you corrupt sack of Obama.

  32. This is where the whole problem comes from – the lack of it for generations now:

    “There is no doubt that it is around the family and the home that all the greatest virtues, the most dominating virtues of human society, are created, strengthened and maintained.” Winston Churchill

  33. Thanks Nick for this article. You inspire me as a perfect example of the one of the survivor set of Millenial’s, raised with the innertubz, inured to vapid marketing by Disney, and jaded by the foolishness even a kid can comprehend at public schools for PC rules, who can now more easily understand reality, and see thru the propaganda masquerading as news in the StateRunMedia.

    Sad and too bad the authors in Chicago Magazine can’t call an obvious spade a spade, but then that would be non-PC and as academics they would NEVER see a grant again, in the heavily politicized state of academia today.

    Then there are those po-mo tranzi-nazi Foucaultians whose heads are so far up their anal tract their hearts are beating their brains out. “globalization”! “social justice” “speak truth to power” “whats the narrative, mel?” (ok that last was just me being weird)

    http://gangresearch.net/Archives/hagedorn/articles2.html#chi

    All I can say about Chicago is “who’s got the popcorn?”

  34. One more observation- I wonder what these two “guys” really think of themselves when they wake up in the night and look in the mirror.

    Both obviously skirting the obvious, in “Whet’s” case as a young English Lit major, in a new job running the website, hoq he has to prove how hip and smart he is talking about the numbers, while carefully tap dancing around the obvious, maybe thinking to himself what his Bubbe would say, with a growl, about “these schvartzers… Cosby was right!”

    And ….the “I’m so smart number cruncher, Papachristo- who I can’t really believe he believes his suggestion that since the numerical data is so concentrated, that the real-world solution is going to be easy, short-time. Hmmm. Sounds like he is angling for some Open Society Soro’s money – crank up a hockey stick or two to prove taking away guns will work – whats scientific method got to do with it when we are talking a few hundred in grant money, hey?

    Ok, Rain-Man- tell me again how long the tribes of the Middle East have been fighting- lets just pick two to make it simple- you know, concentrated, one little area, on one little question- is it the grandkids of Mo, or the most evil con-men (oops I mean Imam) who get to say who gets their 72 raisins, and for what? Like since the 7th century? Hows that work out for your hypothesis of easy short solutions on human behavior?

  35. Good God, y’all! Stop it the progressive/liberal attacks. We are gun owners, period. I don’t care if you oppose gay rights or hiking the minimum wage (must… fight… political posts!). Bottom line, we MUST bind together, or we’re all screwed. Let the issues with “them homersexuals” go, at least for now. Without the right to bare arms, you’re complaints merely fall on deaf and well-armed ears that simply don’t care what you have to say.

    • “Without the right to bare arms,”

      Depending upon the type of dress, you can still do this, even in the classiest restaurants.

  36. So, someone published a study that confirmed what even the most cursory examination of arrest, incarceration and homicide date reveals? Good deal if it leads anywhere, but the same conclusion has been arrived at, albeit more generally many times before.

    What this study seems to do is narrow the parameters. Basic incarceration and homicide data already told us that a relatively small percentage of the population was responsible for a large majority of all crime and disproportionately of violent crime. It also revealed who this demographic was: African-American males aged 15-35 with at least one felony conviction and living in a densely populated and economically disadvantaged portion of a major metropolitan area that was disproportionally populated by other African-Americans. Ever bit of that could have been and often has been extrapolated from available information from official sources with nothing more than Google and a calculator.

    This has narrowed the results to a single city and further to a few problematic neighborhoods but it’s not really telling us anything new and is highly unlikely to result in a single initiative or policy change since all this information was already widely available and frankly quite nearly self-evident.

    What’s needed are solutions. We know what the problems are and have since at least the late 1960’s; dense concentrations of culturally insular minorities who are economically disadvantaged with all that comes with it (lack of local opportunity for legitimate advancement/sustenance and low value placed on education/legitimate success).

