When smart people want to know how much time, money and money to spend protecting an asset—be it a nuclear missile silo or a corporate server room—they come to me. Or someone like me. As a Risk Analyst, I identify the most likely threat or threats to any given asset, so that its stewards can efficiently allocate resources for its defense. So let’s apply my experience in this new(ish) field to We The Armed Intelligentsia. How much should we be spending on self protection? What risk does violent crime pose to us average Joes?
Risk is defined as the combination of threat, vulnerability, and consequence (R=T*V*C), where threat and vulnerability are expressed over some period of time, usually one year. The result is something called an “annualized loss expectancy,” or how much you expect to lose every year from whatever it is you’re concerned about.
The basic idea: one way or another, you’re going to lose money. It’s better to invest the money now to prevent the bad stuff than to spend the money recovering from its loss. For the purposes of the current question, the annualized loss expectancy would be what we should budget for self protection annually.
OK, so, let’s start with Threat.
What’s the probability that you will be the victim of a violent crime? For our purposes, we’re including a large swath of crimes which have the potential to escalate into murder or injury, including murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary and the generic “violent crime” category as well.
According to the FBI crime statistics for the last two years (for cities with a population of over 100,000, the only reliable raw data I could find), you can expect to be a victim of a violent crime once every 100 years (a 1.081% annual probability), on average, across these United States.
Vulnerability in this sense isn’t “how vulnerable are you to bullets.” It means “GIVEN that you get into a violent confrontation, what’s the probability that you get injured or die?”
This can be difficult to determine; there’s no good database out there with this information. The CDC claims that .006% of the population for the year 2009 was injured by violent crime, while 0.000061% of the population were murdered.
Since this data already includes the “threat” percentage, we have a final value for the combination of threat and vulnerability (since everyone injured by a violent crime had to be involved in a violent crime). We (OK I) can work backwards from this number to determine the “conditional probability” or vulnerability to injury or death from violent crime, by dividing the respective numbers by the threat.
Consequence is a bitch.
Obviously death is a massive consequence. For the individual, there’s no higher price to pay. To put human life into economic terms, analysts use something called the “Value of a Statistical Life” or VSL. The figure that represents the impact of a fatality on the economy of the nation or the finances of a family.
The average college graduate makes just under $50,000, the average age of murder victims is 25, and the average cost of a funeral is about $6,500. So, for a family, the VSL of an income-generating individual is (6500+[(55-25)*50,000]). I make that $1,506,500. Combined with the murder rate, the final economic risk from murder is $91.90.
Injury is a consequence that we can experience ourselves, not something that we have to worry about leaving behind for our families. According to a paper titled “Valuing the costs of violent crime: a stated preference approach” by Giles Atkinson, Andrew Healeyy, and Susana Mouratoz, the costs related to an injury from a violent crime were around $6,000. So, the economic risk posed by injury from a violent crime would be (6000*.006) = $36.
Now that we have final figures for the risk from injury and murder as a result of a violent crime, we can add them together to get our grand total risk. According to the limited information available to me on the internet, the annualized economic loss expectancy from violent crime for an individual is $127.90. Therefore, $127.90 is the amount we should be spending each year on self defense.
The biggest issue with this risk value is the VSL calculation. In reality, there’s no possible way to put a price on the life of a human being. Analysts often do it out of convenience so the “actual” cost of a catastrophic event can be calculated. But putting a price on something so important seems impossible.
At the end of the day it’s your money and your life, and personally I’m going to spend a whole lot more than the price of a Hi-Point 9mm on protecting myself. Of course, if you average my expenditure with the expenditure of thousands of people who spend nothing on self-defense . . .