Asymmetric Warfare in Syria by Robert Farago | Sep 01, 2012 | 27 comments facebook twitter linkedin email [HTML1] comments jwm says: September 1, 2012 at 12:24 yes, determined people can resist superiour military forces. look what happened at stalingrad, what’s still happening in afghanistan. superiour air power becomes very expensive and often irreplaceable targets sitting on the ground. and tank crews hate operating in cities, theirs too many ways to die there and most of them involve burning to death. Reply Viper26 says: September 1, 2012 at 12:32 Stalingrad is not really a good analogy here, but overall your premise is sound. Will, for lack of a better term, will always win out over material as long as the side with the better material refuses to use ALL available means to win. And since our Western “morality”, which the other side neither understands nor cares about, prevents us from doing Everything Neccessary to break that Will, we are destined to lose 4GW insurgency’s until we learn that lesson. Reply Viper26 says: September 1, 2012 at 12:27 Why is this surprise to anyone? We already know that the Syrians are organized, equipped, and trained by the Former Soviet Union Russians, and the Insurgents are backed by the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran and it’s proxys (Hamas and Hezbollah). Via Iran, it also means the Insurgents are backed by China. The Syrians still use the Russian model, which is Western Warfare based (similer to our own) while the Insurgents are using the Chinese Eastern model…………Clausewitz vs Sun Tsu. The Insurgents are also being helped by their understanding of and use of a willing and sympathetic media and 4th Generation Warfare. Make no mistake, the Insurgents are using the same tactics that pushed us to stalemate in Iraq, drove the Israelis out of Lebanon, will drive us out of Afghanistan, and have been developed over thousands of years in wars in Asia. It makes ZERO sense for us to get sucked into this mess. Our best hope is that they kill enough of each other to give us breathing room to be prepared for when the MB, Iran, and all their proxy’s move against Israel. Hopefully, it will also give us time for the Top-down mentality US Military leaders to get their heads out of their asses and figure out that while our method of Conventional Warfare is unrivaled, we suck ass at 4GW and Counter Insurgency. Reply matt says: September 1, 2012 at 13:55 Our best hope is that they kill enough of each other to give us breathing room to be prepared for when the MB, Iran, and all their proxy’s move against Israel. Why should America give a shit about Israel but no other country? If they Jews think they’re so bad ass, then at the very worst they can repeat the Masada. Reply إبليس says: September 1, 2012 at 17:29 Why would Shia groups like Hezbollah support an insurgency against a Shia ruler like Assad? That makes zero sense at all. You’re lumping groups together that hate eachother. Let Israel handle it’s own affairs for once. The Middle East is one big clusterf*ck of psy-ops…Islamic taqiyya and Jewish mesirah. They’ll all lie to your face 24/7/365 in the name of their ancient hatreds. Honestly I love my Arab heritage but don’t get dragged into that mess’o’potamia. No American blood should ever be soaked up the sands of Asia Minor. Reply Viper26 says: September 2, 2012 at 10:37 For the same reasons that they play BOTH sides in Iraq and Afghanistan. You know damn well that a new state the Iran can control (Shia or Sunni) is better then a Shia one they can’t. How many times have we seen opposed groups cooperate together against a bigger enemy, only to devolve into fighting amongst themselves when it was “over”? Don’t float that BS to me, Scribbles. And if Syria falls, you know Turkey and Jordan are next. And don’t forget that this is NOT just about Islam, but Persian Nationalism as well Reply إبليس says: September 2, 2012 at 11:18 I’d love to see your evidence of “them” playing both sides of the Syrian conflict. For what reasons would a new Sunni state accept being controlled by big bad Iran? Especially with so many established Sunni powers that could use a new ally? Why would Turkey fall? Turkey isn’t dominated by a repressive minority sect. Turks don’t really have much to rebel against. Or maybe the ultra-secret Persian majority in Turkey will revolt and establish a Persian ethnostate LOL. Michael B. says: September 1, 2012 at 13:23 Every time I hear a Syrian rebel yell “ALLAHU AKBAR!” I think to myself: “Yeah, that’s totally a dude we should give a ton of