    Various schemes have been proposed that would theoretically result in massive and unprecedented drops in crime rates, many of which have been extremely tongue in cheek, such as relocation, adoption of the problem demographic into families outside the demographic, mass incarceration and, more recently, ‘nuking from orbit’. Obviously these are all outside the realm of possible, desirable, legal and or ethical, but what sort of actions or changes might actually work?

    I’m not convinced that ending prohibition would eliminate the problem as the poverty, ignorance and lack of local opportunity would still be present. Simply offering jobs won’t/can’t work since the target population possess a cultural disdain for legitimate success and moreover lack anything like job and life skills that would enable them to succeed in the first place. Job training and educational programs are just as problematic and for many of the same reasons; when the culture doesn’t value work or education there is little motivation for the problematic demographic to engage.

    I suspect that any effective solution is actually impossible in the current climate. Given that the solution must be extrinsic to the demographic at hand most solutions would be regarded as racist and never given a chance to succeed or even to be tested. The notion that race has nothing to do with the problem but that the local culture does is considered naïve on one hand and disingenuous and still racist on the other. It’s as if no one actually wants to solve the problem, though for very different reasons.

    I further suspect that if a solution is ever found it will be both radical and extremely one sided. That is, it will be something considered impossible given the current social and political climate and it will be effected unilaterally by one political party or another who happens to have temporary majority control and the will to use it to alter the dynamic.

    A potential solution:

    Mandatory relocation of repeat offenders away from urban areas upon release from incarceration coupled to stringent educational and employment requirements during long periods of parole and with stiff sentences equating to banishment for those who will not or cannot comply. Coupled to this, huge economic incentives for employers to hire and train those from the demographic and to locate near them while tax or other incentives are offered to encourage participation. With heavy propaganda aimed at changing the prevailing attitude and a revamp of public assistance models to promote education, work and eventual self sufficiency.

    I realize it’s riddled with problems and pitfalls, is open to charges of racism, and contains portions which would be enough to inflame the left and right equally and thus stands no chance of ever being enacted in toto and cannot work as a piecemeal approach and is thus doomed to failure.

    However were it implemented I suspect that within 2-3 generations the criminality of the demographic would be drastically reduced.

  37. Ah! Greetings my fellow 21st Century Intellectuals! I must say, this is quite possibly the most enthralling discussion I have ever read. Such brilliant minds, my peers! To see, that somewhat by chance, the meetings of minds occur and finally we have, as to the basis to assert the great Un-Truths, and Sophistries, of our age–Why, it is absolutely invigorating–I must say! Please, do carry on, good chaps!

  38. Nick, did you miss this part all the way at the end?

    “One last example: the Brady Bill, from the early ’90s, everyone wanted that to be a gun-violence reduction program. And it actually did almost nothing for gun violence, but it did a whole hell of a lot for gun suicides. Some people say that’s a failure; I say that’s a great success because there are more suicides than homicides. It didn’t have the intended effect, but it had very dramatic effect on another form of violence.”

    Since most criminal violence involves planning and not passion, that feel-good bill did not work as intended, but it sure made lefties feel good, like they did something. It’s always about doing something because it feels good, never the right thing because it is good. Suicides aren’t flashy. They involve individual choice. There’s no boogeyman that politicians can hold up or point to as the root of all evil. It won’t get them elected.

  39. Meanwhile,while you are working on that Al Sharpton,who by the way owes 2.5million in taxes(no swat teams at his ranch just Bundy’s) and Jesse Jackson will make sure that this sector of Chicago is not profiled,guilty,but not profiled! Like I said before hundreds of CCW classes and thousands of highly trained ,legal armed citizens,is all that will curbe the violence meet force with legal force. Get rid of that idiot mayor and especially his twice as idiotic superintendent McCarthy.those lamos are fighting the US Constitution with their antigun BS and trying to deny a citizens right to self defense with their”just wait and get killed until we get there” attitude.Stupid is as stupid does!

  40. This is stuff that all of us Chicagoans have known for a long, long time. It’s funny when people talk as though just living in Chicago is tantamount to suicide. Chicago is actually reasonably safe outside of a few really bad neighborhoods.

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