Relax, An Assault Weapons Ban Is Still Unlikely


Would it be possible for a new AWB to see the light of day? Well, anything’s possible, but likely? Not really. In the senate there’s a small chance that they might move enough R senators to get it through (although there are Ds in the senate who come from pro-gun states and who are only in office because guns weren’t a major issue when they were running.) But in the House, you’d have to have a majority of reps who believed so strongly in the necessity of a gun ban that they would be willing to sacrifice their careers to get it implemented.  How likely is that? . . .

Again, I’m not talking about the screamers in the media, the stuffy aristocrats who are accustomed to lecturing us low-brow cretins who think we need to own guns (and doing so from within their gated communities or downtown offices protected by armed guards.)

I’m talking about the people who would actually have to write the laws and who would have to face the anger of the voters in 2014 when they are all up for re-election.

There is another dynamic at work here: People who are pro-gun tend to be much, much more committed to the gun issue than people who are anti-gun.

For people who are anti-gun, outside of a small core of Brady types, being anti-gun is simply one political viewpoint in a whole suite of political issues that motivate them (abortion rights, economic “fairness”, environmental issues, foreign policy, energy policy, etc.) By the time the elections roll around in 2014 most of the ardent anti-gunners will have moved on to another pet issue.

Pro-gunners, by contrast, are much more likely to be one-issue voters. They’re also more likely to organize, to support opposing candidates, to join organizations like the NRA, JPFO, GOA, etc., when they think their rights are threatened. And they have long, loooong memories (Clinton even said that it was likely his anti-gun stance that cost Al Gore the election in 2000.)

So while we will undoubtedly put up with several weeks of bloody-shirt-waving from the anti gunners, by the time the new Congress gets down to business, you can bet that gun control will not be a top item. The President may try to tweak the current laws around the edges via EO, and some local governments (or states) may tighten gun control laws, but I don’t really see any likelihood of any major federal gun controls. There simply is no benefit to congresspeople to vote for one and there are huge, huge liabilities.