American weapons and support to. What could possibly go wrong?” Reply Luc says: September 1, 2012 at 15:01 All muslim forces throughout the world yell that out continually in combat doesn’t matter what side there on. American money & weapons shouldn’t go to anyone in the middle east that doesn’t have the same values as it. Reply Jean Paul says: September 1, 2012 at 15:51 You mean like we do in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain? Reply Anon in CT says: September 1, 2012 at 22:43 At least they pay full price. And the Saudis are so incompetent that they neglect the gear to death, ad then have to buy more. Luc says: September 3, 2012 at 20:48 I know what I was said was just wishful thinking. MotoJB says: September 1, 2012 at 13:24 I hope they overthrow and string up Al-Assad. Reply Joe Grine says: September 1, 2012 at 14:15 Gotta love the SPG-9. Just sayin. Reply jkp says: September 1, 2012 at 14:39 I used to listen to StratFor. Then they predicted that there would be a Chinese move against Taiwan in the 2000’s. It didn’t happen. And they never owned that error. Reply Jean Paul says: September 1, 2012 at 15:50 So, we supported the overthrow of Mubarak—and now Egypt is run by the Muslim Brotherhood, who have already started implementing repressive Sharia law. We supported the overthrow of Qadaffi, and now the Muslim Brotherhood/Al Qaeda are slaughering black Libyans and planning to implement Sharia law. We are supporting rebels in Syria, who are Muslim Brotherhood/Al Qaeda. Iraq was a fairly secular state under Hussein, just like these three countries. Egypt, Libya, and Syria are NOT like Saudi or Iran. They are also fairly secular. Did they have “brutal dictators”? Yes, but like Iraq, the dictators’ brutality was necessary to keep radical Islamists at bay. When given an opportunity for democracy, these people will choose the most hardcore Islamist, then the rights of the minority of the population(Christians, Jews, women) go out the window. Reply irock359 says: September 1, 2012 at 16:02 This video illustrates why the level of insurrection we see against Syrians government is unlikely to happen here in America. The rebels are well armed and trained to use heavy weapons, the kind of machinery that is nigh on impossible to get here in the states in significant numbers to effect a rebellion. There may be 300 million firearms in the U.S. but only a small portion of those firearms are serious defense/offensive weapons. You can’t arm a fighting force with bolt action deer rifles, wheel guns and Ruger 10/22’s. Armed insurrection on this scale requires backing and training that very few countries are capable of. Billions of dollars have gone into arming and training the Syrians, and granted there are plenty of countries willing to do the same for us, however the U.S.’s geographic isolation from most of those countries limits the point of infiltration of arms. Our military arms are far more advanced than the Syrians and have a much further reach and the weapons required to counter these weapons are limited to the permanent members of the UN Security council. Not to mention that Syria is roughly the size of Florida. Asymetric Warfare is something that seriously being discussed and trained for by the next generation of military leaders. Border security will be paramount after we get our troops out of the middle east. Any conflict in the United States will be small and isolated, easily cut off from foreign help and the rest of the U.S. Reply PT says: September 1, 2012 at 17:43 “There may be 300 million firearms in the U.S. but only a small portion of those firearms are serious defense/offensive weapons. You can’t arm a fighting force with bolt action deer rifles, wheel guns and Ruger 10/22′s.” Good thing the most popular rifle in the USA is the AR15. In every police department across America there are loads of military grade weapons and ammo. Remember all those Bearcat vehicles the Pentagon was giving away for free? Do you think all of those munitions and vehicles would be 100% totally secure in an insurrection type situation? Reply Jay Dunn says: September 1, 2012 at 17:58 Why bother with police junk? There is an army reserve arsenal not two miles from where I am sitting right now. Fort Knox is about 20 miles farther down the road although they might put up more of a fuss if a few citizens wanted to borrow some supplies. Reply matt says: September 2, 2012 at 00:04 Not the most secure facilities either. Remember that guy in LA who stole a tank from a reserve arsenal and went on a rampage about 10 years ago? jwm says: September 2, 2012 at 00:47 in any civil war situation in this country you will have fracturing of the military. some will stay loyal to the governmwent and some will side with the “rebels”. that’s if it’s a national level event and not some local thing on the order of katrina. i don’t believe it will come to that, but i’m sure a lot of folks thought the same thing in 1860. if i remember correctly the guy that stole the tank used a simple set of bolt cutters to get through the fence and cut a padlock off the tanks hatch. if memory serves he was x military also. matt says: September 2, 2012 at 01:31 For a national level event, what about the end of EBT cards, or a sharp increase in regulations such as mandatory drug testing? Viper26 says: September 2, 2012 at 10:42 You guys forget that USAR and ARNG armories only hold weapons…..not bulk ammo. And the heavy vehicles like tanks are usually pooled at major bases, not armories. The few tanks there will usually only have a little fuel in them, not full tanks. Hope you have a plan to get through the uparmored vehicles like MRAPS that would appear in large quantities on our streets in your scenario……….. jwm says: September 2, 2012 at 12:44 as i said viper26 i’m not seeing this scenario come to pass but if it does i hope you’re not saying we shouldn’t try to fight back. i see that your handle ends in 6. in my day that call sign meant the man in charge. remember to lead by example. ST says: September 1, 2012 at 19:18 Armies are designed to fight other armies. A group of 10 guys with 30-06 rifles and the skill to use them at 100+ yards can and will stop a 100 man force with AR’s. One sniper can hold up an armed unit, much less ten of them encamped in random locations. Bad things happen to a massed unit’s morale when people are dropping left and right from large caliber rifle wounds. Line soldiers, for the most part, are only taught the basics of weapon use and aimed fire in a teamwork situation. Those tactics don’t work when the OPFOR is using aimed fire from outside the effective range of the M4’s said troops would be using. Reply OHgunner says: September 1, 2012 at 16:13 America needs to fix home first. Stay out of the middle east, Asia and Europe. Take care of the US, and do some work to fix Mexico’s clusterfuck of a country because they share a border with us, therefore problems there spill onto our land. The rest will take care of themselves and are too far away to be of consequence as far as military action goes. Quit arming these hopeless causes that always come back to bite us in the butt. Reply ExNuke says: September 2, 2012 at 12:11 Why would anyone want to go head to head with the military anyway? The grunts are the tools, they don’t determine what the policy is this week or set the ROE (for their side). Unlike most serious Transnational Progressives I can’t see getting angry at the saw that cut the board too short. Why do you think Bloomberg pushes so hard for gun bans? Look at him and the cronies that he “allows” to be armed. Why do the really rich and politically active need round the clock protection? His “private army” has at least a company of troops tied up with trying to protect ONE MAN and his property 24/7 and he is still terrified and scurries from place to place like a rat in a place with too many cats. How effective will the Government be when DC turns into a “Green Zone” guarded by paid “security contractors” because the politicians don’t trust their own troops? It was Clinton’s “executive order” that disarmed the troops in CONUS for “safety”. Whose safety, the soldiers at Fort Hood? Why is Nancy Pelosie so outspoken and scared of .50 Cal. Rifles? It couldn’t have anything to do with her limousine only being armored up to .308 and her personal security only being good out to maybe 50 yards? All the tanks, stealth bombers, cluster bombs, MANPADs, machine guns or any other weapon system is useless unless you have a target. We’re not going to give them a target, we don’t need to, they isolate themselves more and more every day. They will either render themselves totally ineffective hiding under their beds or they will figure out that if they would just leave us alone there would be a lot less chance that they will piss off some lunatic enough to make a target of themselves. Disclaimer: I’m old, my eyesight is poor and I will never knowingly get within 500 miles of any person mentioned in this rant. Reply Write a Comment Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Notify me of new posts by email.